三星、海力士突改规则，硅谷巨头被迫“按月结账”？AI 正在制造一场新的硬件危机

橙芯视界02-08

2026 年 2 月，全球半导体供应链传来了一则令业界不安的消息。为了争夺紧缺的 AI 存储资源，曾经掌握绝对话语权的北美科技巨头（Google, Meta, Microsoft, Amazon）正在失去定价权。据最新报道，存储三巨头（三星、SK 海力士、美光）已开始推行一种全新的“后结算”机制，并拒绝签署长期固定价格合约。与此同时，高通在最新的财报电话会议中发出的库存预警，进一步证实了这场由 ...

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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n三星、海力士突改规则，硅谷巨头被迫“按月结账”？AI 正在制造一场新的硬件危机\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-02-08 22:04 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260208220842a48b63ad&s=b><strong>橙芯视界</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>2026 年 2 月，全球半导体供应链传来了一则令业界不安的消息。为了争夺紧缺的 AI 存储资源，曾经掌握绝对话语权的北美科技巨头（Google, Meta, Microsoft, Amazon）正在失去定价权。据最新报道，存储三巨头（三星、SK 海力士、美光）已开始推行一种全新的“后结算”机制，并拒绝签署长期固定价格合约。与此同时，高通在最新的财报电话会议中发出的库存预警，进一步证实了这场由 ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260208220842a48b63ad&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU1366333091.USD","symbol_name":"FIDELITY GLOBAL FOCUS \"A\" (USD) ACC","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260208220842a48b63ad&s=b","article_id":"2609785571","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"tencent","url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260208220842a48b63ad&s=b","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}#news_title{font-weight:bold;#titleStyle#;}#news_description span{font-size:12px;#descriptionStyle#;}.footer-note{#statement#}","selectors":".mod-LoadTzbdNews, body","filters":".relate-stock, .hot-list, .recom-box, .wx-sou","directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2609785571","pubTimestamp":1770559444,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"tencent","name":"腾讯"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"据最新报道，存储三巨头 已开始推行一种全新的“后结算”机制，并拒绝签署长期固定价格合约。然而，这一行业惯例正在被打破。在 AI 军备竞赛结束前，这种强势地位预计将维持。互动探讨存储厂商通过改变定价规则，事实上将 AI 硬件的高昂成本转嫁给了整个产业链。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"qq.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"LU1366333091.USD":"FIDELITY GLOBAL FOCUS \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4598":"佩洛西持仓","MULL":"2倍做多MU ETF-GraniteShares","LU2023250504.SGD":"Allianz Thematica Cl AMg DIS H2-SGD","BK4515":"5G概念","LU0889566641.SGD":"FTSF - Templeton Shariah Global Equity A Acc SGD","LU0081259029.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND - TECH OPPORTUNITY \"P\" (USD) ACC","QCMD":"1倍做空QCOM ETF-Direxion","LU1119994496.HKD":"FIDELITY WORLD \"A\" (HKD) ACC","QCML":"2倍做多QCOM ETF-GraniteShares","QCMU":"2倍做多QCOM ETF-Direxion","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","LU0868494708.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - US TOTAL YIELD SUSTAINABLE \"P\" (USD) INC","SG9999001424.SGD":"United E-Commerce Fund SGD","BK4023":"应用软件","IE00B7SZLL34.