电子行业行业月度报告：存储价格延续上涨，台积电业绩再创新高

中国银河02-09

（以下内容从中国银河《电子行业行业月度报告：存储价格延续上涨，台积电业绩再创新高》研报附件原文摘录）核心观点：1月存储市场延续2025年四季度以来的强势上涨态势，DRAM和NAND闪存价格涨幅持续超预期。三星电子、SK海力士等头部厂商一季度合约价大幅上调，其中NAND闪存供应价格上调超100%，DRAM价格涨幅达60%-70%。涨价核心驱动因素包括：AI服务器对HBM需求爆发、数据中心资本开支加码...

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High","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"TSMU":0.6,"03986":0.9,"03145":0.6,"STSM":0.6,"TSMZ":0.6,"06809":0.9,"TSMX":0.6,"TSM":1.93,"TSMG":0.6,"TSMY":0.6},"content_text":"（以下内容从中国银河《电子行业行业月度报告：存储价格延续上涨，台积电业绩再创新高》研报附件原文摘录）核心观点：1月存储市场延续2025年四季度以来的强势上涨态势，DRAM和NAND闪存价格涨幅持续超预期。三星电子、SK海力士等头部厂商一季度合约价大幅上调，其中NAND闪存供应价格上调超100%，DRAM价格涨幅达60%-70%。涨价核心驱动因素包括：AI服务器对HBM需求爆发、数据中心资本开支加码、产能结构性调整等，供需缺口持续扩大，预计本轮涨价周期将延续至2026年中。目前存储涨价已对下游产业链产生显著冲击，消费电子终端厂商面临成本压力。根据TrendForce数据，2026年全球智能手机出货量预计年减2%，笔记本电脑Q1出货量可能减少14.8%。存储产品占手机BOM成本10%-20%，成本上涨将倒逼厂商调整产品结构和定价策略。台积电25Q4单季度业绩大超预期，业绩创历史新高。台积电25Q4实现营收337.3亿美元，同比增长25.5%，环比增长1.9%，超出此前322-334亿美元的指引区间上限。净利润约163亿美元，同比增长35%，环比增长11.8%毛利率达到62.3%，同比提升3.3个百分点，环比提升2.8个百分点，创历史新高。营业利润率54%，净利率48.3%，均显著超出市场预期。制程结构优化，先进制程收入占比达77%，其中3nm制程占比28%，5nm占比35%7nm占比14%。3nm制程已于2025年Q4进入大规模量产，良率表现良好，成为营收增长的核心引擎。成熟制程收入占比23%，呈现结构性复苏态势。被动元器件与模拟产品价格提升，成本驱动为主因。1月被动元件市场迎来新一轮涨价潮。国巨、风华高科、顺络电子等头部厂商陆续发布涨价函，涨幅普遍在5%-30%之间。涨价主要受白银、铜、锡等原材料价格上涨驱动，叠加AI服务器、新能源汽车等高端需求增长。其中，MLCC、电感、电阻等产品价格均有不同程度上涨。ADI、德州仪器等海外巨头1月宣布涨价，涨幅10%-30%。国内模拟芯片厂商部分跟进调价。涨价原因包括晶圆代工成本上升、车规级和工业级需求旺盛、8英寸产能紧张等。模拟芯片作为电子系统基础器件，涨价将传导至下游多个应用领域。投资建议：我们认为，当前时点是存储芯片赛道下一轮周期的新起点，在AI服务器需求高速增长叠加国产替代，看好国内存储产业链相关上市公司的投资机遇。建议关注相关IC设计厂商兆易创新、普冉股份、东芯股份、北京君正、澜起科技，以及存储模组厂商：德明利、香农芯创、江波龙等。同时建议关注AI相关PCB公司，包括胜宏科技、沪电股份、景旺电子、科翔股份。风险提示：下游需求不及预期的风险，同业竞争格局加剧的风险，新品研发不及预期的风险，供应链转移导致不确定性增加的风险。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"dataReport","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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