AI应用产业链爆发逢新机遇

证券市场周刊市...02-05

文丨吴昊编辑丨张桔当前来自AI应用领域的催化很多，比如春节档的大模型发红包、Deep Seek计划春节发布下一代模型、Meta收购Manus等等。算力中心建设加速、大语言模型研发呈现白热化，有望推动AI应用产业链大爆发，AI应用从概念演示走向规模化变现，因此2026年也被称为AI应用商业元年。这并非空想。中商产业研究院发布报告显示，2021年至2024年中国AI应用市场规模年复合增长率为...

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RETURN ASIAN EQUITY \"AT4\" (HKD) ACC"},"translate_title":"The explosion of the AI application industry chain brings new opportunities","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"BABW":0.6,"BABO":0.6,"BABA":1.91,"BABX":0.6,"BBYY":0.6,"KBAB":0.6,"ALBmain":0.6,"09988":1.91},"content_text":"文丨吴昊编辑丨张桔当前来自AI应用领域的催化很多，比如春节档的大模型发红包、Deep Seek计划春节发布下一代模型、Meta收购Manus等等。算力中心建设加速、大语言模型研发呈现白热化，有望推动AI应用产业链大爆发，AI应用从概念演示走向规模化变现，因此2026年也被称为AI应用商业元年。这并非空想。中商产业研究院发布报告显示，2021年至2024年中国AI应用市场规模年复合增长率为31.35%，2026年市场规模预计将达到1148亿元。资本市场上，自2025年年底，AI应用板块爆发，Wind数据显示，AI应用指数涨幅达14.75%（Wind，时间区间：2025年12月15日—2026年1月26日），与商业航天板块共同成为跨年行情中最吸睛的行业。不过近期板块出现高位回调，主要是情绪回归理性与资金获利了结的双重因素影响。此前，多家连续上涨的上市公司公告提示风险，承认AI业务未形成收入或对业绩影响有限；AI应用板块降温，目前市场正在经历的“去伪存真”过程，或也预示了未来的结构性机会。AI应用迎来“奇点时刻”2026年马年春节成了AI巨头们的“抢滩登陆战”。腾讯、百度、字节、阿里全都下场，通过发红包、赞助晚会、推出节日新功能等方式，全力抢占市场和用户注意力。这波激烈的市场争夺，背后是技术的重磅升级。就在此前，国内AI领域的两大领先者相继亮出了“新武器”，DeepSeek发布了新一代的图像识别模型，用一种全新的方法“看懂”图片，在准确度和效率上有所突破。月之暗面则升级了其知名的Kimi助手。新版Kimi的核心进步有两点：一是能真正统一地理解和处理文字、图片、声音等多种信息；二是它能调动多个“AI小助手”协同工作，自主完成更复杂的链条任务，实用性大大增强。基于当前市场环境与产业演进逻辑，AI应用已经处于从“技术预期”向“商业落地”转型的“奇点时刻”，那么哪类应用场景最有潜力呢？我认为，AI应用场景筛选的核心逻辑其实很简单，它的爆发一定不是均匀分布在各个领域的，“有用”和“赚钱”是最基本的原则。在AI应用的众多赛道中，我最看好以下三个场景：一、AI辅助编程是现在落地最快的领域，为什么会是这个领域呢？这背后主要是因为程序员人力成本高，而写代码的逻辑又相对标准，这正好是AI擅长的。AI营销（GEO）领域也出现了新变化。传统的搜索引擎正在变成AI聊天框，这意味着旧的SEO玩法失效了，品牌需要学习新方法，让自己的内容被AI“看上”并推荐给用户。比如最近升级的千问APP，它接入了淘宝、支付宝等所有阿里系服务，用户不用自己东奔西跑找APP——用户只需告诉AI想要什么，它就能帮用户规划、比价、下单，一气呵成，这意味着流量和交易的核心入口正在被AI重塑。