微软股票十年来首次比IBM更便宜，AI交易出现新格局

环球市场播报02-10

随著市场消化大型科技公司为2026年制定的雄心勃勃的AI支出计划，微软（Microsoft， MSFT）股价的相对低廉凸显了科技投资领域的一种新格局。　　微软的股票现在比IBM （IBM）的便宜，二者的远期市盈率分别为23.0倍和23.7倍。自1月29日以来，微软的市盈率一直低于IBM。根据道琼斯市场数据（Dow Jones Market Data）的数据，在此之前，上一次出现这种情况是在...

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(USD) ACC","LU0868494617.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - US TOTAL YIELD SUSTAINABLE \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0672654240.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD-H1","LU2125909247.SGD":"Natixis Thematics Meta H-R/A SGD","IE00BMPRXN33.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN 5G CONNECTIVITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1429558221.USD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA USD","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","LU2462157665.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"A\" (USD) INC","LU2264538146.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Global Absolute Alpha A Acc SGD","LU1435385759.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA SGD-H","LU2756315664.SGD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMI\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU0757359368.USD":"SCHRODER ISF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET INCOME \"A\" (USD)  ACC","IE00B3SWFQ91.USD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH \"E\" (USD) INC","IE00BN8TJ469.HKD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A\" (HKD) INC","LU1815333072.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL FOCUS \"AUP\" (USD) INC","LU1316542783.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD","LU1935043023.USD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET DIVERSIFIED INCOME \"AA\" (USD) INC A","LU2271345857.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU0345768740.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL STRATEGIC MANAGED \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0642271901.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD-H","LU1983260115.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Sustainable Equity A2 SGD-H"},"translate_title":"Microsoft stock is cheaper than IBM for the first time in a decade, and new pattern emerges in AI trading","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFU":0.6,"MSFY":0.6,"IBM":1.88,"MSFO":0.6,"MSFT":1.95,"MSFD":0.6,"MSFW":0.6,"MSFL":0.6,"MSFX":0.6},"content_text":"随著市场消化大型科技公司为2026年制定的雄心勃勃的AI支出计划，微软（Microsoft， MSFT）股价的相对低廉凸显了科技投资领域的一种新格局。\n　　微软的股票现在比IBM （IBM）的便宜，二者的远期市盈率分别为23.0倍和23.7倍。自1月29日以来，微软的市盈率一直低于IBM。根据道琼斯市场数据（Dow Jones Market Data）的数据，在此之前，上一次出现这种情况是在2013年7月25日。\n　　这一估值“倒挂”现象最先由Fiscal.ai的X账号指出，表明投资者看待微软和其他斥资数以十亿计美元建设AI基础设施的科技公司的方式发生了变化。\n　　微软以及同为超大规模云服务提供商的Alphabet （GOOGL） （GOOG）、Meta Platforms （META）和亚马逊（Amazon.com， AMZN），预计将在2026年合计支出6，500亿美元资本支出-这比它们在2025年的支出额增加60%，比最初的平均预期高出1，500亿美元。\n　　IBM曾是科技行业的重资产巨头，业务是生产芯片和个人电脑。IBM后来剥离了这些业务，并更加重视其软件和咨询部门。\n　　微软及其同行增加支出，将导致当今的领先科技公司拥有比以往更多的实体基础设施、产生更高的费用、自由现金流减少以及发行更多债务。GW&K Investment Management的基金经理亚伦．克拉克（Aaron Clark）表示，更高的支出水平导致投资者怀疑，大型科技股是否还能像其商业模式较为轻资产时那样获得高估值。\n　　“市场正在纠结这些投资是否值得，”克拉克表示。“这是支出永久性换到高位档，还是一个抢占地盘的阶段、自由现金流最终会回到以前的水平？”他指出，亚马逊和Meta等公司2026年的自由现金流可能转为负值。\n　　自1月28日发布财报以来，微软股价已下跌近14%，这表明投资者对Azure的收入增长速度相对于该公司的资本支出水平感到不满。Melius Research的分析师本．瑞兹（Ben Reitzes）周一将微软的股票评级下调至持有，他写道，Copilot“经过三年的高调宣传”后付费用户竟然只有1，500万，这让他感到“震惊”。\n　　根据FactSet的平均预期，微软有可能在2026日历年将1，150亿美元用于资本支出。\n　　然而，克拉克并不相信IBM未来能够持续获得比微软更高的估值，因为他认为IBM同样容易受到许多AI相关不利因素的影响。如果企业AI的采用难以普及，IBM的咨询和整合服务需求也将减少。\n　　此外，在四大超大规模云服务提供商和甲骨文公司（Oracle， ORCL）中，微软的财务状况相对稳定。根据美国银行（Bank of America）分析师尤里．塞利格（Yuri Seliger）上周的一份报告，微软预计将是2026财年唯一一家现金流超过资本支出的超大规模云服务提供商。\n　　不过，瑞兹不确定微软的现金水平是否一定对该公司有利。瑞兹写道，微软的“业务面临来自AI的威胁，这意味着它需要大幅增加资本支出，才能跟上”Alphabet和亚马逊的步伐。如果该公司“现在不增加支出，这要么反映了执行力问题，要么反映出管理盈余的需要-两者都不是好事。”\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑：于健 SF069","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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