全文|谷歌Q4业绩会实录：Gemini增长强劲暂未发现分流

新浪科技02-05

专题：聚焦美股2025年第四季度财报　　Alphabet发布截至2025年12月31日的第四季度及全年财务业绩。财报显示，公司全年营收首次突破4000亿美元，Q4营收同比增长18%，AI技术驱动核心业务全面增长，谷歌云业务延续高增速，整体盈利能力稳步提升，各项关键指标均呈现积极态势。　　详见：谷歌2025年营收破4000亿美元，云业务成核心增长引擎　　财报发布后，谷歌CEO桑达尔·皮查伊（...

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yet","themeId":"ff2cb10f76e37d0eb4e914ee7f4efe56","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"USJW.SI":0.6,"GOOG":1.94,"GOU":0.6,"GOOY":0.6,"GOOX":0.6,"GGLS":0.6,"GOOP":0.6,"GGLL":0.6,"GOOGL":1.97,"GOOW":0.6},"content_text":"专题：聚焦美股2025年第四季度财报\n　　Alphabet发布截至2025年12月31日的第四季度及全年财务业绩。财报显示，公司全年营收首次突破4000亿美元，Q4营收同比增长18%，AI技术驱动核心业务全面增长，谷歌云业务延续高增速，整体盈利能力稳步提升，各项关键指标均呈现积极态势。\n　　详见：谷歌2025年营收破4000亿美元，云业务成核心增长引擎\n　　财报发布后，谷歌CEO桑达尔·皮查伊（Sundar Pichai）、首席商务官菲利普·辛德勒（Philipp Schindler）以及CFO阿纳特·阿什肯纳齐（Anat Ashkenazi）召开了分析师电话会议，解读财报要点，并回答分析师提问。\n　　以下为电话会议实录：\n　　摩根士丹利分析师Brian Nowak：我有两个问题，一个关于代理式商务（Agentic Commerce），一个关于YouTube。第一个问题：回顾2025年，您认为在新型代理式商务产品方面，Alphabet取得的最大进展是什么？展望2026年，在哪些领域最有信心取得更大进展，为用户和广告主带来更多价值？第二个问题关于YouTube：我们看到Genie等新型内容创作模型不断涌现，能否介绍一下Alphabet的长期愿景，如何将Genie及部分内容创作工具整合到YouTube中？\n　　桑达尔·皮查伊：感谢你的提问。首先回答代理式商务相关问题。我认为，2025年主要是奠定基础的一年：我们让模型在代理式应用场景中更稳健，编码领域的进展尤为显著。在商务领域，我们全年与生态系统合作，开发代理式商务世界所需的底层协议。今年1月，我们在全美零售联合会（NRF）展会上与多家创始合作伙伴共同推出了通用商务协议，反响极佳。如今，我们已搭建好代理式商务所需的互操作性基础。今年，消费者将能实际使用这些功能，我对未来机遇充满期待。\n　　再谈谈YouTube相关问题：我对Genie非常期待，也为团队打造的精彩虚拟世界感到震撼。Genie的应用场景广泛，我们在多模态和真实世界呈现方面的优势将进一步凸显，而Genie正是构建世界模型的重要一步。无论是Lyria（音乐模型）还是Genie，我们所有创新都会融入产品并提供给云客户，YouTube自然也会成为创作者使用这些工具的重要平台。目前，创作者已开始积极采用这些工具，而我们始终将创作者置于体验核心。确保YouTube成为创作者表达的平台，是我们推进所有工作的基础。\n　　高盛分析师埃里克・谢尔曼（Eric Sheridan）：在过去几次财报电话会议中，我们多次讨论人工智能领域（内部和外部）的需求与产能失衡问题。鉴于您预计2026年资本支出将大幅增加，能否谈谈解决内部和外部计算需求缺口的路径？以及如何在业务中持续提升运营效率，为这些增长性投资提供资金支持？\n　　桑达尔·皮查伊：你说得对，尽管我们一直在扩大产能，但目前仍面临供应短缺问题。显然，今年的资本支出是着眼于未来的投资，同时需考虑供应链的时间周期延长等因素，因此我们始终在进行长期规划。2026年的资本支出规模，是基于前几年的工作成果，这其中存在时间滞后效应，需要注意。目前，我们各业务板块（包括服务业务、谷歌DeepMind未来项目以及云业务）的需求都异常强劲，因此预计2026年全年仍将处于供应受限状态。