计算机行业周观察：AI军备竞赛持续升级关注高壁垒软件及云服务

招商证券股份有...02-08

海外互联网大厂发布季报，资本开支持续超预期。过去一周，微软、META、亚马逊、谷歌等海外科技大厂先后发布季度财报，四家公司明确表示将持续扩大AI 领域的相关投资。SaaS 商业模式遭受质疑，关注高壁垒软件及云服务。微软26 财年营收、利润与每股收益均实现增长，Azure 收入增速下滑。微软FY26Q2 营收813 亿美元，同比增长17%；剔除OpenAI 76 亿美元投资收益后净利润是309 ...

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software and cloud services","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"META":1.91,"MSFT":1.96,"MSFO":0.6,"MSFU":0.6,"MSFL":0.6,"MSFD":0.6,"MSFY":0.6,"MSFW":0.6,"GOOGL":1.92,"AMZN":1.89,"MSFX":0.6},"content_text":"海外互联网大厂发布季报，资本开支持续超预期。过去一周，微软、META、亚马逊、谷歌等海外科技大厂先后发布季度财报，四家公司明确表示将持续扩大AI 领域的相关投资。SaaS 商业模式遭受质疑，关注高壁垒软件及云服务。微软26 财年营收、利润与每股收益均实现增长，Azure 收入增速下滑。微软FY26Q2 营收813 亿美元，同比增长17%；剔除OpenAI 76 亿美元投资收益后净利润是309 亿美元，同比增长23%，高于市场一致预期的291 亿美元。第二财季公司资本支出达到375 亿美元，同比增长66%。OpenAI 和Anthropic大单带动本季度商业RPO 6250 亿美元，同比增长110%，环比增长2330 亿美元，其中45%来自OpenAI，除OpenAI 以外客户的RPO 同比增长28%，主要由Anthropic 带动。展望第三季度，公司预计营收806.5 亿至817.5 亿美元，同比增长15%-17%，其中，预计Azure 同比增长37%-38%；公司预计FY26Q3 capex 环比下滑，过去4 个季度公司capex 合计1180 亿美元。自微软发布财报至今，公司股价下跌16.71%，我们认为投资者主要担忧两个方向：1）Azure 收入增速下滑。公司capex 增长快于预期，而Azure 增长稍慢于预期，投资者开始质疑微软对算力投资的ROI；2）订单的可持续性。约45%的剩余履约义务仅由OpenAI 一家公司贡献，凸显出公司对OpenAI 的高度依赖，在当前ChatGPT 与Gemini 的竞争格局下，增加了不确定性。强劲的广告业务推动META 25 财年第四财季业绩超预期。Meta FY25Q4 营收598.93 亿美元,同比增长24%，净利润227.68 亿美元，同比增长9%；公司25 年12 月平均日活跃用户达35.8 亿，同比增长7%；广告展示量增长18%，广告单价上涨6%；四季度营收超预期主要受益于广告业务的强劲表现，公司在AI 方面的投入正在提升广告投放的精准度和效果。四季度公司资本支出221.4 亿美元，全年为722.2 亿美元，Meta 预计2026 年全年资本支出将在1150-1350 亿美元，高于分析师平均预期1106 亿美元。META CEO 扎克伯格表示，2025 年公司重建了AI 项目的基础，2026 年公司将陆续推出新的模型和产品。谷歌Q4 营收再创新高，云收入猛增48%。Alphabet 25 财年第四财季营收同比增长18%至1138 亿美元，继三季度首次营收破千亿后再创单季历史新高，较分析师预期的1114 亿美元高逾2%；每股收益（EPS）为2.82 美元，保持30%以上的同比增速，较分析师预期的2.65 美元高逾6%。谷歌云业务成为Alphabet 四季度业绩最大的亮点，当季业务收入同比增长48%至177 亿美元，较分析师预期的162 亿美元高逾9%，这一增长主要由企业AI 基础设施、企业AI 解决方案以及核心谷歌云平台产品需求激增驱动，四季度，Gemini 应用App 的月度活跃用户已超过7.5 亿，高于三季度的6.5 亿。四季度谷歌资本支出约为279 亿美元，较去年同期143 亿美元接近翻倍，Alphabet 宣布，2026年资本支出预计在1750 亿至1850 亿美元之间，比市场预期的1195 亿美元高出600 亿美元，激进的资本开支指引体现了谷歌在AI 军备竞赛中all in 的决心。亚马逊AWS 超预期大增，资本开支持续扩大影响自由现金流。亚马逊25 财年第四财季净销售额增长14%至2134 亿美元，较分析师预期的2115 亿美元高将近9%；四季度AWS 净销售同比增长24%至355.8 亿美元，较分析师预期的348.8 亿美元高约2%，AWS 销售的同比增速较三季度的20%更快，刷新三季度所创的2022 年底以来该业务最高增速。截至25 年四季度末，过去12 个月，亚马逊经营现金流1395 亿美元，同比增长20%，同期自由现金流仅112 亿美元，较上年同期的382 亿美元大幅缩水70.7%。自由现金流走弱的直接原因是资本开支猛增，过去12 个月，亚马逊扣除处置和激励后用于物业和设备的支出达到1283 亿美元，同比增加65%。亚马逊管理层在财报公告中表示，鉴于公司现有产品需求强劲，以及人工智能、芯片、机器人和低地球轨道卫星等领域蕴藏着巨大的发展机遇，预计亚马逊将在2026 年投入约2000 亿美元的资本支出。Anthropic 为Claude Cowork 植入插件功能，SaaS 商业模式遭受质疑。新的AI Agent 商业模式正在吞噬SaaS 模式，Cowork 的11 款插件直接统领了财务、销售、法律等相关行业业务，且不需要嵌套在传统软件中运行。自相关功能发布以来，海外软件板块遭遇大幅回调，1 月29 日至今，iShares 标普北美科技软件ETF 下跌15.04%。我们认为智能化是以数字化为基础，Agent的核心能力在于意图理解和任务规划，以交互为主/界面设计为护城河的软件、功能单一的工具/流程类软件有被大模型生态应用取代的风险，而拥有/触达私域数据、复杂计算引擎、物理世界连接、提供情绪价值的软件则具备较高的壁垒。建议关注工业软件、重型企业管理软件、基础软件、深度垂类软件等方向，关注同花顺、中控技术、索辰科技、中望软件、用友网络、金蝶国际、达梦数据。此外，企业的IT 开支正逐步提升，大厂的capex 依然高景气，建议关注云服务，关注阿里巴巴、深信服、协创数据、网宿科技、宏景科技、金山云。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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计算机行业周观察：AI军备竞赛持续升级 关注高壁垒软件及云服务

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计算机行业周观察：AI军备竞赛持续升级关注高壁垒软件及云服务