光模块和CPO，吵翻了天

估值之家02-11

随着2月初北美AI产业链著名分析师“AYZ”发布一系列关于CPO的增量信息，以及近期Fabrinet、Lumentum、Coherent等公司陆续公布财报及Earings Call，2026年以来关于光模块和CPO的争论，可谓“吵翻了天”，丝毫不逊于当年Blackwell B200机架首次推出后，关于“光退铜进”和“光进铜退”的争论热度。以当红流量“明星”为例，从年初截止到2026年2月8日，“...

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and CPOs are quite noisy","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"300308":1.86,"300394":1.87,"300502":1.86,"3NVD.UK":0.6,"NVIW.SI":0.6,"NVII":0.6,"NVD":0.6,"NVDY":0.6,"NVD2.UK":0.6,"FN":1.88,"NVDA":1.91,"NVDG":0.6,"NVD3.UK":0.6,"NVDW":0.6,"NVDX":0.6,"NVDS.UK":0.6,"NVDD":0.6,"SNVD.UK":0.6,"LITE":0.77,"NVDS":0.6,"2NVD.UK":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"NVDQ":0.6,"DIPS":0.6,"NVDL":0.6},"content_text":"随着2月初北美AI产业链著名分析师“AYZ”发布一系列关于CPO的增量信息，以及近期Fabrinet、Lumentum、Coherent等公司陆续公布财报及Earings Call，2026年以来关于光模块和CPO的争论，可谓“吵翻了天”，丝毫不逊于当年Blackwell B200机架首次推出后，关于“光退铜进”和“光进铜退”的争论热度。以当红流量“明星”为例，从年初截止到2026年2月8日，“易中天”股价出现显著分化，尽管天孚通信(300394.SZ)的2025Q4业绩预告略有miss，但年初至今股价表现最优；而老大哥中际旭创(300308.SZ)和老二哥新易盛（300502.SZ）虽然业绩亮眼，但股价表现略不及预期。图片说明：“易中天”年初至今股价开始分化，数据来源于Wind市场在吵什么？吵架的源头梳理首先是2月2日，“AYZ”在Substack上发布文章《Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) – The Next Big Thing for NVIDIA (2)?》，文中表示，英伟达的最终愿景是打造OIO全光互连的AI服务器机架，为此选择了渐进式策略：第一步，2025年在Scale Out场景推出CPO交换机；第二步，在Scale Up场景的NVSwitch托盘中采用CPO交换机；第三步，在GPGPU芯片上采用CPO封装，最终实现OIO机架。真正引起市场关注的是，“AYZ”在文章中直接给出了“Scale up CPO”方案下Vera Rubin Ultra机架的示意图，并表示Vera Rubin Ultra将采用NVL72 x 2配置，每个机架仍保留现有的NVL72机架设计，计算托盘和交换托盘通过铜线连接。然后，两个相邻机柜的NVSwitch托盘通过CPO和光纤互联，形成拥有144张GPGPU卡（或576个GPU芯片）的Vera Rubin Ultra机架，每个Vera Rubin Ultra GPGPU包含四个GPU芯片。图片说明：CPO方案下的Vera Rubin Ultra机架结构图，数据来源于Substack此外，“AYZ”在文章中表示，Vera Rubin Ultra机架的Scale Out场景中也将采用CPO。具体来说，计算托盘的每个CX10网卡都与一个3.2T光引擎共同封装，然后通过光纤外部连接到NVIDIA的Quantum-X或Spectrum-X系列CPO交换机，每个计算托盘包含4个用于Scale out的CX10网卡（搭配4个Rubin Ultra GPGPU），因此整个Vera Rubin Ultra机架包含144个CPO CX10网卡和3.2光引擎。总的来说，在CPO方案下的Vera Rubin Ultra机架中，Scale Up场景使用了648个光引擎、Scale Out场景使用了144个光引擎，对应单个机架内144个GPGPU，光引擎与GPGPU的比例为5.5比1。图片说明：关于Sacle out层面的CPO方案，数据来源于Substack此后，AYZ在推特上进一步表示，在Vera Rubin机架中，英伟达将强制规定每个机架配备2台Quantum-X或Spectrum-X系列CPO交换机。而在Vera Rubin Ultra机架中，英伟达将强制规定每个机架将额外配备12个CPO NVSwtich托盘。据此，AYZ预计2026年Vera Rubin机架出货量约1万台，对应约2万台CPO交换机（若CPO良率不足，实际出货量可能在1.5~2万台之间）。2027年预计Vera Rubin机架与Vera Rbin Ultra机架合计出货量约10万台，对应至少20万台CPO交换机出货量。图片说明：AYZ关于CPO出货量的预估，数据来源于推特市场在吵什么？光通信企业的反驳与助攻AYZ关于英伟达将于Vera Rubin机架Scale Up和Scale Out场景中大量部署CPO的增量信息，自然是一石激起千层浪，挑动着资本市场那本就紧张无比的神经。