贝莱德大中华区陆文杰：中国经济2026将保持强劲增长，电力和医疗健康确定性更好

华尔街见闻02-09

外资对中国经济和全球经济的看法究竟如何？当A股市场完成了一轮上涨后，他们的看法有何改变？面对AI的大潮，他们对各个行业的机会和风险又有什么判断？贝莱德大中华区投资策略师陆文杰日前在贝莱德中国2026投资展望会上发表了他的最新观点。 AI或将迎来新一轮历史性建设浪潮面对风起云涌的AI发展，陆文杰认为，AI或将迎来新一轮历史性建设浪潮。AI领域的投资金额巨大，对全球经济的结构造成了显著影响。...

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\n陆文杰同时认为，美国的货币政策未来应该还是会偏鸽派。从目前的市场情况看，今年降息两次也合理，考虑到AI对劳动力的替代效应越来越明显，美联储后续关注就业风险应当会多于通胀。\n他还提及前几天的黄金价格大跌，其实是市场在给央行的独立性投票。之前黄金涨的基础，在于大家担心美元资产下跌、债务失控，而美联储新主席的提名部分打消了央行被政府债务绑架的担心，成了触发了金价下跌的因素。\n中国经济会保持强劲增长\n陆文杰同时认为，2026中国经济会继续保持全球的领先地位，而出口增速是最重要变量。\n他认为，在全球经济格局当中，中国经济是很重要的，作用很大。中国经济的二元分化效应突出：制造、出口很强，房地产不断下跌，消费不温不火。今年会很可能会延续这样的格局。而这其实已经很不容易了，特别是出口，能够保持这样强的增长其实超越了全世界大部分投资者的预期。\n他认为， 2024年下半年，企业的盈利见底，逐渐向上反弹。今年PPI还能再恢复一些，中国还是以制造业为主的经济体，PPI恢复对企业盈利的帮助非常直接。如果看A股，分行业的盈利修正也可以看到，其实就是传统行业，包括原材料的行业，金融、工业的行业，它的盈利修正很明显，。这样的反弹，不会像V字型反弹那么快，是基本面更扎实的反弹，这个趋势里面有很明显的投资机会。\n电力成为科技股的“新制约”\n陆文杰还认为，在AI投资方面，确定性最高的其实是电力。\n他认为，AI投资有两个根本的限制，一个是资金是否充足,另一个是电力是否充足。\n资金方面，科技行业的盈利增长完全跟得上股价的增长，也有充足的资金继续保持高速投资，资产负债表足够健康，可以从资本市场融资。\n但电力方面，全球情况就差异很大了。预测显示，现在到2030年AI的电力消耗会翻倍。他认为，美国不可能在4、5年时间内新建满足这么多发电量的项目。所以美国大概率会发生缺电，只是时间早晚的问题。\n由此，海外目前的电力投资对全世界产业链的拉动都非常明显，很多中国公司也从中受益。中国制造的电力设备毫无疑问是全世界最强的。无论新能源，还是传统能源都是如此。在缺电的情况下不可能不采购中国制造的电力设备，所以电力设备和技术是AI衍生出来的一个确定性高的投资方向。\n医疗健康是被忽略的创新力量\n陆文杰还认为，医疗健康也是全世界范围内值得被重视的一个行业和投资方向。医疗健康现在是估值偏低的行业，这两年涨得并不多。但其实，AI对它也有推动作用，无论是新药开发还是医疗服务方面。医疗健康是稳定器，当大家把投资集中在科技主题上时，像医疗健康这种能够稳定发展，还有AI推动的行业，是难得的投资方向。\n另外，消费方面，美国有突出的结构性特点，消费能力最强的是婴儿潮的这代人，也就是1945年到1965年出生的这代人，他们工作的时候劳动者收入较高。1965年美国社会保障法实施后，又有养老金保障。工作收入、养老金投资积累和房产投资让他们消费能力很强，而老年人最重要的消费就是保健品、医疗健康。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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