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc SGD-H","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","LU1261432733.SGD":"Fidelity World A-ACC-SGD","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","LU0203347892.USD":"SCHRODER ISF QEP GLOBAL ACTIVE VALLUE \"A\" (USD)  INC AV","LU2250418816.HKD":"BGF WORLD TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4605":"半导体精选","IE00BGHQDM52.EUR":"GUINNESS ASIAN EQUITY INCOME \"C\" (EUR) ACC","LU0274383776.USD":"MANULIFE GF US SMALL CAP EQUITY \"AA\" (USD) INC","LU0203345920.USD":"SCHRODER ISF QEP GLB ACT. 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AI is creating a new hardware crisis","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"QCMD":0.6,"QCOM":1.86,"MU":1.88,"MULL":0.6,"QCMU":0.6,"QCML":0.6,"MUU":0.6,"MUD":0.6},"content_text":"2026 年 2 月，全球半导体供应链传来了一则令业界不安的消息。为了争夺紧缺的 AI 存储资源，曾经掌握绝对话语权的北美科技巨头（Google, Meta, Microsoft, Amazon）正在失去定价权。据最新报道，存储三巨头（三星、SK 海力士、美光）已开始推行一种全新的“后结算”机制，并拒绝签署长期固定价格合约。与此同时，高通在最新的财报电话会议中发出的库存预警，进一步证实了这场由 AI 产能挤兑引发的“多米诺骨牌效应”正在向手机和 PC 端蔓延。1. 规则突变：长期合约失效，巨头被迫接受“后结算”在过去的存储采购模式中，云服务提供商（CSP）通常利用庞大的采购规模与存储原厂签署年度或季度的长期协议（LTA），以锁定价格和供应量。然而，这一行业惯例正在被打破。转向短期合约： TrendForce 的报告指出，三星、SK 海力士和美光目前倾向于与大客户签署季度甚至月度的短期合约，拒绝锁定长期的固定价格。这一策略表明，存储厂商对未来价格上涨持高度确定的态度，不愿过早出让利润空间。引入“后结算”机制： 更为关键的变化在于结算方式的调整。部分交易开始采用“后结算（Post-Settlement）”条款，即先发货，最终结算价格参考当月的市场现货均价进行调整。这种通常仅见于现货市场的定价模式被引入到百亿美元级别的 B2B 交易中，标志着卖方市场格局的确立。为了确保 HBM（高带宽内存）和企业级 SSD 的优先供应，科技巨头不得不接受这一更为苛刻的定价规则。2. 高通预警：AI 产能挤兑引发边缘侧短缺TrendForce 揭示了云端市场的供需紧张，而高通（Qualcomm）在 2026 财年第一季度财报电话会议上的表态，则证实了这种紧张局势对边缘侧（智能手机、PC）的传导效应。HBM 挤占通用产能： 高通管理层在会议中指出，由于存储供应商将大量晶圆产能和封装资源向 HBM 倾斜以满足 AI 数据中心需求，导致标准型 DRAM（如 LPDDR5X）的产能被压缩。HBM 的生产不仅消耗更多的晶圆面积，其复杂的封装工艺也占用了大量设备资源。全行业供应紧张： 高通警告称，这种产能置换正在导致全行业的内存供应短缺。对于正在积极筹备“AI 手机”和“AI PC”的终端厂商而言，这将直接转化为采购成本的上升和供应链的不确定性。尽管终端需求并未出现爆发式增长，但由于供给侧的结构性调整，通用存储产品价格已被动推高。3. 市场分化：2026 年存储产业的“K 型”走势综合多方信息，2026 年的存储市场呈现出明显的结构性分化特征：高端市场（AI/HBM/eSSD）： 受 AI 算力建设驱动，需求持续强劲。云服务商对 HBM3e 和大容量企业级 SSD 的需求价格弹性极低，更看重供应的及时性。这使得存储原厂在该细分领域拥有极强的议价能力。通用市场（消费电子/通用 DRAM）： 受产能转移影响，供应趋紧。尽管智能手机和 PC 市场的复苏依然缓慢，但由于上游产能被抽离，通用 DRAM 面临“被动去库存”和价格上涨的压力。高通等芯片厂商及其下游客户将不得不应对成本上升的挑战。“橙芯”视点1. 存储厂商盈利能力的修复通过引入“后结算”和缩短合约周期，存储厂商正在利用 AI 带来的结构性机会，快速修复过去两年因行业下行导致的资产负债表受损。这种定价机制的转变，本质上是供应链话语权从买方向卖方的转移。在 AI 军备竞赛结束前，这种强势地位预计将维持。2. 终端硬件成本的传导风险对于智能手机和 PC 厂商而言，2026 年将面临严峻的成本控制考验。为了支持端侧 AI 功能，内存容量的升级（如从 8GB 升至 16GB）已成为刚需，但单位存储成本的同步上涨将形成“剪刀差”。这种成本压力最终可能通过提高终端售价或削减其他配置（如屏幕、影像模组）的方式传导给消费者。3. 供应链脆弱性的再现虽然此次短缺的核心不是逻辑芯片，而是高附加值的存储芯片，但其对产业链的冲击逻辑相似。当全球晶圆厂的先进产能集中服务于 AI 数据中心时，传统消费电子领域的供应链弹性将显著下降。这种由单一热门应用挤占全行业资源的现象，暴露了半导体供应链在应对结构性需求突变时的脆弱性。互动探讨存储厂商通过改变定价规则，事实上将 AI 硬件的高昂成本转嫁给了整个产业链。作为消费者，如果 2026 年的新款手机或电脑因内存成本上涨而提价 10%-20%，您是否愿意为了尚未完全普及的“端侧 AI 功能”买单？欢迎在评论区分享您的观点。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"policyRegulatory","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2609785571","isCrawlerRequest":true}