AI补贴战硝烟起，茶饮股价渔翁利｜中环观察

21世纪经济报道02-06

2月6日，阿里巴巴旗下AI应用千问APP正式上线春节30亿大免单活动，首轮攻势便是向全国用户派发免费奶茶。　　这场突如其来的奶茶雨不仅在瞬间点燃了消费者的热情，导致千问APP服务器一度宕机，更在资本市场上掀起波澜。　　港股茶饮板块当日集体走强，截至2月6日收盘，茶百道（02555.HK）涨幅6.08%表现最为亮眼，古茗（01364.HK）涨幅3.58%股价创历史新高，沪上阿姨（02589.HK）...

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Observation","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"89988":0.6,"KBAB":0.6,"ALBmain":0.6,"BBYY":0.6,"02555":1.88,"01364":1.86,"AI":0.89,"BABO":0.6,"HBBD.SI":0.6,"BABW":0.6,"BABX":0.6},"content_text":"2月6日，阿里巴巴旗下AI应用千问APP正式上线春节30亿大免单活动，首轮攻势便是向全国用户派发免费奶茶。　　这场突如其来的奶茶雨不仅在瞬间点燃了消费者的热情，导致千问APP服务器一度宕机，更在资本市场上掀起波澜。　　港股茶饮板块当日集体走强，截至2月6日收盘，茶百道（02555.HK）涨幅6.08%表现最为亮眼，古茗（01364.HK）涨幅3.58%股价创历史新高，沪上阿姨（02589.HK）当日涨幅1.15%。　　茶饮股的“意外之喜”　　一场由互联网巨头掀起的AI用户争夺战，意外地让新茶饮行业成为了渔翁得利者。　　近年来，新茶饮市场规模增速已明显放缓。根据行业报告显示，2025年中国新茶饮市场规模虽然预计将突破3000亿元大关，但行业增速已从过去动辄20%以上的高速增长回落至个位数。　　在此背景下，来自外部巨头的流量和补贴，无异于一剂兴奋剂。它不仅在春节消费旺季前夕直接拉动了终端门店的销售额，更重要的是，它以一种极低成本的方式，为参与活动的茶饮品牌带来巨大的品牌曝光和新客引流。对于茶饮企业而言，这几乎是一笔稳赚不赔的买卖。　　事实上，这并非茶饮股首次因平台补贴战而受益。回顾2025年7月的外卖大战，当时淘宝闪购宣布启动500亿元补贴计划，与美团展开激烈竞争，茶饮股同样迎来了一波上涨行情。　　然而，这种上涨态势在当时并未能一直持续。随着外卖补贴逐渐退潮，茶饮股的热度也迅速降温，不少企业的股价也出现了回落。　　古茗股价在2025年6月20日报22港元，于7月7日升至短期高点28.57港元后便一路走低，至同年9月已回落至20港元左右。奈雪的茶亦呈现相似走势，其股价在6月20日报1.17港元，虽于7月2日一度涨至1.81港元的短期高点，随后却持续下跌，截至同年10月，已回落至1.2港元附近。　　百万奶茶订单背后的AI争夺战　　根据活动规则，用户只需更新千问APP至最新版，即可领取最多21张面值25元的无门槛奶茶免单卡，总价值高达525元。　　“真金白银”的补贴效果立竿见影。据阿里方面透露，活动上线不到3小时，通过千问APP产生的奶茶订单便已突破100万单。　　这样的撒钱竞争，在未来可能成为常态。　　“平台企业的竞争本质上是生存维度的升维对抗，这种竞争不仅会持续，更会演变为一种长期的常态化对峙。”北京市社会科学院副研究员王鹏对21世纪经济报道记者表示。　　王鹏进一步指出，入口之争决定了企业在价值链中的话语权。虽然前期对基础设施的投入会显著摊薄当期利润，导致财务报表在短期内出现波动，但这是从人力密集型转向算力驱动型必然经历的阵痛。一旦形成用户粘性与场景闭环，企业将获得边际成本极低的扩张能力。如果放弃入口竞争，企业将面临被边缘化的系统性风险。因此，这种投入被视为一种确保未来现金流确定性的入场券。　　野村中国互联网与媒体分析师郭潜钰对此持相似观点。她对21世纪经济报道记者表示，港股平台企业在AI应用上的竞争还处于早期阶段，即使是底层基础大模型还在进化中，AI时代to C端应用的最终产品形态尚在探索，真正取得用户心智的产品还未出现。正因如此，各家企业都在抢占AI时代C端用户的流量入口和心智，因为AI的发展极有可能改变用户行为和时长分配。　　她强调，这场竞争的本质，是为了抢夺用户和数据——越多的用户产生越多的数据，会进一步优化AI模型的迭代速度，形成正向循环。　　不过，资本市场对此并不感冒。发起此次补贴活动的阿里巴巴（09988.HK）股价出现回调，当日收报155港元，下跌2.88%。这与2025年7月外卖补贴大战时的市场反应相似：在7月5日美团与阿里巴巴两大平台放出大量大额红包券后，首个交易日（7月7日）美团股价盘中一度跌超4%，阿里巴巴亦跌超2.5%。平台企业在补贴大战中的短期成本压力引发了市场对其盈利能力的担忧。　　郭潜钰表示，目前的AI应用入口竞争会对企业盈利造成短期压力，但最终的胜出者需要优秀的基础大模型作为基础，叠加优秀的产品设计。从长期来看，拥有了用户流量入口和心智就有了巨大的商业化前景。　　摩根大通私人银行亚洲股票策略主管冯兆邦此前对21世纪经济报道记者表示，近期由大型科技企业投入巨资进行的红包大战，目前企业对此投入资源不大，其对企业长期利润率的根本性影响有限。因此，由此造成的股价短期回调，反而可能为长期投资者提供了买入时机。　　市场数据显示，2月6日，港股市场北水成交净买入148.59亿港元，其中，净买入最多的个股是腾讯、阿里巴巴、南方恒生科技。（文章来源：21世纪经济报道）","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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