“AI抢饭碗”冲击美股，纳指“跌跌不休”｜美股一线

21世纪经济报道02-05

南方财经 21世纪经济报道记者吴斌报道在美股财报季关键时刻，科技股承受的压力尤为显著。截至美国东部时间2月4日收盘，标普500指数收跌0.51%，报6882.72点；纳斯达克综合指数跌1.51%，报22904.58点，连续两日下跌后，纳指跌破100日均线；道琼斯工业平均指数涨0.53%，报49501.3点。对于这一轮科技股抛售，软件板块的暴跌尤为显眼，英伟达公司首席执行官黄仁勋批驳称，软件产品是...

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Snider统计发现，在已发布2026年每股盈利预测的标普500指数成分股公司中，超过半数公司给出的预测都高于分析师预期。这一比例也超过了历史平均水平40%。展望后市，高盛策略师对美股给出了积极的展望：虽然美股今年可能不会重现2025年的超大涨幅，但在坚实的基本面和持续增长的经济的推动下，美股仍有很大的上涨空间。但需要警惕的是，美国经济已经出现放缓迹象，如果后续超预期恶化，可能会冲击美股。2月4日，美国自动数据处理公司（ADP）发布的数据显示，1月私营部门仅增加2.2万个就业岗位，低于市场先前预期的4.8万个，去年12月时增加了3.7万个。ADP报告特别提到，制造业自2024年3月以来每月都有工作岗位流失。ADP首席经济学家Nela Richardson表示，过去两年就业市场的低增长一直让他保持警惕，而招聘路径如此狭窄也令人担忧。从格林斯潘、伯南克、耶伦到鲍威尔，美联储货币政策几乎一脉相承。与过往美联储主席交接时往往呈现“萧规曹随”不同的是，这一次，被特朗普选中的沃什身上有对美联储“大改革、大换血”的标签。沃什支持缩表的立场依然是市场人士的一大隐忧点。多年来，沃什多次公开抨击美联储官员放任央行资产膨胀，市场担忧一旦他上台可能迅速采取缩表行动。加拿大帝国商业银行资本市场股票与投资组合策略主管Christopher Harvey指出，如果美联储着手缩减资产负债表规模，此举将抽离金融体系流动性，恐对风险资产造成负面冲击。巴克莱银行全球股票战术策略主管Alexander 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