任泽平赴美考察后提醒：AI不是风口，是海啸

泽平宏观02-07

刚从美国回来，我才明白马斯克说的“超音速海啸”是什么意思。亲历CES和硅谷后，我只有一个感觉：震撼！一个新时代真的来了。\x0a\x0aAI不是风口，是海啸。\x0a\x0a1、CES变成AI展，机器人已“判若两人”\x0a\x0a今年CES只有一个主题：AI。整个展会火爆到难以想象。机器人、自动驾驶展位，挤得人山人海。\x0a\x0a机器人的进步太快了。看到它们轻松地翻跟斗、打拳击、端盘子，还能...

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tsunami","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLI":0.6,"TSLQ":0.6,"CRSH":0.6,"TSLG":0.6,"TSLT":0.6,"TSLY":0.6,"TSLS":0.6,"TSLW":0.6,"07766":0.6,"TSLP":0.6,"TESL":0.6,"TSLR":0.6,"TSDD":0.6,"TSLA":1.95,"TSII":0.6,"DXYZ":0.81,"TSLO":0.6,"TSL":0.6,"TSLL":0.6,"TSLZ":0.6,"UFO":0.6,"TSYY":0.6},"content_text":"刚从美国回来，我才明白马斯克说的“超音速海啸”是什么意思。亲历CES和硅谷后，我只有一个感觉：震撼！一个新时代真的来了。\\x0a\\x0aAI不是风口，是海啸。\\x0a\\x0a1、CES变成AI展，机器人已“判若两人”\\x0a\\x0a今年CES只有一个主题：AI。整个展会火爆到难以想象。机器人、自动驾驶展位，挤得人山人海。\\x0a\\x0a机器人的进步太快了。看到它们轻松地翻跟斗、打拳击、端盘子，还能安静地折纸。去年还有人嘲笑机器人笨拙，今年所有人都开始担心自己会不会被替代。马斯克放出豪言，3年内Optimus机器人手术水平将超越全球顶尖医生。\\x0a\\x0a在旧金山街头到处都是Waymo的无人驾驶出租车，行驶流畅。AI是这个时代最大机会，可能远超三十年前的IT互联网。\\x0a\\x0a2、亲驾FSD后背心发凉，马斯克没吹牛\\x0a\\x0a我试驾了特斯拉最新FSD。一个词，丝滑。全程无需接管，红绿灯、调头、进出主路，系统处理的比老司机还稳。马斯克坚持纯视觉，靠的是海量数据和强大算力。\\x0a\\x0a我把体验分享给国内的企业家。余承东认为，国内路况更复杂，加上激光雷达方案会更安全。\\x0a\\x0a但一个共识是无人驾驶的大规模落地，比我们想象中快得多。马斯克、余承东、何小鹏都认为可以直接跳到L4/L5级别。段永平甚至说开特斯拉回家睡着了两次。\\x0a\\x0a2026年，或许就是那个转折点。届时汽车行业将彻底洗牌。\\x0a\\x0a3、算力的背后是能源，中美竞赛的真正“命门”\\x0a\\x0a英伟达的黄仁勋说，未来全球AI算力需求将增长一百倍。这意味着对GPU、电力、能源的需求是天文数字。AI竞赛背后其实是能源战争。\\x0a\\x0a马斯克直言缺芯片是去年的事，明年危机是电力。中国能源基建不可思议，正在把我们甩得连尾灯都看不见。\\x0a\\x0a算力下半场，电就是货币。\\x0a\\x0a这次在美国，拉斯维加斯到处都是TCL、联想等中国企业的广告。作为中国人确实感到骄傲。AI革命将拉大国与国之间的差距，而主角，毫无疑问是中美。\\x0a\\x0a马斯克预测，廉价劳动力优势将归零，机器人和AI带来物资极大丰富。未来学校将退化为社交场所，鸡娃无意义，做题家没有未来。\\x0a\\x0a背后是一个更深层次的问题。当年制造了核弹的奥本海默反思是否释放了魔鬼。\\x0a\\x0a如今，AI在几乎所有领域都开始超越人类。我在回国的飞机上陷入沉思，我们是否释放了无法控制的魔鬼，还是创造了我们无法控制的神？\\x0a\\x0a这究竟是人类文明的进步，还是终结？\\x0a\\x0a\\x0a2月9日（周一）晚上七点，我将和大家聊聊市场新趋势。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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