\n　　阿纳特·阿什肯纳齐：谢谢埃里克的提问。正如我在之前财报电话会议中提到的，我们看待效率和生产力的方式是：这并非一次性项目，而是我们日常运营业务的核心逻辑，我们始终在寻找提升全业务效率的机会。无论是外部客户需求还是内部组织需求，释放的资金越多，我们就能越好地推动“投资-增长”的飞轮效应。\n　　具体而言，我们采取了多方面措施：首先，确保每一笔投入技术基础设施的资金都能实现最高效率，这一过程涉及科学创新和技术创新。如前所述，我们主要自主建设数据中心，偶尔与外部合作，确保数据中心建设效率最高且符合我们的工作负载需求；其次，我们借助人工智能提升内部运营效率，例如，我们的代码部分由编码智能体编写，再由工程师审核，这能帮助工程师提升效率、加快进度；此外，我们还在全组织范围内优化运营，从工程团队到后台小团队，甚至我的财务团队。我们在财务部门部署了智能体处理财务工作，在支付流程中也引入了智能体，通过这些方式释放更多产能，为未来投资提供支持。\n　　摩根大通分析师道格·安缪斯（Doug Anmuth）：我有两个问题：过去几年，大型语言模型（LLM）领域的竞争日益激烈，预计这种趋势将持续。谷歌在数据分布和产品整合方面，有哪些策略来巩固Gemini的领先地位？此外，如何看待TPU走出谷歌云、进入外部数据中心并成为新增收入来源的可能性？\n　　桑达尔·皮查伊：谢谢道格。首先，大型语言模型前沿领域的发展势头令人振奋，预计2026年这一领域将继续取得进展。我们正从多个维度优化模型，包括预训练、微调、实时计算等；同时，我们将多模态模型、代理式功能融入其中，编码领域也取得了显著进展。我们正将所有这些元素整合，通过产品和API为客户提供卓越体验。该领域仍有巨大发展空间，从过去两年的进展来看，我们的创新节奏非常快，有信心在2026年保持这一势头。\n　　关于TPU：需从谷歌云整体优势的角度看待这一问题。谷歌云的一大吸引力在于我们提供丰富的加速器选择，能满足客户在计算方面的多样化需求，再加上我们在数据中心的互联效率等优势，共同推动了谷歌云的强劲增长。考虑到我们的整体投资规模，预计将继续保持这一增长势头，这就是我对TPU相关问题的看法。\n　　Evercore分析师马克·马哈尼（Mark Mahaney）：我有两个问题：第一，YouTube广告营收同比增长9%，您提到直接响应型广告表现良好，零售业也相对强劲，但YouTube广告营收增速未完全体现这些积极因素，能否解释一下原因？第二，桑达尔，目前市场存在一种争议：有人认为当前可能处于类似“深海时刻”（deep sea moment）的阶段。您之前提到Gemini是全球最成功软件企业（SaaS公司）的人工智能引擎，但市场普遍认为软件公司正失去定价权，且客户基础可能恶化。我难以相信这种情况会发生，但作为人工智能领域的前沿企业，您如何看待人工智能对软件公司的影响？为何它不会（或为何会）损害大型软件/SaaS公司客户群体的经济效益？\n　　菲利普·辛德勒：首先回答YouTube相关问题：2025年全年，YouTube广告与订阅业务总营收突破600亿美元。第四季度YouTube广告营收增长，确实得益于直接响应型广告的强劲表现；但在品牌广告方面，同比增速受去年美国大选期间高额广告支出的基数效应影响，同时部分其他品牌相关垂直领域也存在小幅负面影响。\n　　不过，需从整体视角看待YouTube的广告与订阅业务：当用户从广告支持模式转向YouTube Music和Premium订阅模式时，会对YouTube广告营收产生轻微负面影响，但对公司整体业务而言是积极的。本季度，YouTube订阅业务（尤其是YouTube Music和Premium）营收增长强劲。\n　　更值得关注的是我们在品牌广告领域的未来规划：联网电视（Connected TV）的增长机遇、创新广告形式（如我之前提到的“可购物巨幅广告”——在“网购星期一”促销期间试点的形式）、助力品牌与创作者达成赞助合作、帮助广告主在高关注度焦点时刻推广服务等。此外，我们正扩展创作者合作中心的功能，让品牌更容易找到创作者并开展广告活动；同时，我们在品牌合作和效果衡量方面投入大量资源，后续将有更多精彩举措。\n　　除品牌广告外，效果广告也有增长机遇：中小企业广告主对需求开发广告（Demand Gen）的采用率持续提升，Shorts（短视频服务）等领域的广告创新也值得期待。总体而言，我们对YouTube业务前景充满信心。