非银金融行业点评：全力巩固资本市场稳中向好全面看好非银板块

国盛证券02-05

资金面扰动出清，全力巩固资本市场稳中向好势头。1）政策面——坚定资本市场定位，全力巩固向好势头：资本市场“十五五”规划上市公司座谈会上表示，吴清主席明确证监会将高质量编制和实施好资本市场“十五五”规划，全力巩固资本市场稳中向好势头。2）市场表现——2026 年A股活跃度再上新台阶。2026 年初至今，A 股市场日均股票成交额近3 万亿，较2025 全年日均成交额增长72.58%；截至2026 年2...

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万户，环比去年12 月的259.67 万户增长89%，同比2025 年1 月的157 万户增长213%。A 股市场情绪高涨，活跃度再上新台阶，同时监管逆周期调节下远未到情绪过热阶段，资本市场整体保持活跃度健康提升。3）资金面——交易压制进入尾声：为增强资本市场内在稳定性，防止市场大起大落，前期监管在市场逆周期调节过程中，券商及保险板块受到交易层面的扰动，目前市场整体恢复平稳运行，对板块的资金面制约因素逐渐出清。非银板块整体业绩与估值均具备强beta 属性，全面看好非银板块。保险：资负共振，寿险景气度提升新周期确立。1）资产端：长端利率企稳、资本市场稳中向好，保险投资端全面向好，具备业绩弹性，且头部公司利差损风险大幅缓解释放估值修复空间。2）负债端：开门红表现为全年新单奠定良好基调，有望提振2026 年负债端整体表现，寿险行业长期持续受益于银行存款搬家趋势，除银行存款外，保险也是具备刚性兑付特征的金融产品。多元化的理财储蓄、医疗、养老等保险需求将推动行业持续扩容。随着头部险企产品结构转向分红险，投资环境的向好进一步提升保险产品的竞争力，实现资产负债两端正向循环。券商：慢牛环境下，基本面与估值严重错配，配置性价比高。2025 年全年A 股市场股基日均成交额2.08 万亿，同比增长70.36%；IPO 审核通过家数同比大增109.43%，募资金额增长208.01%；全年上证指数上涨18.41%、沪深300 指数上涨17.66%、创业板指上涨49.57%。已发布业绩预告的上市券商合计归母净利润同比增长约60%左右，头部券商稳健增长，部分中小券商业绩弹性凸显。在资本市场长期健康发展、活跃度持续提升的环境下，券商基本面将持续受益，但目前估值与基本面严重错配，券商行业整体PB 仅1.36 倍，前期显著滞涨，当前位置配置性价比高。投资建议：1）保险：监管稳定A 股相关举措对资金面和情绪面带来短期压制，但中长期资负共振逻辑没有变化，继续积极看好保险板块。2）证券：市场风险偏好抬升、交投活跃度维持高位，券商从估值到业绩均具备β属性，全面受益。3）建议关注中国平安、中国人寿、新华保险、国泰海通、中信证券。风险提示：1）权益市场大幅波动对净利润的影响；2）政策落地情况不及预期；3）寿险需求疲弱导致新单、NBV 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非银金融行业点评：全力巩固资本市场稳中向好 全面看好非银板块

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非银金融行业点评：全力巩固资本市场稳中向好全面看好非银板块