苹果三星官宣上车：AI眼镜进入爆发倒计时

中关村在线02-06

最近这半年，AI眼镜赛道是越来越热闹了。从去年下半年开始，国内外大厂亚马逊、谷歌，国内的海信、小米，阿里、百度、理想都先后下场试水。进入到2026年，两位消费电子领域的专业选手，三星和苹果终于也敲定了产品的时间，都表示要在2026年加速AI眼镜的发展进程。说起来，AI眼镜的兴起其实也有两三年的时间了，创业公司虽然早就杀得天昏地暗，但在这之前，巨头们其实一直是不动如山的状态，也就是这半年突然开始下...

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explosion","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"688007":1.92,"AAPD":0.6,"AAPY":0.6,"AAPX":0.6,"AAPW":0.6,"AAPL":1.9,"AAPB":0.6,"APLY":0.6,"AAPU":0.6,"MACW.SI":0.6},"content_text":"最近这半年，AI眼镜赛道是越来越热闹了。从去年下半年开始，国内外大厂亚马逊、谷歌，国内的海信、小米，阿里、百度、理想都先后下场试水。进入到2026年，两位消费电子领域的专业选手，三星和苹果终于也敲定了产品的时间，都表示要在2026年加速AI眼镜的发展进程。说起来，AI眼镜的兴起其实也有两三年的时间了，创业公司虽然早就杀得天昏地暗，但在这之前，巨头们其实一直是不动如山的状态，也就是这半年突然开始下饺子式的跟进。外行看热闹，内行看门道，大厂集中在半年内先后入局，对整个产业的发展来说，机会在哪里？又走到了哪个阶段呢？通过对过往消费电子产业发展过程的拆解，或许会得到答案。//专业选手进场：AI眼镜进入成熟期消费电子产业的成长，基本上都在复制“萌芽阶段-草莽阶段-成熟阶段-爆发阶段”的经典路线。现在的智能手机产业，新能源汽车产业，都是沿着这条路径走到了现在：萌芽阶段：旧有的产业讲不出新的故事了，于是在利润边际的驱使下，人们发现了一个的新技术/新需求。比如当年的苹果、安卓之于诺基亚，就是新技术对旧的革新；新能源汽车也是一样，电网的技术到这了，又有像比亚迪这样的车企一直在耕耘，产业转向看似巧合，实则是必然的。草莽阶段：一个新的领域，可能只有个大概的雏形，但是市场是肉眼可见的有潜力，于是大量的创业公司涌入，因为数量够多，大概率会活下来一两个。比如现在的小米，就是当年留下的创业公司。成熟阶段：有创业公司趟路之后，技术开始趋近成熟，大厂随之进入，凭借规模、资金、人才的优势，以及供应链的支持，迅速抹平和创业公司之间的差距，开始扫荡模式。这个阶段的市场会被巨头带动，盘子会越来越大。同时，马太效应也会越来越强，小公司的生存空间不断的被巨头挤压，直到失去生命力。爆发阶段：经过市场对产品的反馈，以及大厂更专业，更快速的迭代，产品开始变的稳定，需求开始爆发式的增长。鉴往知来，回到AI眼镜这个行业上面，大厂的加入，意味着整个行业现在就处于从草莽阶段向成熟的阶段的转换中。大厂的加入，特别是三星和苹果的加入，可能代表着他们看到了这个赛道确定性的机会，行业的成熟度也确实到了能够让整个市场规模迅速上一个台阶的时候。说白了，AI眼镜的未来更具有确定性了。（图注：三星AI眼镜）除了历史因素，其实站在当下，也能看到，原本的手机业务虽然能产生足够的现金流，但是在业绩增长上面，手机整个行业的增速都在变慢，哪怕是苹果也不能幸免。所以，巨头在利润和技术的双重驱动下，对整个AI眼镜行业会进行推动，那也许行业的爆发就在未来这两三年的时间。至于接下来的这一年，行业则很可能进入一个互相竞争挤压的阶段。说起来，现阶段AI大模型和AI眼镜的步调其实相对同步，也是独角兽烧了几年投资人的钱，一直没有结果，整个行业还没有找到相对稳定盈利的模式。但同时，技术的进步已经让巨头们看到了新的可能，于是大厂开始绞尽脑汁的抢用户。临近春节，大厂之间的大模型之战也正式开打，现在砸10个亿，30个亿发红包、发优惠券，为的只是让你打开他的大模型。