\n　　桑达尔·皮查伊：关于Gemini的应用以及当前阶段对SaaS行业的意义，从我的角度来看：我们的SaaS客户均是各自领域的领军企业，这些成功企业正将Gemini深度整合到关键业务流程中，无论是优化产品体验、推动增长，还是提升内部运营效率。\n　　人工智能就像我们在搜索、YouTube等产品和服务中使用的工具一样，是一种赋能工具。我认为，那些抓住当前机遇的企业，未来也将获得同样的增长机会。从客户的令牌使用量等数据来看，第四季度增长非常强劲，我们对这些合作伙伴关系及业务势头充满信心。\n　　伯恩斯坦研究所分析师马克·施穆莱克（Mark Shmulik）：我有两个问题：第一个问题留给阿纳特，能否详细说明投资规模与核心业绩趋势之间的关系？Alphabet是否有营业利润或自由现金流目标作为决策依据？在批准资源和项目时，主要考虑哪些因素？第二个问题：一年前，我们或许能猜到这个问题的答案，但鉴于当前形势，对各位而言，在思考谷歌未来发展时，最担忧的问题是什么？\n　　阿纳特·阿什肯纳齐：谢谢马克。首先回答投资框架相关问题，这对我们而言确实是一个重要问题。我们内部采用高度严谨的框架评估所有投资需求（无论是内部组织需求还是外部客户需求），并估算这些投资可能产生的收益（不仅包括短期收益，也包括长期收益）。基于这一评估，我们做出两类决策：\n　　第一，确定公司整体投资规模。例如，2025年我们的资本支出逾900亿美元，2026年资本支出估算也是基于这一逻辑，我们希望通过投资确保公司短期和长期增长。\n　　第二，确定资金在各组织间的分配。全年过程中，我们会持续关注内外部动态（如我之前提到的外部供应链压力），确保投资决策的合理性。\n　　令人振奋的是，我们在人工智能领域的投资已开始产生回报。从本季度财报数据可见，人工智能推动云业务、搜索业务等多个板块取得成功，同时前沿模型开发也为公司发展奠定了坚实基础。此外，我们还会考虑现金流生成能力、财务健康状况和资产负债表情况，确保投资既符合财务审慎原则，又能维持公司健康的财务状况。\n　　桑达尔·皮查伊：我来回答“最担忧的问题”。总体而言，我们推行“人工智能优先”战略已逾十年，一直在系统性地推进相关工作。例如，我们研发TPU已超十年，就是这一战略的体现。当前阶段，我最关注的无疑是计算能力供应问题：包括各种限制（带宽、电力、土地、供应链等），以及如何在满足激增需求的同时，确保效率并达到世界级水平。目前，我们正积极应对这一挑战，在这一领域投入了大量时间和资源。\n　　MoffettNathanson分析师迈克尔·内桑森（Michael Nathanson）：我想向桑达尔（或其他发言人）提问：您多次提到通用商务（Universal Commerce）领域，能否谈谈开发该领域的初衷、在Salesforce等平台上看到的机遇，以及它对消费者产品发现路径的意义？另外，阿纳特能否说说资本支出中长周期资产（如建筑和基础设施）与短周期资产（如技术设备）的比例，这将非常有帮助。\n　　桑达尔·皮查伊：谢谢迈克尔。显然，用户会通过我们的多个平台（搜索、YouTube、Gemini等）完成商业旅程，同时我们也通过云业务和广告业务为零售合作伙伴提供支持。因此，优化这些商业体验有望带来巨大的基础性提升。但关键在于，推进这一领域工作时，需同时考虑用户和商家的需求，明确价值定位。\n　　通用商务协议的设计亮点在于：它既能为用户简化购物流程（例如，用户在不同平台购物时无需重复输入支付信息），又能让商家灵活展示产品（如推出促销活动等），这些功能都已融入协议设计中。我认为，只有让生态系统各方都获得价值，才能真正改善体验。目前，我们正推进协议落地，Gemini模型的代理功能也在不断优化。未来，当用户进行产品发现和搜索时，整个商业旅程将更加顺畅，这将为业务带来扩张机遇。\n　　阿纳特·阿什肯纳齐：关于资本支出构成问题：2025年，我们约60%的资本支出用于设备（如服务器），40%用于您提到的长周期资产（数据中心和网络设备），2026年这一比例将基本保持不变。您可能还关注两类资产的折旧差异：长周期资产的折旧年限通常较长（例如建筑折旧年限可能为15-20年），而服务器等短周期资产的折旧年限较短（可能不到5年）。\n　　另一个重要方面是资本支出的分配：正如我们之前提到的，2026年，我们的机器学习（ML）计算资源中，超一半将分配给云业务。谢谢。\n　　巴克莱分析师罗斯·桑德勒（Ross Sandler）：我想问关于Gemini应用的问题：其月活跃用户（MAU）达7.5亿，第四季度新增1亿用户。能否从整体上谈谈Gemini原生应用的用户使用情况和留存率？