全球内存陷入大缺货，高通、Arm齐发预警：芯片将挤压智能手机产能

华尔街见闻02-06

全球高带宽内存（HBM）短缺正从数据中心迅速向消费电子领域蔓延，智能手机行业已成为首要承压环节。这场由人工智能基础设施需求激增引发的“内存危机”，正在对全球电子产品供应链形成结构性冲击。全球最大智能手机芯片生产商高通与英国半导体设计企业Arm Holdings相继发出预警，指出HBM的持续短缺将直接限制智能手机产量。作为全球最大的智能手机处理器供应商，高通首席执行官Cristiano Amon在...

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Holdings相继发出预警，指出HBM的持续短缺将直接限制智能手机产量。作为全球最大的智能手机处理器供应商，高通首席执行官Cristiano Amon在财报电话会上表示：\n\n“从行业层面看，内存供应紧张和价格上涨，或将直接决定整个手机市场的整体规模上限。”\n\n据Amon透露，部分客户已表示将在今年削减手机生产计划。据报道，多家主流智能手机制造商正着手下调其2026年出货目标，其中一家的调整幅度据称高达20%。\n这场短缺被普遍视为中长期结构性挑战。英特尔首席执行官陈立武直言：“据我所知，短缺局面不会缓解。”市场研究机构TrendForce进一步预测，今年生产的高端内存芯片中预计将有70%被数据中心吸纳，消费电子领域的分配份额将持续受到挤压。\n人工智能需求挤压消费市场\n由人工智能基础设施驱动的数据中心需求，正对全球高带宽内存（HBM）供应形成显著的“虹吸效应”，消费电子领域面临持续挤压。美光科技指出，AI相关高端半导体需求激增，导致内存芯片短缺在过去一季度进一步加剧，且此局面预计将持续至今年以后。\n高盛分析师William Chan近期向客户发出警示，强调当前内存短缺“真实存在且正在加速”，其根本驱动力来自AI基础设施建设的庞大需求，这已导致智能手机、个人电脑等依赖高带宽内存的消费电子产品出现严重供应缺口。\n市场价格已直观反映供应紧张态势。据亚马逊价格追踪平台CamelCamelCamel数据，Crucial Pro DDR5 64GB内存条在过去六个月内价格从145美元骤升至790美元，涨幅超过四倍，凸显产业链上下游的供需失衡正迅速传导至终端消费市场。\n行业巨头纷纷下调预期\n内存短缺的影响正在整个电子产品供应链持续传导与深化。芯片制造商联发科本周在分析师电话会议上坦言，供应状况“正在动态演变”。高盛分析师Allen Chang近期已因内存制约，下调了2026至2028年全球个人电脑出货量预测。\n任天堂已成为内存成本飙升的早期直接受影响者。其股价近期承压，主要原因被归咎于包含HBM在内的关键零部件价格上涨将显著侵蚀其产品利润率。高盛分析师早在去年12月便首次预警任天堂将面临HBM供应困境。\nArm作为从智能手机行业技术授权中获得主要收入的企业，同样未能免受此轮短缺冲击。行业内部人士上周表示：“如果你计划购买任何消费电子产品、个人电脑或智能手机……现在就是时机。”此番言论侧面反映出市场对供应链紧张与未来价格走势的普遍预期。\n短缺或持续数年\n分析师和行业高管普遍认为，这场内存危机不会很快结束。英特尔首席执行官的悲观预测反映了业内共识，在人工智能需求持续强劲的背景下，消费电子产品的内存供应紧张可能成为常态。\nTrendForce的预测显示，数据中心今年将占据高端内存芯片产量的绝大部分，这意味着留给消费电子产品的供应空间极为有限。这种结构性失衡短期内难以扭转，因为内存制造商正在优先满足利润率更高的数据中心订单。\n对投资者而言，这场短缺重塑了电子产品行业的投资逻辑。消费电子设备制造商面临成本上升和产量受限的双重压力，而内存芯片制造商则受益于价格上涨和数据中心需求激增。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"2","news_tag":"economic","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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