马斯克又“造梦” 没人会记得特斯拉曾造过车

IT时报02-06

特斯拉“汽车人”变身“机器人”| 图源：豆包AI作者／ IT时报林斐编辑／王昕孙妍2026年1月，特斯拉在第四季度财报电话会议上宣布重要战略调整：首席执行官埃隆·马斯克表示，公司将停止生产Model S和Model X两款旗舰车型，并将加州弗里蒙特工厂改造为Optimus类人机器人生产线。这一决策标志着特斯拉正式启动从“汽车制造商”向“人工智能+机器人”多元科技企业的转型。马斯克曾表示，机器人...

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X两款旗舰车型，并将加州弗里蒙特工厂改造为Optimus类人机器人生产线。这一决策标志着特斯拉正式启动从“汽车制造商”向“人工智能+机器人”多元科技企业的转型。马斯克曾表示，机器人的未来市场价值有望超过汽车业务，预计到2050年相关市场估值将达25万亿美元，占特斯拉未来整体价值的80%。按照公开规划，特斯拉将于2026年第一季度发布第三代Optimus机器人，该版本为首款面向量产的设计，计划2027年向公众发售，其定位为可完成工厂作业、家庭服务等多种基础任务的双足智能机器人。弗里蒙特工厂的Optimus机器人生产线设计年产能达100万台，同时该工厂预计将扩大员工规模。另据马斯克透露，Optimus机器人与特斯拉电动汽车将共享核心AI技术及传感器，改造弗里蒙特工厂可充分利用特斯拉现有制造能力与供应链管理经验，降低机器人量产的技术与成本门槛。目前，同为马斯克旗下的xAI公司Grok聊天机器人已应用于特斯拉车队，未来有望进一步赋能Optimus机器人，提升其自主学习与任务执行能力。当马斯克又开始“造梦”，电动汽车领域的成功还能在机器人身上复制吗？首先，Optimus机器人面临技术与供应链的双重瓶颈，量产难度远超预期。Optimus机器人拥有全新的供应链体系，与特斯拉现有汽车供应链几乎无重叠，这意味着特斯拉需要重新搭建机器人核心供应链，而核心零部件的产能与可靠性成为关键制约因素。Optimus机器人集成的14个直线关节，其核心部件“行星滚柱丝杠”精度要求极高，误差需控制在±6微米以内，目前全球可稳定量产该部件的供应商数量有限，且该关节使用寿命仅约1年，远未达到工业应用所需的5年以上标准。同时，Optimus机器人灵巧手的研发也面临困境，早期采用的全腱绳驱动方案暴露出握力不足、材料易损耗等问题，后续转向“肌腱+连杆”混合驱动方案后，又出现结构复杂、制造成本攀升的新问题，当前试产期单台成本高达4万～5万美元，远超2万美元以下的量产成本目标。从此前的量产实践来看，2025年特斯拉计划量产5000台Optimus机器人，实际产出仅数百台，完成率仅10%，年产100万台的目标仍存在很大不确定性。其次，Optimus机器人的技术可行性遭到业界专家质疑，麻省理工机器人学家罗德尼·布鲁克斯就警告，人形机器人要实现“与人类协同作业、胜任多种复杂任务”的目标，短期内难以做到，当前技术水平尚无法支撑相关设想，且Optimus机器人触觉传感器分辨率仅为行业顶级仿生手的1/10，细腻操作能力不足，特斯拉在该领域的巨额研发投入存在难以转化为实际成果的风险。最后，从市场需求方面看，人形机器人亦存在较大不确定性。目前，人形机器人的应用场景主要集中在工业制造领域，消费级市场需求尚未被有效激发，Optimus机器人的定价、性能能否契合市场实际需求，仍有待验证。更为关键的是，特斯拉核心汽车业务面临的困境，为其机器人转型增添了额外压力，也使得机器人业务的研发资金存在不确定性。值得关注的是，2025年，特斯拉自成立以来首次年度销量下滑，全年收入下降3%，且已失去全球最大电动汽车销售商地位，被比亚迪超越。若核心车型销量持续下滑，特斯拉将面临现金流紧张的压力，进而影响Optimus机器人研发与量产的资金投入。马斯克曾说过，“最终没人会记得特斯拉曾经造过车”，这一表述既体现了其对机器人业务的长远预期，也彰显了特斯拉打造“以人工智能为核心的科技企业”的雄心。但无论战略愿景如何，特斯拉都必须直面现实挑战：如何平衡核心汽车业务与机器人业务的资金投入，如何突破Optimus机器人的技术与量产瓶颈，如何为机器人业务找到清晰的商业化路径，这些问题将直接决定其转型成败。从全球产业格局来看，特斯拉的此次战略转型不仅关乎自身发展前景，也将对全球电动汽车产业与人形机器人产业产生一定影响。对于电动汽车产业而言，特斯拉停产高端旗舰车型，意味着其将进一步聚焦中端市场，与比亚迪等中国电动汽车品牌的竞争将更加激烈，也为其他高端电动汽车品牌腾出市场空间。对于人形机器人产业而言，特斯拉的入局有望加速行业技术迭代与产业化进程，吸引更多企业与资本投入，推动人形机器人从实验室走向实际应用，但如果特斯拉的机器人布局未能达到预期，也可能间接影响市场对人形机器人产业的信心。排版／ 傅正卿图片／ 豆包AI来源／《IT时报》公众号vittimesEND","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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