2026开年车市：补贴“断奶”首月，市场正在重新站位

上海汽车报天天看02-07

记者｜刘宗岳不知不觉中，2026年1月已经过去，各大车企纷纷交出了开年以来的首张答卷。整体来看，1月份汽车市场波动较大，虽然大多数品牌销量同比取得正增长，但环比数据普遍下滑，反映出真实的市场压力。这种压力，在很大程度上源于政策环境的切换。2026年1月，新能源汽车购置税由“全免”转变为“减半征收”，各地补贴政策短暂进入“空窗期”，购车成本的变化与补贴的不确定性，使得消费者观望情绪升温，市场短期波动...

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position","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"81810":0.6,"600104":1.91,"MIUmain":0.6,"02238":0.9,"HXXD.SI":0.6,"01211":1.88,"09868":0.9,"01810":0.9,"02015":0.9,"09866":0.9,"002594":1.88,"BYDDY":1.88,"09927":0.9},"content_text":"记者｜刘宗岳不知不觉中，2026年1月已经过去，各大车企纷纷交出了开年以来的首张答卷。整体来看，1月份汽车市场波动较大，虽然大多数品牌销量同比取得正增长，但环比数据普遍下滑，反映出真实的市场压力。这种压力，在很大程度上源于政策环境的切换。2026年1月，新能源汽车购置税由“全免”转变为“减半征收”，各地补贴政策短暂进入“空窗期”，购车成本的变化与补贴的不确定性，使得消费者观望情绪升温，市场短期波动在所难免。自主挑大梁，出海辟新路在开年整体承压的背景下，大型汽车集团内部的增长结构正在加速重构。一个清晰的趋势是，在传统车企内部，自主品牌与新能源汽车业务，已经成为对冲周期波动的核心力量。其中，最瞩目的莫过于上汽集团，1月份逆势上扬，实现整车批售32.7万辆、终端零售36.3万辆，自主品牌、新能源汽车及海外市场“三驾马车”分别同比增长39.6%、39.7%和51.7%，整体表现领跑行业。广汽集团亦印证了这一趋势，1月份自主品牌销量同比大增87.58%，成为内部最强增长动能。吉利汽车则在新能源转型方面表现亮眼，1月整体销量达27.02万辆，新能源汽车销量占比达到46%，并且总量一举超越比亚迪，改写了市场排位。伴随着国内市场进入存量竞争阶段，出海成为中国车企全新的增长引擎，几大汽车集团1月销量表现的一大共性是海外出口均取得大幅增长。比亚迪1月销量达21.01万辆，虽在国内承压，但海外销量突破10万辆，占据了近“半壁江山”，成为抵御国内市场波动的重要支点。奇瑞集团1月销量达20.03万辆，在出口领域，依然保持连续9个月突破10万辆月销量的稳定表现。上汽集团同样在海外市场保持高增长态势，1月海外销量同比增长超过50%，为集团整体韧性提供了重要支撑。而在备受关注的新势力赛道上，梯队洗牌已成既定事实。1月份，市场形成了以问界、小米、零跑为代表的新“第一梯队”，交付规模迈入3万—4万辆区间；曾经的头部力量，如理想、蔚来、小鹏则回落至2万—3万辆区间。排名变化的背后，是车企通过品牌势能与新车型的攻势，对终端市场影响力的重新分配。政策切换期，谁更抗压？1月市场格局出现明显波动，核心原因是新能源汽车购置税及补贴政策的集中切换。自2026年1月起，新能源汽车正式告别了持续十余年的购置税免征时代，购车成本直接抬升；与此同时，地方置换补贴政策到1月下旬才陆续宣布，短期内出现了补贴“真空期”。两者叠加，对终端消费决策产生了影响。但在同样的政策环境中，不同车企的承压能力并不一致，那些能够逆势突围的车企，无一不是抓住了产品创新与技术引领的红利。以上汽集团为例，1月份能够夺魁并非偶然，全新MG4、智己LS6以及火热交付中的LS9等车型，凭借代际领先的产品、技术实力及较高市场热度，有效对冲了政策调整带来的负面影响。无独有偶，吉利也通过精准对标比亚迪，充分发挥后发优势，实现了对主流市场的抢占，并辅以极氪9X等高端增量车型，形成了坚实的增长护城河。抗压能力的差异，本质上源于本轮政策调整具有“偏向性”。对于那些产品结构以低价为主、产品周期处在末端、迭代动作相对较慢的车企来说，政策的变化构成了更为直接的挑战。今年受补贴政策影响最直接的，是以刚需用户为主的低价位车型。以售价10万元的新能源汽车为例，购置税政策调整后，消费者需要额外承担5000元左右的成本。这足以影响购车决策。比亚迪受此影响最为直观，其主力产品集中在10万元价格带。同时，部分车型已进入产品周期后段，政策与周期的双重压力，导致其1月份国内市场销量出现明显缩水。产品周期的迭代节奏也决定了企业的“防御力”。理想汽车的阶段性“失速”印证了这一逻辑。自2022年L系列发布以来，其增程技术路径虽然曾引领风潮，但随着竞争对手迅速跟进，先发优势已逐渐被抚平。在纯电车型由于产能问题尚未形成有效接力的空窗期，主力车型的老化，使其在市场压力面前明显承压。结语总体来看，1月份车市的变化，更多是政策切换带来的阶段性波动。新能源汽车购置税政策的调整，是行业走向成熟、回归理性的必经之路，并不会改变产业长期向上的基本趋势。随着各地购车补贴细则陆续出台，以及车企对新政策环境的适应，2月以后的车市将更具有观察价值。可以预见的是，2026年的车市依然处在洗牌阶段，唯有在产品周期和技术创新上始终保持领先的车企，才能抵抗外部变化，维持稳定增长。编辑：黄予希","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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