华尔街大多头漫谈黄金“黑天鹅”风险：马斯克实现太空采金，化身全球央行行长

环球市场播报02-06

在一场探讨传统金融与未来科技相互碰撞的对话中，华尔街顶级策略师汤姆·李（Tom Lee）描绘了一个疯狂的“黑天鹅”场景，在这个场景中，全球金融体系的颠覆者不是美联储，而是埃隆·马斯克。　　这位前摩根大通首席股票策略师、现任Fundstrat联合创始人兼研究主管在最近的一次播客访谈中发表了一番关于黄金的看法，引得现场观众阵阵惊叹，也让同台嘉宾——《大空头》作者迈克尔·刘易斯和播客主持人、SoFi...

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Lee）描绘了一个疯狂的“黑天鹅”场景，在这个场景中，全球金融体系的颠覆者不是美联储，而是埃隆·马斯克。\n　　这位前摩根大通首席股票策略师、现任Fundstrat联合创始人兼研究主管在最近的一次播客访谈中发表了一番关于黄金的看法，引得现场观众阵阵惊叹，也让同台嘉宾——《大空头》作者迈克尔·刘易斯和播客主持人、SoFi...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2026-02-06/doc-inhkvren1510980.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU2462157665.USD","symbol_name":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"A\" (USD) 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\"AM2\" (HKD) INC","LU0823411888.USD":"法巴消费创新基金 Cap","IE00BK4W5L77.USD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (USD) ACC","BK4574":"无人驾驶"},"translate_title":"Wall Street bulls talk about gold's \"black swan\" risk: Musk realizes space gold mining and becomes a global central bank governor","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"159934":0.6,"518880":0.6,"TSDD":0.6,"CRSH":0.6,"TSLI":0.6,"TSLL":0.6,"SGCmain":0.6,"TSLS":0.6,"07766":0.6,"TSLQ":0.6,"TSLR":0.6,"TESL":0.6,"TSLP":0.6,"UFO":0.6,"TSLZ":0.6,"DUST":0.6,"TSYY":0.6,"TSLT":0.6,"TSII":0.6,"TSLG":0.6,"TSLO":0.6,"TSLY":0.6,"SGUmain":0.6,"TSLW":0.6,"TSL":0.6},"content_text":"在一场探讨传统金融与未来科技相互碰撞的对话中，华尔街顶级策略师汤姆·李（Tom Lee）描绘了一个疯狂的“黑天鹅”场景，在这个场景中，全球金融体系的颠覆者不是美联储，而是埃隆·马斯克。\n　　这位前摩根大通首席股票策略师、现任Fundstrat联合创始人兼研究主管在最近的一次播客访谈中发表了一番关于黄金的看法，引得现场观众阵阵惊叹，也让同台嘉宾——《大空头》作者迈克尔·刘易斯和播客主持人、SoFi投资策略主管莉兹·托马斯开怀大笑。李表示，黄金不仅是一种“林迪效应”资产，而且在他看来，它还是一则“人口统计学”故事，与怀旧情绪有关。除此之外，他还看到了一种“黑天鹅”式的尾部风险，即全球首富马斯克发现一颗新的小行星，并成为全球的中央银行家。\n　　在李看来，黄金“很可能是一个与人口结构有关的故事”。他指出，Fundstrat 进行了大量的人口结构研究，并发现“人们的偏好会隔一代发生变化”。例如，每隔 50 年就会出现一次房车（RV）销售的高峰。谈到疫情期间房车销售的高峰，他说道，上一次销售如此强劲的情况是在 20 世纪 50 年代《我爱露西》的鼎盛时期。\n　　他说：“孩子们不会买他们父母喜欢的东西，而是会买他们祖父母喜欢的东西。”最后他得出结论：黄金对于婴儿潮一代来说“确实是一项重大投资”，而 X 世代则青睐对冲基金和另类投资产品。\n　　李表示，黄金的规模与股市相当，且有数据支持这一观点。据他所说，全球“地面上的”黄金总估值约为 29 万亿美元至 34 万亿美元，而“美股七巨头”的总市值约为 21 万亿美元。\n　　“顺便说一句，”他接着说道，“所有的黄金都能装进一个游泳池里，全世界所有的黄金。”\n　　李继续说道：“黄金是一种‘林迪效应’资产：由于多年来一直被人们视为一种价值储存手段，所以它仍能以这种形式被接受。那么，什么能打破这种局面呢？这就涉及到马斯克了。”\n　　黄金的“黑天鹅”情景\n　　黄金面临的一个关键风险在于其地上储量\n　　李估计道：“如今地下蕴藏的黄金数量是地面上的数百万倍。”他同时指出，据多数研究显示，地球上的大部分黄金都无法开采。如果黄金价格过高，他则认为这会引发反常的激励机制，“比如说，‘七巨头’公司肯定会涉足黄金开采，对吧？因为挖金子比什么都值钱，何乐而不为呢？”\n　　他补充说，另一个关键风险是黄金“全部来自外太空”，暗示黄金起源于陨石撞击地球。他表示，这意味着太空公司可能会在太空中发现更多黄金。“SpaceX可能会执行火星任务，然后撞上一颗富含黄金的小行星，”李对听众说。“如果埃隆·马斯克……拥有所有黄金，他就会成为新的中央银行。”\n　　当被问及人造黄金时，李同意这是第三个风险：炼金术。\n　　无论如何，李补充说，根据Fundstrat的研究，黄金价格可能已经“见顶”。Fundstrat研究了过去100年黄金与股票市值的关系，发现两者通常会在回落前达到150%的涨幅。Fundstrat注意到1月30日金价下跌了9%，回顾历史发现，黄金单日跌幅超过9%的情况仅出现过三次，而且这三次都标志着金价的峰值。\n　　“所以我也不确定，但如果历史可以借鉴，那么金价可能已经见顶了。”他说。\n\n新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障\n\n\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑：于健 SF069","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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