同理，以主机厂为主导的AI眼镜的下半场，短期内很可能还是个资本“毁灭”的阶段。对投资者来说，每个阶段其实都有机会，那这个阶段的机会在哪呢？//AI眼镜的下半场：供应链的躺赢局押注大厂，毫无疑问是个稳妥的选择。比如现在你看大模型的这场仗，最后的结果大概率在腾讯的元宝，阿里的千问，字节的豆包之间产生，他们都有不错的企业文化，相当稳健的商业基本盘，以及充足的现金流。所以，押注商业模式更好，现金流更充沛的大厂，长期来看，必然是会有收获的。但是大厂的问题在于，体量实在是太大了，大模型即使跑通了，能带来多少增量是个问题，估值很难定价。另外，一个商业模式或者新的产品，想要让消费者彻底接受，然后还要完成盈利，周期会相对来说会比较长。相比之下，赛道中最确定的机会，其实藏在供应链里。拿AI产业来说，现在的英伟达、台积电、寒武纪、海光信息等芯片制造企业，都是近几年受益于AI产业爆发的企业，无论终端赚钱与否，芯片就是AI里面的“水电煤”，是基础设施，谁都绕不开。回到AI眼镜赛道，当下确实十分火热，但是终端什么时候能够结束竞争，什么时候能稳定盈利，都很难预测。而且客观来讲，至少未来三到五年不容易，毕竟手机功能太多了，也承载了我们太多生活中的细节。所以，现在离主机厂能够在AI眼镜赛道上稳定的赚钱，也就是爆发阶段，其实还很远。最稳的，还是上游的供应链。AI眼镜不大，重的也就70克，所以他的供应链，其实很短，可选项不多。那在有限的选项里面，AI眼镜自己的“水电煤”是谁呢？光机应该榜上有名，不仅BOM成本占比大（30%左右），对整个眼镜的重量，使用体验都有决定性的影响。而且，显示功能确实是AI眼镜不可或缺的模块。今年1月份，国内的科技企业光峰科技，就发布了行业内的王炸产品“蜻蜓C1”，目前是市面上唯一支持“一拖二”架构的全彩AR光机，单目体积仅仅只有0.42cc。蜻蜓C1直接攻克了带显示功能AI眼镜的三大核心痛点：成本高、重量大以及续航短的问题。蜻蜓C1的“一拖二”架构因为减少了一枚光机，能显著降低设备整机成本，同时还能让整机重量降低20%，续航也能大幅提升。这意味着，未来搭载蜻蜓C1的AI眼镜，既能做到更轻便、更耐用，价格也能更亲民。当然，再稳定的技术也需要验证，从已经发售的产品来看，采用光峰科技“一拖二”方案的闪极loomos S1几乎就是现在市面上最轻的AI眼镜了，根据预定的单量推测，光峰科技的产能也能保证供应。未来，主机厂进入，肯定也绕不开这项技术，因为创业公司都在用，想要匹配对方的产品强度，不可能从头开始。比如人家都用的清晰度在线的全彩光机，你非要用单色的光机，哪怕你牌子够硬，也不一定能打过对方。所以，通过整合最优秀的供应链技术，配上自己对整机的调教，才是正确的方向。总的来看，光机这个模块，在未来行业进入爆发阶段，肯定是刚需，而主机厂因为后发的问题，技术上大概率是没有供应链的储备厚实。换句话说，即使是大厂有计划像比亚迪那样全部自产，在中短期内，光峰科技这种在技术上有先发优势的企业，一定会有一段很长的蜜月期。而且，选择自研的毕竟还是少数，至少国内的主机厂因为不用考虑地缘因素，会优先选择采购国产供应链的产品。最后，从行业发展规律来看，每一次消费电子产业的迭代升级，都离不开核心供应链的技术支撑。而这一次，国内的供应链比以往任何时候都更加成熟，不管是政策还是技术，都断档领先全世界的水准。希望像光峰科技这样的企业，能够在这一轮的变化当中把握机会，强势崛起。免责声明：本文基于公司法定披露内容和已公开的资料信息，展开评论，但作者不保证该信息资料的完整性、及时性。另：股市有风险，入市需谨慎。文章不构成投资建议，投资与否须自行甄别。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"productRelease","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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