光连接行业炸场！谷歌3000万只1.6T订单+OCS需求爆发，产业链最新动向全梳理

调研纪要杂货铺02-05

AI算力爆发带动光连接行业进入“超级周期”！谷歌、微软、Meta等巨头密集加码，1.6T光模块、OCS交换机、DCI网络成为投资核心。光模块头部企业锁定关键物料，二线厂商加速扩产，CPO/NPO技术持续迭代，整个产业链正迎来前所未有的发展机遇。一、核心需求：巨头狂砸订单，1.6T/OCS成主战场1. 1.6T光模块：谷歌引领，需求三年翻三倍•谷歌需求激进：2026年预计采购1000万只1.6T光...

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Google's 30 million 1.6 T orders + OCS demand explodes, and the latest trends in the industry chain are fully sorted out","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"GOOG":0.9,"GOOGL":1.97,"GOOY":0.6,"GOU":0.6,"GOOW":0.6,"GOOX":0.6,"GGLS":0.6,"USJW.SI":0.6,"GOOP":0.6,"GGLL":0.6},"content_text":"AI算力爆发带动光连接行业进入“超级周期”！谷歌、微软、Meta等巨头密集加码，1.6T光模块、OCS交换机、DCI网络成为投资核心。光模块头部企业锁定关键物料，二线厂商加速扩产，CPO/NPO技术持续迭代，整个产业链正迎来前所未有的发展机遇。一、核心需求：巨头狂砸订单，1.6T/OCS成主战场1. 1.6T光模块：谷歌引领，需求三年翻三倍•谷歌需求激进：2026年预计采购1000万只1.6T光模块，2027年需求直接飙升至3000万只，成为行业最大增量来源；•价格坚挺：当前1.6T光模块直供客户价格达1000美元，后续或进一步涨价；而800G光模块因供应商增加，价格回落至350-400美元；•配套需求：AMD计划2026年下半年推出Helix机架系统，将配套800G/1.6T光模块，光彩芯辰已确定为其供货。2. OCS交换机：谷歌带头采购，技术路线向硅光波导演进•采购规模惊人：谷歌2026年向Lumentum订购4000台，意向扩容至8000-10000台；向Coherent订购1500台，意向扩容至4000台，自身自研方案逐步缩减；•技术路线：当前以MEMS方案为主，但存在速度慢、价格高的问题，终极看好硅光波导方案（切换时延＜1毫秒），德科立32/64端口硅光波导OCS已向谷歌送样；•其他巨头跟进：Oracle、Meta、微软均明确将部署OCS，行业需求全面爆发；•产能与价格：德科立32端口OCS接近量产，64端口目标今年量产，价格从早期5万美元降至未来3-4万美元；英唐智控一季度将发布128/256端口MEMS方案OCS。3. DCI网络：巨头砸130亿美元，建设周期2-3年•投资规模：谷歌60亿美元、微软50亿美元、Meta 20-30亿美元，订单已基本敲定康宁、Lumentum；•建设逻辑：数据中心数量增多需互联，且单数据中心算力过大导致电力紧张，需分散部署，DCI作为“数据中心桥梁”需求爆发；•相干光模块占比：若含基建，相干光模块采购占比15%；若仅设备采购，占比达25%，高端产品由Ciena、诺基亚自研，德科立承接低速率代工。二、产业链动向：头部锁定物料，二线加速扩产1.光模块企业：头部稳占高端，二线抢滩中低端•头部企业（旭创、新易盛）：提前锁定关键物料，手握大量不可撤销长周期订单（NCNR），已启动2027年物料锁定计划，主力聚焦1.6T高端产品；•二线企业：￮武汉钧恒：800G年产能超300万只（400G/800G各半），2026年计划扩产1.6T，为Coherent供货800G预计150万只；￮联特科技：按500万只产能扩产（原300万只），布局800G/1.6T，主要客户为谷歌，有望承接头部800G订单缺口；￮恩达通：年化产能目标2026年底达200万只，以800G为主，客户为甲骨文，拓展AWS、Meta；￮环旭电子：越南扩产+收购四川光模块公司，目标年底100万只产能，对接英伟达NPO，暂无终端客户。2.关键物料：法拉第旋片短期短缺，国内扩产补缺口•供应紧张：日本厂商因稀土短缺，月产能降至3万片（年产1.5亿颗），扩产计划受阻；•国内突围：飞锐特扩产60条产线，年产出1.2亿颗；森一量子扩产年产出1亿颗，合计超2亿颗，预计仅短缺一个季度；•价格上涨：海外产品从5元涨至7元，国内产品从4元涨至6元。三、技术迭代：CPO/NPO持续推进，替代效应有限1.英伟达CPO：新款SN6810获认可，备货1.6万台•产品改进：SN6810价格降至7万美元，引入可插拔光引擎（MPC），维护性提升，客户接受度显著提高；•备货规模：2026年计划备货1.2万台SN6810，叠加其他型号CPO交换机，总量或达1.6万台，市场乐观预期2万台；•替代影响：单台SN6810对应128个800G光模块，1.5万台可替代200万只，占整体800G市场比例小，影响有限；•配套需求：1.5万台需200万个300毫瓦CW光源，总价值约6000万美元。2. NPO进展：环旭电子已对接英伟达，未来有望出货环旭电子通过日月光资源对接英伟达NPO业务，内部已开发800G/1.6T产品，当前暂无客户，后续或实现突破。四、其他关键信息•内存池化：谷歌、微软在推进，依赖高带宽网络，可节省HBM成本，但传输距离要求高、成本昂贵；•XAI供应链：间接采购光模块（通过英伟达、思科交换机），直采Credo大量铜缆；•DCI互联距离：理想80公里，实际30-100公里，80公里为常见跨城距离。互动时间谷歌3000万只1.6T订单能否引爆行业？硅光波导OCS能否快速替代MEMS方案？在光连接赛道，你更看好头部企业的技术壁垒，还是二线厂商的扩产红利？欢迎在评论区留言分享你的观点～ 觉得内容有价值的话，别忘了转发给身边关注AI硬件和光通信赛道的朋友！","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"2","news_tag":"corporation","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2609376554","isCrawlerRequest":true}