AI吃掉内存产能，手机厂商要为此买单？

中新经纬02-11

中新经纬2月11日电 (宋亚芬)全球最大智能手机芯片生产商高通与英国半导体设计企业Arm Holdings日前相继发出预警，指出高带宽内存(HBM)的持续短缺将直接限制智能手机产量。原因是由人工智能基础设施驱动的数据中心需求大幅上涨，HBM供应形成显著的“虹吸效应”，令消费电子领域面临持续挤压。IDC报告指出，这本质上是一场零和博弈：每一片分配给英伟达GPU(图形处理器)的HBM芯片，都意味着中端...

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it?","themeId":"2225027f6f0df42586ad42f8d55b4333","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"688981":1.84,"NVDA":1.86,"2NVD.UK":0.6,"NVD2.UK":0.6,"00981":1.84,"NVII":0.6,"NVDS.UK":0.6,"NVDW":0.6,"SNVD.UK":0.6,"3NVD.UK":0.6,"NVD3.UK":0.6,"NVIW.SI":0.6,"NVDY":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"NVD":0.6,"AAPL":0.9,"NVDD":0.6,"NVDL":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"NVDQ":0.6,"NVDX":0.6,"NVDG":0.6,"DIPS":0.6},"content_text":"中新经纬2月11日电 (宋亚芬)全球最大智能手机芯片生产商高通与英国半导体设计企业Arm Holdings日前相继发出预警，指出高带宽内存(HBM)的持续短缺将直接限制智能手机产量。原因是由人工智能基础设施驱动的数据中心需求大幅上涨，HBM供应形成显著的“虹吸效应”，令消费电子领域面临持续挤压。IDC报告指出，这本质上是一场零和博弈：每一片分配给英伟达GPU(图形处理器)的HBM芯片，都意味着中端智能手机的LPDDR5X内存或消费级笔记本电脑的固态硬盘(SSD)将失去对应产能。不过，在中关村信息消费联盟理事长项立刚看来，这更像是“手机芯片的借机炒作”。他指出，HBM芯片并不用在智能手机上。即便人工智能需要大量的HBM芯片，可能会在一定程度上对智能手机的存储芯片有冲击，这个冲击也是比较间接的，而不是直接的冲击。“关键问题是，HBM不可能挤压其他类型芯片，因为并非同一条生产线。当然，厂商可以借着这个机会炒作一轮芯片短缺，把价格涨上去。”他强调。虽然真相难辨，不过，手机芯片价格上涨却已成事实。2月9日，Counterpoint发布的《2月内存价格追踪报告》显示，截至2026年第一季度，内存价格环比上涨80%-90%，NAND闪存价格也同步上涨80%-90%。另据韩媒报道，今年一季度，三星电子、SK海力士与苹果进行了谈判，三星电子拟将iPhone手机所用LPDDR内存价格上调超过80%，而SK海力士则拟将价格上调近100%。在此情况下，成本压力骤增的手机厂商可能不得不继续提价。事实上，这场自去年下半年就已开启的芯片价格上涨潮已经引发手机价格上涨。根据Counterpoint Research最新报告，2025年四季度，全球智能手机平均售价(ASP)同比增长8%，首次在单季度内突破400美元。手机涨价还可能进一步影响消费者的换机时间。工信部信息通信经济专家委员会委员盘和林表示，消费者可能不得不延迟购买，最终对全系列手机产品需求都产生抑制作用，导致品牌手机销量的收缩。但这种涨价对各类手机厂商的影响可能并不是均衡的。IDC报告认为，主打低端市场的制造商将遭受重创。这些厂商的商业模式基于微薄利润，内存成本上涨将严重挤压其利润率，最终不得不将部分或全部成本转嫁给终端用户。而高端市场制造商虽也面临压力，但充足的现金储备和长期供应协议使其能提前12-24个月锁定内存供应。因此，2026年其新旗舰机型可能不会升级内存配置(Pro版或将维持12GB内存，而非提升至16GB)，且旧机型在新款发布后的降价幅度也可能缩小。(中新经纬APP)中新经纬版权所有，未经授权，不得转载或以其他方式使用。责任编辑：袁媛 贾亦夫","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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