伯恩斯坦看多苹果：内存成本影响被夸大 AI将增强用户粘性

环球市场播报02-12

苹果股票投资者近来似乎过度关注内存成本飙升的问题。不过，伯恩斯坦（Bernstein）的分析师Mark Newman认为，他们关注错了重点，应该把目光转向人工智能（AI）。　　基于这一判断，Newman将苹果的目标价从325美元上调至340美元。　　不过，投资者担忧内存成本也并非毫无依据。事实上，在苹果发布又一份强劲季度财报后，CEO Tim Cook在电话会上专门谈到了内存成本问题。　　他...

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Cook在电话会上专门谈到了内存成本问题。\n　　他表示，从内存角度看，对第一财季的影响很小，也就是对12月季度毛利率影响有限。但预计会对第二财季毛利率产生更明显影响，这一点已经体现在48%至49%的业绩指引中。\n　　当被追问内存成本是否会成为iPhone 18提价的一个杠杆时，Cook并未正面回应。这种谨慎态度表明，苹果仍在权衡选项，新一代iPhone产品线的成本与定价结构显然尚未完全敲定。\n　　知名苹果分析师Ming-Chi Kuo则认为，至少在目前阶段，苹果整体策略不会出现重大变化，公司很可能在iPhone 18发布前延续既有路线。\n　　苹果的一贯打法很清晰：在市场动荡时锁定芯片供应、先行消化成本、扩大市场份额，再通过服务业务把利润赚回来。\n　　尽管内存成本上升确实构成压力，Newman认为，真正能推动股价进入下一阶段上涨的是Apple Intelligence和Siri 2.0，而不是内存价格本身。他指出，苹果的混合式AI架构可能开启一个重要的新一轮换机周期，这个故事比内存通胀更关键。\n　　华尔街对苹果的最新目标价如下：\n　　Wedbush：350美元（跑赢大盘）\n　　高盛：330美元（买入）\n　　摩根大通：325美元（增持）\n　　美银证券：325美元（买入）\n　　摩根士丹利：315美元（增持）\n　　Newman在接受采访时表示，尽管内存成本通胀是个重要问题，但并不会从根本上削弱苹果强大的盈利能力。当然，他也预计iPhone的生产成本会上升。\n　　他补充说，零部件成本上涨可能会推动iPhone价格最高上调约15%；同时，一部分消费者转向更便宜机型，会使整体平均售价仍提升约12%。\n　　成本上行幅度不小——自2025年第二季度以来，移动DRAM合约价已飙升237%，NAND价格上涨约70%。\n　　即便如此，Newman认为苹果凭借卓越执行力明显优于竞争对手，依靠规模优势、对供应链的议价能力、产品结构以及持久的定价权来消化压力。苹果已发展为一个拥有“封闭生态”的平台型公司，用户粘性很高，在成本飙升时期尤为重要。\n　　伯恩斯坦的模型显示，在内存压力下，到2027年第四季度iPhone毛利率可能累计下降近1.5个百分点。但Newman认为，这对每股收益的影响将被更高利润率的服务收入、产品结构改善以及积极的成本管理大幅抵消。\n　　AI战略的重要性高于成本压力\n　　Newman看多苹果的核心逻辑在于AI。他认为，苹果并不是把AI只做成聊天机器人，而是把AI作为系统级能力嵌入生态体系，从而提升用户粘性。\n　　其基础是混合式架构：尽量在设备端完成请求，把更复杂的推理任务通过“私有云计算”转交给Google的Gemini模型处理。这种方案既保证隐私定位，又能提供先进功能与响应能力。\n　　与许多同行不同，苹果并不执着于赢得AI基准测试或直接把AI能力快速变现；只要AI功能能改变用户行为、带动更健康的服务收入增长，就已经足够。\n　　早期调研也支持这一逻辑。根据Investing.com引用的摩根士丹利2025年4月调查，51%的iPhone用户表示“极有可能”在未来12个月内升级手机；与前一次调查相比，他们为Apple Intelligence每月支付9.11美元的意愿提高了12%。\n　　据报道，Siri 2.0（Apple Intelligence的下一阶段）预计将在2026年春季推出。\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑：陈钰嘉","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"dataReport","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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