用7.5亿月活用户衡量公司相对于ChatGPT等竞品的进展是否合适？是否还有其他未纳入这一统计的用户群体值得我们关注？\n　　桑达尔·皮查伊：谢谢罗斯。第四季度，Gemini应用的增长势头确实非常强劲。不仅月活跃用户数量增长，用户在应用上的互动强度也显著提升。无论是活跃使用率、使用强度、留存率，还是在iOS、网页、Android等多平台及全球各地区的表现，所有指标都非常出色。产品体验的优化、Gemini模型的持续改进，共同推动了这一强劲势头，且目前增长仍在持续，我们对此感到兴奋，并将继续加大投资。\n　　此外，还需关注搜索业务中人工智能模式（AI Mode）的原生体验。该领域同样取得了强劲增长，Gemini 3融入人工智能模式后，对业务增长起到了积极推动作用。未来，我们将持续优化这些体验，期待更多机遇。\n　　富国银行分析师肯·戈拉尔斯基（Ken Gawrelski）：非常感谢。我有两个关于搜索业务的问题：第一，能否介绍一下您如何评估用户会话时长的延长？目前，用户价值越来越多地来自平台内结果，而非外部链接跳转和引流。在这种情况下，公司如何提升营收机遇以匹配用户价值？高级订阅服务是否会在这一过程中发挥更大作用？第二，该问题与此相关：在与苹果（如Siri）等合作伙伴的合作中，如何通过合理的合作模式确保双方成功？以往的合作可能涉及收入分成，但如今人工智能搜索和Gemini在这些平台上创造的价值，可能与传统“搜索营收”关联度较低，能否谈谈如何与合作伙伴实现价值对齐？\n　　菲利普·辛德勒：首先，需要说明的是，搜索业务的加速增长并非由单一因素驱动，而是多个业务板块协同发力、共同增长的结果。从垂直领域来看，零售业、金融业、医疗健康领域是搜索营收的主要贡献者，且几乎所有主要垂直领域在第四季度都实现了增速提升。\n　　具体到您的问题：持续创新是我们的核心战略，对用户体验和广告主体验的优化，是推动业绩增长的关键。我们通过多方面举措实现增长：提升整体查询量（包括重要的商业查询量）；优化搜索广告，借助Gemini改善查询匹配度和广告素材制作；深化对用户意图的理解，从而能够在以往难以变现的长周期、复杂查询中投放广告。例如，AI Max已被数十万广告主使用，持续解锁数十亿新的查询变现机会；在广告素材方面，我们借助Gemini通过文本定制、AI Max、P Max（效果最大化广告）等工具生成数百万广告素材。目前，这些举措的效果都非常好。\n　　美银美林分析师贾斯汀·波斯特（Justin Post）：我想跟进两个关于Gemini应用的问题：首先，随着用户更多使用Gemini应用，是否观察到搜索业务被分流的迹象？其次，Gemini应用的变现进展如何？随着代理式广告等新形式的推出，未来几年这一业务能否为公司增长带来增量贡献？\n　　桑达尔·皮查伊：目前来看，我们为用户提供了多样化选择。用户既使用搜索，也使用Gemini应用，这种多元化选择实际上推动了业务进入扩张期。总体而言，它扩大了用户通过谷歌进行查询的类型范围，目前尚未发现业务分流的迹象。菲利普补充回答变现相关问题。\n　　菲利普·辛德勒：关于变现，正如我们之前讨论代理式商务时提到的，我们始终将创造卓越用户体验放在首位。目前，我们已在人工智能概览功能和人工智能模式的早期实验中融入变现元素（如直接优惠功能），未来还将推出更多计划。就Gemini应用本身而言，目前我们重点关注免费套餐和订阅服务，且订阅业务增长势头良好。广告一直是我们实现产品规模化（触达数十亿用户）的重要方式，若能合理运用，广告可在恰当的时机为用户提供有价值的商业信息。未来如有具体计划，我们将及时分享，但目前我们不会急于推进变现。（完）\n \n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑：刘明亮","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"dataReport","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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全文|谷歌Q4业绩会实录：Gemini增长强劲 暂未发现分流

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全文|谷歌Q4业绩会实录：Gemini增长强劲暂未发现分流