二、AI医疗是个特殊赛道，它有极高的行业壁垒，虽然推进不会那么快，但一旦做成，护城河极深，价值巨大。目前，AI在看医疗影像（比如CT片）上已经很成熟，准确率超过95%，能帮医生做初筛，大大提升效率。但我们最看好的，其实是AI在药物研发上的潜力。新药研发通常耗时十几年、花费数十亿美元，成功率却极低。AI有希望大幅缩短这一周期，提高成功率，这将是革命性的。它不仅仅是“辅助工具”，更是能带来“科学发现”的引擎。三、AI+短剧/内容生产。这个领域的关键词是“产能爆发”和“成本骤降”。AI能让内容生产的效率飙升，成本直线下降。2025年抖音上AI制作的“漫剧”播放量超过750亿次，证明了用户对AI生成的内容接受度非常高。看好“阿里链” 等待爆发机会在经历了算力基础设施高速发展期后，资本市场接下去的热点自然会转向怎么用这些算力来赚钱；这时候，大家自然会去找那些生态更成熟、赚钱模式更清晰的领域作为发力点。而阿里巴巴作为核心AI大厂，其阿里链上的相关企业自然也备受关注。近期，阿里巴巴正式发布其最新旗舰推理模型——千问Qwen3-Max-Thinking,标志着公司在AI应用领域迈出重要一步，随着阿里AI应用场景日益丰富，我也看好“阿里链”相关策略，由此也向读者科普一下究竟什么是“阿里链”。通俗来说，“阿里链”指的就是以阿里巴巴为核心的AI技术生态系统。核心资产就是阿里巴巴本身，它手握自研的AI芯片（平头哥），有强大的云计算平台（阿里云），还研发大模型（通义千问），自己家的AI业务（如阿里云AI）增长非常快。卫星资产就是围绕阿里的各类公司，比如为阿里云供应服务器的厂商，利用阿里的大模型和云服务，开发具体应用或做营销变现的公司等。而之所以在当前时点选择关注“阿里链”，是基于产业周期拐点、估值性价比与事件催化的三重共振因素决定的：科技产业遵循“硬三年、软三年、商业模式三年”的规律。2022年—2025年是AI基础设施（算力、大模型）的投入期，根据长江证券数据，2012年—2023年算力需求翻了数十万倍，AI算力需求远超摩尔定律，未来10年AI算力需求将再增长500倍，这一阶段算力芯片、服务器、光模块等基础设施迎来爆发式增长。而2026年被明确定义为“AI应用投资元年”。随着模型能力的成熟和推理成本的下降，市场焦点正从“谁有卡”转向“谁有场景”和“谁有流量”。阿里作为拥有电商、本地生活、支付等最高频刚需场景的巨头，其商业化落地的确定性最强。同时，阿里战略也在发生质变。2026年或是阿里AI战略的决胜之年。阿里已明确提出全面布局“AI To C”，并于近期发布重磅产品——通义千问超级APP，依托阿里自研的通用大模型通义千问Qwen家族（包括Qwen2.5-Max、QwQ-32B等高性能模型），该APP在多模态理解、逻辑推理等方面具备行业领先能力，为C端场景落地提供坚实技术支撑。最后则是估值体系的重构。市场正在经历类似“DeepSeek时刻”的认知重塑，意识到中国互联网巨头在AI应用层的潜力被低估，阿里云作为中国最大的云服务商，其EBITDA率持续提升，且AI收入占比已超过20%。根据长江证券测算，全球云计算市场规模2023年达5864亿美元，预计2027年将超过万亿美元，国内云计算增速大幅高于全球水平，阿里云2027年营收预期2100亿元，估值潜力巨大，市场开始用SOTP（分部估值法）重新评估阿里，认为其云业务和AI业务具备巨大的市值重估空间。（本文已刊发于1月31日出版的《证券市场周刊》。作者系方正富邦基金经理，嘉宾观点仅代表个人，不代表本刊立场。）觉得文章对您的投资有帮助，点击右下角“在看”，让更多小伙伴受益吧！⬇️观看“边看边涨”合集点击下方“阅读原文”","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 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