报道：微软在软件与云业务间实现精准平衡

环球市场播报02-08

微软首席执行官萨提亚・纳德拉　　微软正遭遇华尔街的冷遇。过去数月，该公司股价表现落后于标普 500 指数，上周三发布财报后股价大幅下跌，以营业利润市盈率计算，其股价跌至 2022 年以来的最低水平。投资者的此番反应，源于市场高度关注的微软 Azure 云计算业务增长略有放缓，但他们却忽略了更核心的大局。　　微软首席财务官埃米・胡德上周向分析师透露，若能调配更多计算资源，Azure 本季度的...

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指数，上周三发布财报后股价大幅下跌，以营业利润市盈率计算，其股价跌至 2022 年以来的最低水平。投资者的此番反应，源于市场高度关注的微软 Azure 云计算业务增长略有放缓，但他们却忽略了更核心的大局。\n　　微软首席财务官埃米・胡德上周向分析师透露，若能调配更多计算资源，Azure 本季度的增长速度本可以更快，但微软反而将大量计算资源倾斜至企业软件业务。这一决策实则合乎情理：软件业务是微软规模最大、利润最高的业务板块，毛利率稳定在 81% 左右；而以 Azure 为核心的智能云业务毛利率不仅比软件业务低约 20 个百分点，还在持续走低，这意味着 Azure 的增长正给微软整体毛利率带来下行压力。\n　　不过，软件业务的增长能够抵消这一压力，而微软也正精准完成这一平衡操作。自各类人工智能新服务推出以来，微软过去数年的整体毛利率一直稳定在 68% 左右。同时，微软对成本的管控成效显著，正如凯邦资本市场的软件行业分析师杰克逊・阿德所言，自 2023 年初推出 Copilot 人工智能软件工具套件以来，微软的营业利润率已从约 41% 提升至 47% 以上。\n　　微软大力推广 Office 365 Copilot 等人工智能驱动的软件产品，这一策略已初见成效。公司高管上周披露，去年四季度 Copilot 付费用户数达到 1500 万，同比激增 160%。尽管从整体规模来看，这一数字仍显微薄 —— 截至 2024 年，微软 Office 产品付费用户已达 4 亿，但 Copilot 的订阅用户数已是谷歌 Gemini Enterprise 服务的两倍。阿德近期对软件经销商开展的一项调查显示，31% 的经销商客户正高度关注 GitHub Copilot—— 这款嵌入微软开发者软件的人工智能助手。\n　　值得关注的是，微软涵盖 Copilot 在内的生产力和业务流程核心板块，本财年上半年营收增速从 2025 财年全年的 13% 加快至约 16%。\n　　然而，据金融数据平台 Koyfin 数据显示，截至上周五，微软未来一年的预期税息折旧及摊销前利润市盈率仅为 15.2 倍，低于 2021 年初以来 20.5 倍的平均水平；即便与 ServiceNow 这家规模远小于微软、但增长速度相近的企业软件公司相比，微软也处于估值折价状态，而 ServiceNow 的盈利能力远逊于微软，其营业利润率仅在十几个百分点的低位，反观微软则保持在 40% 以上。\n\n　　微软投资者、财富管理公司西伯特金融首席投资官马克・马利克表示，看好微软的投资者认为，当下正是布局微软的良机。他称，此次股价大跌属于市场过度反应，“考虑到微软 28% 的每股收益增速、合理的产品组合以及深厚的业务积淀，我认为公司的运营管理堪称出色。”\n　　看空微软的观点，主要源于其软件业务的未来存在不确定性 —— 该业务贡献了微软超半数的利润。无论是老牌软件企业还是初创公司，纷纷推出各类新人工智能工具，这可能对市场上现有的企业软件产品形成冲击。\n　　微软并未将 365 Copilot 打造为独立产品，而是将其纳入现有的 Office 365 产品体系，这意味着客户需支付额外费用才能使用该功能。对于不愿订阅该增值服务的企业，可通过 Copilot 聊天服务按使用量付费，但这一方式的成本可能更高。微软当前面临的挑战在于，如何确保企业客户不会直接用其他人工智能产品替代现有软件，从而维持其在微软软件产品上的支出规模。\n　　另一大疑问是，微软能否跟上年轻竞争对手的步伐。理论风投普通合伙人、风险投资家托马什・通古斯本周四在《信息》杂志的科技投资电视节目中表示，Copilot 虽抢占了先发优势，但如今已开始显露出落伍迹象。他以 Anthropic 公司的 Claude Cowork 创新成果、代码辅助工具 Cursor 的崛起为例称：“微软的创新力度已有所不足，发展势头也远不及行业内其他企业。” 他认为，市场有理由担忧未来选择升级 Copilot 的企业会有所减少。\n　　尽管如此，微软拥有深厚的行业先发优势，企业客户不太可能迅速转投其他厂商，这也为微软追赶竞争对手赢得了时间。Copilot 为客户提供了多款人工智能模型的选择空间，客户可通过与微软现有产品深度集成的软件，充分利用新模型的创新成果，这一点足以让客户在考虑转投竞品服务前再三斟酌。\n　　对于看空微软软件业务前景的投资者而言，其云业务为布局该公司提供了另一重理由。西伯特金融的马利克表示，他对微软的乐观预期，更多源于 Azure 背后的长期基础设施布局 —— 该业务目前的需求已超出其供应能力，而非对其软件业务的信心。\n　　在 Azure 云业务方面，微软面临着所有头部云计算企业共同的风险：企业需投入巨额资本支出，打造搭载大量图形处理器的人工智能数据中心，且这些投资能否带来可观回报，目前尚无定论。\n　　但在马利克看来，微软的处境优于大多数同行。他表示：“我们都知道，云计算是资本高度密集的行业。微软的营收规模足以支撑这样的投入，资产负债表上的现金储备也能为其保驾护航；而反观 CoreWeave 这类同样在布局人工智能基础设施的企业，它们既没有微软这样的营收规模，也缺乏成熟的大型业务体系作为支撑。”CoreWeave 是一家新兴云计算企业，正试图在人工智能领域与头部云计算厂商展开竞争。\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑：丁文武","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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