首先是北京时间2月2日晚上，英伟达Mellanox的“亲儿子”Fabrinet发布了FY2026Q2财报，这似乎给CPO来了一把“助攻”。Fabrinet在Earnings Call中表示，过去多年以来CPO一直处于“未来”的状态，但目前公司已经感到“未来已来”。目前Fabrinet已经取得了一些关于CPO的营业收入，尽管目前金额相对较小。公司认为，在CPO的商业化方面，Fabrinet的技术和卡位远远领先于该领域的大多竞争对手，Fabrinet正在与三家不同的客户联合开发CPO项目，至于CPO营业收入何时放量，取决于客户的路线图和进度安排。整体来说，因为保密协议的缘故，公司不太愿意透露客户关于CPO放量的节奏问题，但公司对CPO的放量非常期待、非常兴奋。图片说明：Fabrinet回答关于CPO的进展问题，数据来源于Fabrinet FY2026Q2 Earnings Call其次是北京时间2月3日晚上，“老馒头”Lumentum发布了FY2026Q2财报，继Fabrinet后，又给CPO来了一把“火上浇油”。Lumentum在Earnings Call中表示，预计今年四季度会有大约5000万美元（可能更多）的CPO相关订单（主要是CW激光源等）转化为营业收入，同时在2027年上半年将有数亿美元（未透露具体规模）的CPO相关订单转化为营业收入（即对外出货）。图片说明：Lumentum回答关于CPO的订单问题，数据来源于Lumentum FY2026Q2 Earnings Call同时Lumentum表示，预计2027年四季度，关于Scale Up场景的CPO将大幅放量，展望不远的未来，可以合理推测CPO在Scale Up场景的渗透率会快速提升，最终完全代替铜线。图片说明：Lumentum关于CPO大幅放量节奏的判断，数据来源于Lumentum FY2026Q2 Earnings Call再者是北京时间2月4日中午，部分A股上市公司针对该问题，给出了非常明确和清晰的判断，也是对CPO泼了一盆冷水。部分A股上市公司认为，技术切换需要很长的提前期（通常一年以上）进行规划、送样和测试，目前并未看到此类迹象。CPO方案主要由芯片厂商（如英伟达、博通）推动，希望在机柜内与GPU等耦合，可能会向绑定其自身生态的客户优先使用，但这与CSP（云服务提供商）客户的主流选择存在差异。部分A股上市公司与主要CSP客户沟通确认，2026~2027年其网络规划均以可插拔方案为核心，并未听说任何CSP客户计划在今年、明年甚至后年大规模部署CPO。同时部分A股上市公司认为，可插拔光模块的技术将持续演进，公司预计2028年后的3.2T时代，在Scale Out场景中，可插拔光模块仍是最主流的方案。（3.2T时代将存在EML激光器方案与硅光方案并行，目前单波400G EML已进入测试阶段，但硅光方案在成本、产能扩展方面更具优势，预计将成为重要的技术选择）此外，中信证券、广发证券等头部券商，也非常坚定和确信，CPO并不会影响光模块在Scale Out场景中的基本盘，光模块行业被资本市场严重错杀。图片说明：中信证券认为光模块行业被市场严重错杀，数据来源于中信证券最后是北京时间2月4日晚上，Coherent发布了FY2026Q2财报，给部分A股上市公司关于光模块的判断予以了非常明确的支持。Coherent表示，CPO最初的目的是为了在Scale Out场景中应用，但公司相信CPO未来的大幅增长实际上是由Scale Up驱动的。根据公司与CSP们的交流与合作结论，公司认为Scale Up场景中CPO的市场规模将远远超过Scale Out场景，而且会大出好几个数量级。Coherent明确表示，可插拔光模块至少在十年内，都将是Scale Out和Scale Across中的主导形式，并且未来几年还将迎来非常强劲的需求和增长。图片说明：Coherent关于CPO和光模块的观点，数据来源于Coherent FY2026Q2 Earnings Call市场吵出结论了吗？吵架的本质源于分歧，先抛开分歧，综合几大光通信企业的表述，找出共同点，可以得到一个非常明确的结论：Scale Up场景中大规模铺开CPO方案，已经是箭在弦上了，这个增量可能会非常大，“光进铜退”已经是确定性的趋势性变化了。但是，Scale Out场景中，是否会大批量导入CPO方案，目前还存在较大分歧，至少无论Lumentum和Coherent都没有明确表示，未来Scale Out场景一定不会使用CPO方案，至少现在还没有充分的证据，能够完全证伪AYZ关于“Vera Rubin Ultra机架的Scale Out场景中也将采用CPO”这一结论。至于“家大业大”的可插拔光模块企业，能否在CPO方案中啃下一块大的增量？这就好比，如果一个人对“经典力学”的理解已经到了炉火纯青的地步，请问这个人是否能学好“量子力学”？答案或许只有一个：除非开启“上帝视角”，不然量子力学还是量力学吧！最后，估值之家曾于2025年12月31日发布《从800G、1.6T光模块到CPO，MPO光纤跳线从量变到质变》，在文中明确表达了以下三个观点，这三个观点在本文中同样适用：第一，以CPO为例，专业的投资者会通过各种方式来紧密跟踪CPO的放量时间节点，以及北美AI产业链的边际变化，但聪明的投资者或许会思考，是否存在一个免于技术变革困扰的“铲子”行业，在1.6T光模块放量时能吃到红利，进入CPO放量后还可以吃到更大的红利？第二，还记得当初Blackwell机架首次推出后，关于“光退铜进”和“光进铜退”的争论，以及光模块公司和铜缆公司的股价表现吗？换句话说，以简单的“赚业绩或赚估值”来进行股价预期，可能会忽视资本市场的复杂性。第三，无论Scale Up、Scale Out还是Scale 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