非银金融行业：如何看待当前保险股的配置价值？

中信建投证券02-08

核心观点近期大量存款陆续到期背景下，分红险为代表的储蓄险有望凭借其收益高、期限长的优势持续承接居民长期稳健增值需求，叠加头部险企把握银保价值率改善机遇加大布局，有望带动新单和NBV快速增长。资产端看好权益市场春季躁动行情增厚利润，利率企稳回升支撑险资长期回报中枢，叠加NBV 增速有望保持高景气，有望带动估值持续抬升。摘要证券：当前券商板块估值处于历史低位而政策红利明确，2026 年有望迎来估值修复...

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年有望迎来估值修复与业绩增长的戴维斯双击。2025 年前三季度上市券商年化ROE 已达7.1%，对应PB 估值在8 月峰值仅1.60 倍、三季度末1.47 倍、2 月6 日1.36 倍，显著低于历史同ROE 水平的估值区间，存在明显修复空间。宽松的货币环境与外资流入共同注入增量资金，同时“十五五”聚焦的科技突破与内需复苏推动企业盈利回升，叠加资本市场改革深化提升信心，政策组合拳将全面激活市场交投热情。 重点推荐具备差异化竞争优势的三类券商：一是国际化业务领先、估值修复空间大的头部券商；二是大资管业务占比较高、具备业绩韧性的券商；三是综合实力强劲、各业务条线均衡发展的行业龙头。保险：当前保险板块正迎来资负两端的共振改善，有望实现业绩增长与估值修复的戴维斯双击，长期配置价值显著。从产品角度看，近期大量存款陆续到期背景下，分红险为代表的储蓄险有望凭借其收益更高、期限更长的优势持续承接居民长期稳健增值需求，支撑新单和NBV 快速增长，“开门红”表现有望超预期。2025 年人身险公司寿险保费同比+11.4%。从渠道角度看，“报行合一”带动银保渠道价值率显著提升后头部险企持续加大布局，银保渠道预计负债端增长核心胜负手。资产端来看， 看好权益市场春季行情增厚投资业绩，战略投资者政策利好拓宽险资权益配置渠道，通过锁价发行方式可能享受更有利的买入价格，并且通过OCI 股票或权益法计量可有效避免市场波动对利润的扰动。估值方面，利率企稳回升有望带动存量业务价值重估，而储蓄险旺盛需求有望抬高未来NBV 增速中枢，存量与增量业务共振下上市险企估值提升仍有空间。截至2 月6 日收盘，国寿/平安/太保/新华2026 年A 股PEV 分别为0.79/0.74/0.65/0.80 倍，处于过去10 年的42-66%，H 股PEV 分别为0.50/0.68/0.50/0. 53 倍，处于过去10 年的43-78%。风险分析市场价格波动的不确定性：资本市场价格的影响因素较多，包括宏观经济的波动、全球经济形势的变化以及投资者情绪的波动，都可能引发股价变动，或对券商、保险公司等机构的估值造成影响，而非银金融行业的业绩受市场价格和交易量的影响较大。企业盈利预测不确定性：证券、保险行业的盈利受到多种因素的影响，报告针对行业估值、业绩的预测存在一定的不确定性，此外行业内部竞争的加剧也可能导致预测结果出现偏差。技术更新迭代：新兴技术的快速发展要求金融机构不断跟进并适应技术变革的步伐，然而技术更新迭代速度加快也带来了高昂的研发投入和人才培训成本，可能增加券商及保险公司经营成本，同时技术创新的爆发具有一定的不确定性。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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