一图展望丨电商旺季与AWS加速增长双轮驱动，亚马逊Q4财报能否交出超预期答卷？

哈富证券02-05

亚马逊将于美东时间2月5日美股盘后(北京时间2月6日早间)公布25年第四季度业绩。市场普遍预期，该公司Q4营收将达2112.3亿美元，同比增长12.48%，每股收益1.96美元，同比增长5.35%。一、Q3财报简要回顾亚马逊三季度营收同比增长13%至1802亿美元，高于市场预期的1778亿美元；净利润212亿美元，与上年同期的153亿美元相比大幅增长39%；稀释后每股收益为1.95美元，高于市场...

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Can Amazon's Q4 financial report deliver unexpected answers?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZU":0.6,"AMZY":0.6,"AMZW":0.6,"AMZZ":0.6,"AMZD":0.6,"USAW.SI":0.6,"AZYY":0.6,"AMZN":1.98},"content_text":"亚马逊将于美东时间2月5日美股盘后(北京时间2月6日早间)公布25年第四季度业绩。市场普遍预期，该公司Q4营收将达2112.3亿美元，同比增长12.48%，每股收益1.96美元，同比增长5.35%。一、Q3财报简要回顾亚马逊三季度营收同比增长13%至1802亿美元，高于市场预期的1778亿美元；净利润212亿美元，与上年同期的153亿美元相比大幅增长39%；稀释后每股收益为1.95美元，高于市场预期的1.57美元。二、Q4财报前瞻全球零售业务：假日季消费驱动强劲增长根据美国商务部数据及PMI订单指数，2025年Q4美国零售销售增速预计超过8%，叠加感恩节至圣诞节的传统消费旺季，整体电商市场环境有利。美银汇总的信用卡交易数据显示，四季度线上消费保持稳定，进一步验证了这一趋势，为亚马逊电商业务提供了坚实的基本面支撑。Prime会员生态构筑深层护城河会员体系已成为零售增长的稳定引擎。目前约2亿美国人为Prime会员，占网购人群比例高达77%，这一渗透率在全球电商中居于绝对领先地位。据摩根大通研报和媒体测算，2025年Prime会员费已调升至159美元/年，延续“每四年涨20美元”的定价节奏，为收入提供可预测支撑。物流效能进一步巩固体验优势：2025年全球Prime会员当日/次日达配送量突破130亿件，连续三年创最快纪录。其中美国区配送量超80亿件，同比增长逾30%，杂货与日用品占比过半。高效配送不仅强化用户黏性——美国会员年均节省运费约550美元，相当于会费近4倍——也推动跨品类购买频次提升。广告业务：需求旺盛驱动高增长参照Meta发布的强劲四季度业绩，在线广告市场整体需求旺盛，亚马逊广告业务凭借电商场景精准投放与流媒体广告扩展，近几个季度保持20%以上增长，预计本季度将继续受益于零售旺季流量高峰与品牌促销投放。AWS：核心增长引擎全面提速云计算业务（AWS）预计将成为本季最大亮点。美银预测其营收同比增长22%，较三季度的20%进一步提速，主要驱动力来自：产能持续扩张：四季度新增1吉瓦电力容量支撑业务需求，当前仍处“供不应求”状态，为定价提供支撑。AI算力需求强劲：近期AWS对关键AI算力服务EC2机器学习容量块实施约15%的价格上调，高端实例p5e.48xlarge每小时费用从34.61美元升至39.80美元。此举标志着云服务行业“只降不升”的定价惯例被打破，反映AI算力资源紧缺下的议价能力提升。AWS表示调价将用于再投资AI基础设施与能效优化。技术竞争力强化：Rainier项目与自研芯片（Trn）产能提升，进一步增强在高性能计算与AI训练场景的差异化优势。资本开支与成本管控：投资未来与提升效率并行资本开支高位上行公司前三季度资本开支已近900亿美元，全年指引上调至1250亿美元（此前为1180亿），且CFO预计2026年可能继续增长。瑞银指出，AWS计划在2027年前实现产能翻倍，是推高资本开支的主因。这些投入主要用于数据中心建设、物流网络扩张及AI基础设施，为中长期增长夯实基础。成本纪律显著强化2026年1月，亚马逊确认裁减约1.6万个企业文职岗位，加上去年10月的1.4万人，三个月累计裁员达3万人，约占企业及技术岗位总数的10%。CEO安迪·贾西自上任以来持续推动成本优化，并明确表示未来将通过广泛部署AI提升运营效率，员工总规模预计将持续精简。这一系列举措有望在财报中体现为利润率改善与自由现金流提升。三、机构观点四、期权信号亚马逊期权的看跌/看涨比率目前为0.72，低于上一个财报季节的水平，表明看空动能有所减弱。隐含波动率(IV)数据显示其波动率为46.74%。过去财报公布后的第一个交易日，股价平均波动6.22%。五、总结综合以上因素，亚马逊2025年Q4财报有望呈现\"营收稳健增长、AWS加速、利润改善\"的积极态势。短期内需关注AWS定价策略调整对客户留存的影响及资本开支对现金流的压制，但中长期来看，公司在电商领域的护城河、Prime会员体系的网络效应以及AWS在AI算力市场的领先地位，将支撑其持续创造价值。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"dataReport","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.42.0","shortVersion":"4.42.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2609236073","isCrawlerRequest":true}