“软件股末日”论调席卷华尔街之际 “AI重塑软件盈利”的增长叙事悄然扩散

智通财经02-05

有关全球股票市场的“软件股末日”(Software-mageddon)这一悲观叙事论调，正在滚雪球般发酵。如今，包括华尔街大型机构投资者们在内的全球投资者正在激烈争论是否到了该对这些近期遭重创的软件类股票重新发起看涨呼吁的时候。从近日全球大型软件股资金流走势来看，一部分机构类资金开始入场抄底式“逢低布局”这些近期经历暴跌甚至股价几乎腰斩的软件股，并且他们赞同黄仁勋对于软件股的积极看法——即市场错杀...

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Street","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"ORCX":0.6,"NOW":1.92,"INTU":1.91,"MSFT":1.95,"ORCS":0.6,"ORCU":0.6,"SAP":1.88},"content_text":"有关全球股票市场的“软件股末日”(Software-mageddon)这一悲观叙事论调，正在滚雪球般发酵。如今，包括华尔街大型机构投资者们在内的全球投资者正在激烈争论是否到了该对这些近期遭重创的软件类股票重新发起看涨呼吁的时候。从近日全球大型软件股资金流走势来看，一部分机构类资金开始入场抄底式“逢低布局”这些近期经历暴跌甚至股价几乎腰斩的软件股，并且他们赞同黄仁勋对于软件股的积极看法——即市场错杀了那些聚焦“AI+核心操作流程”且基本面强劲的软件巨头，但是仍有一些投资者保持谨慎立场。与此同时，这也显示出以AI赋能盈利的新叙事正在悄然扩散，部分投资者已开始将未来增长预期纳入对软件股的评估。AI代理工具引爆担忧情绪此前在今年1月有着“OpenAI劲敌”称号的Anthropic推出颇具工程协作革新意义的代理式AI编程工具——Claude Cowork工具，并且这款工具甚至旨在将AI代理的功能从编程终端扩展至文件管理、软件交互等广泛意义上的通用办公场景，当时就已经大幅加剧了市场对AI智能体彻底颠覆SaaS软件行业的恐惧情绪。而自本周二起全球软件股集体崩盘的元凶——即Anthropic推出的新AI工具，一款能够执行多项文书工作，包括追踪合规事项和审阅法律文档的高效率代理式AI智能体，要知道，审阅法律文档、金融分析能力以及独家的数据服务技术乃多数SaaS软件公司的长期最强劲护城河。对基于Anthropic这款AI工具所带来影响的担忧情绪，引发了最新一轮波动，而这轮波动又被包括全球最大规模软件巨头微软(MSFT.US)在内的公司的令人失望的业绩指引以及更大规模AI基础设施支出预期所叠加放大。智通财经APP曾报道，美国软件板块周三遭遇2022年以来最严重的抛售，但往常在科技股暴跌时迅速入场的“逢低抄底资金”却并未全面融入经历持续暴跌的软件板块。标普500软件与服务指数周二暴跌近4%后，周三再度下挫1%，连续六个交易日下跌。标普500软件与服务指数自10月底的近期高点以来已下跌约25%——同期标普500整体几乎没有变化。一部分交易员甚至对“逢低买入式抄底”这些受重创的软件股兴趣不大，一些期权交易员也选择观望。B Riley Wealth首席市场策略师Art Hogan表示：“这就是‘软件末日’(Software-mageddon)。”周四，这款AI工具对于全球软件股的杀伤力仍在一定程度上打压全球软件股，集中体现在周四亚洲软件股以及广义上的科技股持续暴跌，有着亚洲科技股风向标称号的韩国股市周四暴跌，周四外国投资者净卖出价值4.99万亿韩元(34亿美元)的韩国Kospi指数成分股，创下历史纪录，大型机构投资者们也净卖出高达2.07万亿韩元的Kospi指数成分股。标普500软件与服务指数在过去一周大幅暴跌13%，期间市值蒸发超过8000亿美元，推动因素包括Intuit(INTU.US)、ServiceNow(NOW.US)和甲骨文(ORCL.US)等长期以来的软件领域“大牛股”股价大幅下跌。Evercore ISI的股票策略师们表示，相对于整体标普500指数，截至周二，美股软件板块录得自2002年5月以来最差的三个月表现——而当时正值互联网泡沫破裂后的余波。上图为软件股自10月底以来相对美股大盘基准——标普500指数的表现，可谓创纪录式地跑输标普500指数。投资机构反应与分歧面对暴跌，机构投资者分歧明显，一部分小幅抄底，一部分仍谨慎观望。陡峭跌幅触发了某些技术面信号，可能表明该板块至少出现了暂时性的底部，一些投资组合经理已开始小幅买入这些被恐慌情绪所统计的软件类型股票。不过，投资者们仍犹豫是否要宣布“警报正式解除”。Allspring Global Investments驻明尼阿波利斯的投资组合经理Jake Seltz表示：“这些名字里确实存在一些长期价值，它们正走到一个让我觉得更具吸引力的逢低买入价位。”