硬盘不再看周期，AI 正在重写 HDD 产业规则

半导体链脉02-05

点击蓝字关注我们最近硬盘产业传出一个信号：高容量加上长期合约，已经改变了硬盘厂的获利模式，而且这种变化比很多人想的还要明显。西部数据（Western Digital）财务长Kris Sennesael直接点破一个关键：超大规模云端服务商（hyperscalers）对储存需求的能见度非常高，这让西部数据在规划产能时，比过去稳定太多。西部数据财务长Kris Sennesael在财报会上表示，过去大家...

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hyperscalers提供超大容量硬盘。这些客户用得越多、产生的数据就越多，形成典型的“飞轮效应”，采购行为不再随季节或景气波动，而是持续、长期存在。在策略上，西部数据追求的也不是单纯“多卖几颗”，而是引导客户转向容量更大、毛利率更高的产品。Sennesael直言，西部数据有能力持续推出更高容量的硬盘，而成果也直接反映在获利上。上季毛利率已从一年前的38.4%拉升到46.1%，本季还有机会再往47～48%走。至于为什么HDD仍然不可或缺？Sennesael也讲得很现实。闪存确实能加快AI处理器之间的数据传输，但如果用每TB成本来看，闪存仍比硬盘贵10～15倍，从经济角度来说，全面用闪存对客户并不划算，这也是硬盘需求能持续扩大的关键。随着客户集中度提高，西部数据的商业模式也同步调整，更强调协作与长期采购协议。目前2026年的产能已经被客户订满，其中有合约延续到2027年，甚至2028年。西部数据也持续与客户沟通，是否有机会把合约拉长到2029年，甚至2030年，而客户最在意的，就是未来几年“供应不能断”。值得注意的是，刚分拆出来的SanDisk表现同样亮眼。SanDisk公布财报显示，2026会计年度第二季（10～12月）经调整后的Non-GAAP毛利率，已从去年同期的32.5%大幅拉升到51.1%，下一季更预估上看65～67%。目前西部数据仍持有约750万股SanDisk股票，公司也已说明，将在近期逐步变现，用于偿还债务、扩大库藏股计划，并提高股利发放。同时，在AI服务器存储需求快速成长的带动下，董事会也已批准新增40亿美元的股票回购额度。整体来看，在AI数据量持续爆发的推动下，硬盘产业已经从过去的周期型生意，转变为高度可预期、以长期需求为核心的结构性成长产业。对厂商来说，关键不在于卖多少，而是谁能掌握高容量、高毛利，以及长期供货的主导权。推荐阅读8寸晶圆突然“翻身”！5%-20%涨价潮全面引爆全球手机的新战役来了小摩最新预判：NAND周期更长更稳，eSSD成AI时代新主角存储器“打满产能”，PCB供应链迎来黄金期NAND闪存，等来了久违的“春天”！半导体衬底材料涨疯了，基板厂却苦不堪言1","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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