摩根大通预警：黄金等贵金属未来几周将进入盘整期

追风交易台02-08

贵金属的单边上涨行情已暂时告一段落。据追风交易台消息，摩根大通技术策略师Jason Hunter及其团队周四发布报告称，尽管长期牛市趋势的基础依然稳固，但在经历了近期的剧烈波动后，技术形态显示市场已正式进入盘整期。该行预计，黄金将在4264-4381美元的支撑位上方和5100-5150美元的阻力位下方形成一个可能持续数月的宽幅震荡区间。报告还指出，美元指数在100关口下方的徘徊，以及标普500/...

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Hunter及其团队周四发布报告称，尽管长期牛市趋势的基础依然稳固，但在经历了近期的剧烈波动后，技术形态显示市场已正式进入盘整期。该行预计，黄金将在4264-4381美元的支撑位上方和5100-5150美元的阻力位下方形成一个可能持续数月的宽幅震荡区间。报告还指出，美元指数在100关口下方的徘徊，以及标普500/黄金比率的走势，暗示长期的“货币贬值交易”并未结束。当前贵金属的盘整是牛市中的休整，而非熊市反转。黄金短期盘整，长期牛市逻辑未变摩根大通技术团队分析认为，近期黄金价格表现出短期的“喷发式”反转特征，这通常是盘整期到来的前兆，但这绝非长期反弹的终结。从战术层面看，金价将在冲击5100点大关前经历一段必要的休整期。投资者需关注关键的技术点位以界定震荡区间：下行方面，金价的初期反弹将受到中期支撑位的考验，尤其是4500点处的50日移动平均线，以及位于4264-4381点区域的2025年第四季度形态突破区。上行方面，反弹动能预计将在5000点附近衰减，更强的阻力位于5100-5140点区间。报告强调，结合长期价格形态及类似1970年代末的货币贬值周期末端对比，长期的货币贬值周期尚未完成。这意味着牛市基础依然存在，当前的盘整更多是为后续走势蓄势。铜：回调即买入机会与贵金属相比，摩根大通认为基本金属将展现出更强的韧性。尽管LME铜价在触及14095-14596区间的中期目标后显示出上涨疲态并形成减速形态，但顺周期轮动将为其提供支撑。技术面上，随着市场进入盘整，首个支撑位预计位于12074-12105点区域。更为关键的中期支撑位于11100-11200点，只要市场交易维持在这一多年区间突破区域之上，长期看涨趋势即保持完好。值得注意的是，报告通过回归分析指出，铜价飙升部分由“货币贬值资金流”推动，隐含的全球制造业PMI预期（约53）远高于实际读数（约50.5）。尽管铜价可能略微高估了周期性复苏的力度，但顺周期趋势的完整性意味着铜在回调时将吸引实质性的买盘兴趣。宏观驱动：美元疲软支撑长牛大宗商品长期看涨逻辑的核心支撑依然来自外汇市场。美元指数在1月下旬尝试突破2025年下半年支撑位后出现剧烈震荡，目前仍受困于明确的区间内。摩根大通指出，关键在于美元指数在过去八个月主要运行在100这一关键长期拐点下方。只要价格持续低于该水平，市场就容易恢复自2025年初开始的下跌趋势。这一弱势美元环境将继续支撑贵金属及大宗商品的长期看涨逻辑。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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