中信证券：腾讯控股游戏业务保持强劲动能

中信证券02-05

中信证券财富管理与中信里昂研究观点一致。根据中信里昂研究在2026年2月3日发布的题为《Games keepstrong momentum》的报告，腾讯预计将继续交出稳健业绩，2025年第四季度总收入和调整后Ebit同比大幅增长。分析指出，网络游戏有望带来积极惊喜并实现同比增长，得益于常青游戏的稳健表现以及新爆款游戏《三角洲行动》的推动。尽管宏观环境疲弱，广告业务预计仍将同比增长，主要受广告...

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CHINA OPPORTUNITY (USD) \"PM\" INC","LU0345776255.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF ASIAN EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1960683339.HKD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV ALL CHINA \"P\" (HKD) ACC","LU0203347892.USD":"SCHRODER ISF QEP GLOBAL ACTIVE VALLUE \"A\" (USD)  INC AV","LU0516423174.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA FOCUS EQUITIES \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU0269904917.USD":"SCHRODER ISF GLOBAL EMERGING MARKET OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B29SXG58.USD":"FSSA CHINA FOCUS \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU0878005551.USD":"UBS (LUX) KEY SELEC ASIA ALLOCATION OPPORTUNITY (USD) \"P\" (USD) ACC"},"translate_title":"CITIC Securities: Tencent Holdings' game business maintains strong momentum","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"80700":0.9,"00700":1.95,"HTCD.SI":0.6,"TCHmain":0.6,"TCEHY":1.95},"content_text":"中信证券财富管理与中信里昂研究观点一致。根据中信里昂研究在2026年2月3日发布的题为《Games keepstrong momentum》的报告，腾讯预计将继续交出稳健业绩，2025年第四季度总收入和调整后Ebit同比大幅增长。分析指出，网络游戏有望带来积极惊喜并实现同比增长，得益于常青游戏的稳健表现以及新爆款游戏《三角洲行动》的推动。尽管宏观环境疲弱，广告业务预计仍将同比增长，主要受广告技术升级和交易增长的支撑。随着毛利率扩张，利润预计将继续快于收入增长。分析指出，腾讯在2026年有望维持双位数的游戏增长和广告增长，并被视为全球拥有最优人工智能应用计划的公司。网络游戏：强劲势头延续腾讯2025年四季度网络游戏收入预计将同比增长，其中国内/国际游戏收入均实现同比增长。国内游戏收入增长动力来自《王者荣耀》、《英雄联盟：激斗峡谷》、《金铲铲之战》和《穿越火线》等长青游戏的强劲表现，以及新爆款游戏《三角洲行动》(据Sensor Tower数据显示其流水贡献显著)。国际游戏收入受益于2024年递延收入强劲、《部落冲突：皇室战争》《卡通农场》等长青游戏稳健表现，以及《流放之路2》《三角洲行动》《沙丘：觉醒》等新作的贡献。三季度收入超预期主要归功于主机游戏《消逝的光芒：困兽》的销售，该影响属一次性且可能为2026年设定较高基数。广告业务：技术升级与交易增长双轮驱动分析预计2025年第四季度在线广告收入同比增长，得益于广告技术的进步、视频号流量和广告加载的增加，以及微信搜索、小程序和小店更强的贡献。2025年，微信小店在快速产品迭代和生态扩张推动下展现了运营势头，月活跃商户数和GMV均同比增长。企业服务：增长提速2025年四季度，腾讯金融科技及企业服务(FBS)收入可能同比增长，云业务和SaaS业务加速增长部分抵消了宏观疲软下支付业务增速放缓的影响。企业服务收入增速可能加快，得益于小店渗透率提升、SaaS货币化加强(如腾讯会议)以及GPU租赁收入增加。催化因素游戏版号审批常态化、海外游戏扩张、视频号及大语言模型(LLM)广告收入放量。投资风险新业务投资(包括在线金融、支付和云服务)带来的利润率压力可能影响业绩。其他风险包括：PC游戏行业结构性衰退；移动及PC游戏市场竞争加剧导致市场饱和；微信商业化仍处早期阶段存在不确定性；反垄断、数据安全、电商、游戏及内容等领域的现有及潜在监管可能挑战现有商业模式并导致财务损失。美国将腾讯列入涉嫌与“中国军工企业”合作的公司名单。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"dataReport","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2609307348","isCrawlerRequest":true}