他近几个月一直在“边际上”增持部分软件股持仓，包括ServiceNow和Monday.com。Seltz强调，他在等待能促使更加激进的逢低买入的催化剂，例如一些具有重大市场影响力的大型软件公司报告强劲的AI相关产品真实营收数据，或更多企业客户宣布正在部署这些公司所推出的基于AI工具或者代理式AI智能体的更新迭代后“AI+SaaS软件系列产品”。Greenwood Capital首席投资官Walter Todd表示，他领导的这家投资公司近日已小幅逢低买入ServiceNow和微软的股票。他指出，在不打算“押上全部身家”押注软件股反弹的同时，“我确实认为它开始呈现出买入价值”。“我不认为在这些情况下，用AI解决方案对现有软件类基础设施进行全面替换是彻底现实的。”Hirtle, Callaghan & Co.首席投资官Brad Conger表示，他已开始权衡潜在的逢低买入，其中包括软件巨头SAP(SAP.US)、Adobe(ADBE.US)以及在软件股抛售中受重创的Intuit。“你可以认为它们该反弹了。”但他补充表示，在当前价位他还没准备好成为最终买方，因为他并不“确信它们已经到达一个最坏威胁被充分计价的价位水平”。来自国际资管巨头景顺(Invesco)的主题与特色产品策略主管Rene Reyna表示：“我们开始更清楚地理解AI的能力，市场正在重新定价，反映出对AI驱动当前世界未来软件销售额增长的信心下降。”但是他补充表示：“是否被过度抛售?我们现在还无法判断。有可能迎来反弹，但卖出也有可能引发更多卖出。”AI重塑价值链与未来观察从软件工程现实与SaaS产业结构看，“AI替代整个企业软件栈”是一个容易被市场线性外推的叙事。企业级软件的“价值密度”不只在界面和功能，而在专有数据、权限/审计链、合规与责任边界、系统集成、SLA与可用性、变更管理与组织流程；这些决定了：LLM再强，也往往需要高质量专有语料+结构化知识库+可控工具调用+可追溯输出才能在生产环境跑起来。汤森路透Breakingviews一篇研究举例称，市场对RELX/ Reuters等数据型公司下跌的定价可能过头：其分析提到RELX有大部分营收预期面临较低LLM替代风险、真正“可能受冲击”的业务占比有限；同时这些公司也在推出基于自有数据库训练/增强的AI工具。 同样，汤森路透Breakingviews引述的观点也强调“把一个AI插件等同于替代全部关键企业软件层”是跳跃式的不合逻辑推断。从AI工具以及SaaS软件领域的底层技术逻辑看，恐慌抛售软件股并不等同于“软件不需要了”，而是价值链被AI重分配：更强的通用大模型与代理式AI工作流(Agentic workflows)让大量“点状功能型SaaS”面临被模型层/平台层功能内生化(feature absorption)、或被“对话式入口+自动化执行”绕开UI与席位的风险，进而冲击传统基于席位(seat-based)定价与续费逻辑；市场因此更急于把软件股切成“AI赢家/AI输家”。但反过来，企业级SaaS软件领军者们的“系统记录层”(ERP/CRM/ITSM/数据库/安全/合规)往往有数据主权、治理、权限、审计与迁移成本壁垒，现实更可能是AI把这些长期以来的软件巨头变成交付AI能力的分发渠道，而不是一夜替换整个既有软件基础设施。在摩根士丹利策略团队看来，短期层面，软件板块暴跌确实触发了“技术面接近阶段性底部”的讨论，也出现了部分资金小幅加仓；但更多资金仍在等“能把AI应用叙事讲成实际创收曲线”的硬催化逻辑——例如软件公司披露AI相关产品营收/渗透率、企业客户明确宣布规模化部署、或续费指标(净留存、扩张率)在引入AI大模型或者代理式AI智能体后大幅走强；若缺少这些证据，反弹更像“超跌修复”，而不是新一轮趋势。这次软件股大抛售浪潮，更像是市场在用极端方式回答一个新问题：SaaS软件厂商们的利润池会被“模型厂+agent”重新分配到什么程度？短期内，答案只能通过两个“硬指标”来校验：(1) 企业端真实部署与付费扩散速度；(2) SaaS厂商AI相关产品收入与续费/净留存的弹性——也正如汤森路透Breakingviews研究报告中的部分买方代表所描述的那样，他们在等“AI相关产品的实际营收增长数据”或更多企业部署公告作为加仓催化。在此之前，关于软件股的波动大概率会延续：一方面技术面可能出现“超卖反弹”，另一方面资金会持续做结构性切换——更偏好与AI训练/推理体系密切相关联的数据与工作流粘性强的垂直软件/数据资产型软件公司，以及能把AI落到“可控、可审计、可集成”的平台；而对护城河更弱、同质化更强、估值更贵的应用层名字，会继续要求更高的风险补偿。因此微软、MongoDB、Snowflake、Palantir以及SAP等这类聚集数据资产且基本面优质的软件巨头可能更加容易在恐慌后走出强劲超跌反弹。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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