关键AI客户CPO大单，“光模块巨头”Coherent掉队的担忧解除了？

华尔街见闻02-05

在最新公布的财报季中，Coherent以超出预期的业绩表现和极为强劲的订单指引，有力回击了市场此前对其在AI光通信竞赛中可能“掉队”的担忧。这家光通信巨头不仅展示了全面加速的增长态势，更通过获得关键AI客户的订单，重新确立了其作为拥有极少产品组合缺口的技术领导者地位。受此推动，华尔街投行纷纷上调对Coherent的目标价。摩根大通将目标价从215美元大幅上调至245美元，并维持“增持”评级，理由...

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href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3765075><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>在最新公布的财报季中，Coherent以超出预期的业绩表现和极为强劲的订单指引，有力回击了市场此前对其在AI光通信竞赛中可能“掉队”的担忧。这家光通信巨头不仅展示了全面加速的增长态势，更通过获得关键AI客户的订单，重新确立了其作为拥有极少产品组合缺口的技术领导者地位。\n受此推动，华尔街投行纷纷上调对Coherent的目标价。摩根大通将目标价从215美元大幅上调至245美元，并维持“增持”评级，理由...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3765075\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU0820561818.USD","symbol_name":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM 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lifted?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"DCI":1,"OCS":1},"content_text":"在最新公布的财报季中，Coherent以超出预期的业绩表现和极为强劲的订单指引，有力回击了市场此前对其在AI光通信竞赛中可能“掉队”的担忧。这家光通信巨头不仅展示了全面加速的增长态势，更通过获得关键AI客户的订单，重新确立了其作为拥有极少产品组合缺口的技术领导者地位。\n受此推动，华尔街投行纷纷上调对Coherent的目标价。摩根大通将目标价从215美元大幅上调至245美元，并维持“增持”评级，理由是公司正处于全产品线需求强劲与产能爬坡带来的加速增长期。摩根士丹利虽维持“中性”评级，但也承认订单能见度显著提升，将目标价从190美元上调至200美元。市场普遍认为，随着AI数据中心支出的持续火热，Coherent正迎来新的盈利增长周期。\n最新的财务数据显示，Coherent在2026财年第二季度（截至12月）录得营收16.86亿美元，每股收益（EPS）1.29美元，双双超出华尔街预期。更为关键的是，公司数据中心产品的订单出货比超过了4倍，管理层透露2026自然年的产能已基本“被预订一空”，且2027年的订单也在快速填充。这一“供不应求”的局面，直接驱散了投资者对于其市场份额流失的阴霾。\n\n尽管营收端表现亮眼，但利润率的扩张速度仍是市场关注的焦点。摩根士丹利指出，虽然需求端极其火爆，但Coherent在毛利率上的表现仅是符合预期，并未像部分竞争对手那样充分享受到供应紧张带来的定价红利。不过，随着公司内部磷化铟（InP）产能的翻倍扩张以及更高端产品（如1.6T光模块）的出货占比提升，机构普遍预计其盈利能力将在未来几个季度进一步增强。\n需求井喷与产能“军备竞赛”\n本次财报最核心的亮点在于订单能见度的空前清晰。据摩根大通报告，Coherent的数据中心产品在第二季度末录得超过4倍的订单出货比，这主要得益于800G和1.6T光模块的强劲需求。管理层明确表示，2026自然年的大部分产能已被预订，2027年的产能也在迅速填满。这种需求不仅局限于收发器，还扩展到了数据中心互连（DCI）产品和光路交换（OCS）系统，后者目前已拥有超过10个客户的参与度，潜在市场规模超过20亿美元。\n为了应对这种爆发式需求，Coherent正在进行激进的产能扩张。公司正按计划在内部将磷化铟（InP）产能翻倍，目前已完成80%的晶圆投片目标。同时，公司还在马来西亚和越南增加产能，以支持收发器及其供应链组件的订单交付。摩根大通分析师认为，随着产能瓶颈的缓解，数据中心业务的营收环比增速有望从第二季度的14%进一步加速。\nCPO大单确立技术领导地位\n除了传统光模块的放量，Coherent在下一代技术上的突破也为市场注入了强心剂。据摩根大通透露，Coherent宣布获得了一项主要的共封装光学（CPO）解决方案大单，其中包括向某AI数据中心客户提供高功率激光器。\n这一进展极具战略意义，它不仅证明了Coherent在CPO领域的实力，也平息了投资者关于其技术路线落后的疑虑。摩根大通指出，结合近期EML和硅光收发器的出货，以及下半年VSCELs的放量，这些都再次印证了Coherent是拥有极少产品组合缺口的技术领导者。摩根士丹利也提到，公司获得了一份用于CPO的大额采购订单，预计将在2026自然年末开始贡献收入，并在2027年变得更加可观。\n业绩超预期与指引上调\n从具体的财务数据来看，Coherent交出了一份稳健的答卷。2026财年第二季度，公司实现营收16.86亿美元，高于摩根大通预期的16.30亿美元和市场共识的16.41亿美元；调整后EPS为1.29美元，同样高于预期的1.22美元。通信业务同比增长44%，数据中心业务同比增长36%。\n基于强劲的在手订单，Coherent上调了第三季度的业绩指引。公司预计营收将在17.0亿至18.4亿美元之间，EPS将在1.28至1.48美元之间，均高于此前市场预期。\n摩根大通因此上调了对公司2026和2027财年的营收增长预期，分别从十几的百分比增长上调至接近20%和20%以上，并预计2027自然年的每股收益将超过8美元。\n利润率隐忧与估值逻辑\n尽管营收和订单形势喜人，但利润率的表现却出现了一丝杂音。摩根士丹利在报告中指出，尽管拥有超过4倍的订单出货比和极其紧张的市场环境，Coherent的毛利率指引却略显令人失望。相比竞争对手能够通过定价权获得更高的利润率扩张，Coherent似乎尚未完全从这种供需失衡中获益。第二季度毛利率为39.0%，仅符合预期，并未带来惊喜。\n然而，摩根大通对此持更乐观态度。该行预计，随着更高利润率的1.6T产品放量以及产能利用率的提升，公司的毛利率将在2026年下半年突破40%的门槛。\n在估值方面，摩根大通基于2027年预期EPS给予Coherent 30倍的市盈率，认为其理应享受AI数据中心投资受益者的溢价，将目标价定为245美元。摩根士丹利则相对谨慎，给予28倍的市盈率和200美元的目标价，认为虽然长期增长故事完整，但在短期利润率兑现上仍需观察。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"corporation","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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