腾讯想要AI社交，缺的不是元宝和10亿红包

蓝鲸财经02-04

文｜最话FunTalk 林书每个星期五，上校都会去邮局取信，尽管曾在战场上一呼百应，但是非成败转头空，现在，“没有任何东西属于上校”。这是反复出现在马尔克斯小说《没有人给他写信的上校》的一幕，谁能想到，类似的魔幻现实场景，会在2026年伊始，复刻在我的微信里。不过两天前，伴随着元宝派现金红包的刷屏消息，我被拉进了一个元宝派群，刚开始，很热闹，大家各种@元宝写段子、画图开涮群主，但很快便沉寂了，每天...

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月26日的腾讯年会上，马化腾就特意提到这个活动，并表达了一个目标：\"希望此举能够重现11 年前的微信红包神话。\"这话就像个冲锋号，“安静”已久的腾讯，全体都动员了起来，试图再复制一次“微信红包神话”，以元宝派为切入点，在AI 赛道上弯道超车。但细究起来，当年微信红包成功，恰逢支付从PC 转向手机的时间点上，春节红包天然具有社交属性，又正好激活了沉睡在钱包、银行卡里的钱，“社交+支付”双刚需加持，时机、场景、心理预期，每一个变量都踩在了正确的节点上。而腾讯元宝想要激活的，是人们对\"AI 助手”这个低频工具的日常使用习惯，还在摸索阶段。事实上，“AI+社交”这条路，也已经有人趟过了——结果并不乐观。2025 年10 月，OpenAI 发布Sora 2，除了影片生成能力的飞跃，还推出了一款名为\"Sora\"的iOS 社交App，核心功能是\"Cameos\"（让用户录制影像，将自己插入AI 生成的场景），试图打造一个以AI 创作为核心的短视频社交平台，但实际情况是：两个月后，Sora的用户留存率已接近0%。紧接着，2025 年11 月，OpenAI 又推出了ChatGPT 群聊功能，允许最多20 人在同一对话中与ChatGPT 协作。这次尝试同样遇冷——用户反馈称，AI 在群聊中“过于鸡肋”，最终这个功能悄无声息地被边缘化。两次失败，指向同一个结论：用户在社交场景中需要的是情感连接，而AI 的插话，更像是一种干扰而非增益。腾讯显然是也意识到了这一点。在1 月26 日的年会上，马化腾罕见地表示：\"微信AI 全家桶未必大家都喜欢\"，并强调\"微信慢一点推出Agent 智能化也没问题，需要仔细思考逻辑”。这是一个非常克制的表态，腾讯还是那个稳扎稳打的腾讯。这次选择在独立的元宝App 上内测”元宝派”社交功能，其实最终都是为在微信这个国民级应用为接入AI 助手做测试。10 亿红包是不小，但对于腾讯来说是不过是九牛一毛，用这钱探索AI 社交玩法，并不贵。虽然难言必胜，腾讯确实是不得不这样做，它就像个上一次大考没考好的优等生，正在拼命补课。01有马化腾的重视，微信给予了元宝派红包极大的支持，这是崇尚“不打扰用户”的张小龙罕见的“让步”。此次，元宝派红包得以深度打通腾讯最核心的资产社交关系链，红包在微信群、朋友圈持续刷屏、裂变。这种将“压箱底”的社交生态资源进行“跨链联动”的导流力度，在腾讯历史上是极为少见的。即使这种放任刷屏的拉新引起了不少微信用户的不满，但为了争夺AI入口，腾讯算是暂时将战略优先级放在用户体验之上了。依托红包在微信里的裂变，2月1日，元宝就成功登顶苹果商店免费App排行榜首位，成为当天全网下载量最高的应用。但在当晚，一些网友就发现，元宝App出现异常，AI对话功能无法使用情况。到2月2日上午，相关功能已经恢复正常。这个小插曲暴露了元宝红包的关键不在“红包”，而在它背后那条看不见的”算力生产线\"——而这恰恰可能最薄弱的环节之一。元宝派与当年的微信红包，虽然都发生在春节这个流量最密集的战场，但调用的算力完全不是一个量级。微信红包是典型的“高并发、低消耗”场景——考验的是”快与稳”的金融级并发处理能力，主要靠CPU 阵列，每笔交易的计算量微乎其微，技术挑战主要来自“峰值”。而元宝派是“高并发、高消耗”场景，每一次用户与AI的交互，都需要大模型在GPU 集群进行推理运算，考验算力集群的吞吐能力。元宝、元宝派的核心是实时AI交互，用户每一次与AI的互动，例如让元宝总结群聊、生成拜年图片或回答问题，都需要后台的大模型进行一次推理。这个推理过程涉及数百亿甚至更多参数的神经网络进行大规模并行计算，远比处理一次金融交易消耗的算力资源多。行业分析认为，AI多模态交互的单位用户算力需求可能是纯文本场景的3到5倍。因此，元宝派面临的不仅是并发请求的数量压力，更是每个请求背后巨大的计算复杂度压力。如果说微信红包大战是数字时代在“连接”层面的压力测试，那幺元宝这次掀起的AI红包大战则是AI时代在“计算”层面的终极考场。这意味着，如果腾讯的算力储备撑不住，这场春节红包大战可能会演变成一场大型“翻车现场”——AI响应慢、答非所问、甚至服务崩溃。2 月1 日晚上的小插曲算是一次预言。马化腾对算力的问题是高度重视的，据说他曾过问起元宝团队，算力够不够用。马化腾并不是过虑了，他在年会讲话中一个容易让人忽视的细节是，他提到，腾讯自研大模型的主要问题在于“infra 不足”。在AI领域，Infra指的是AI模型训练和运行提供算力支持的数据中心、服务器集群等硬件及配套系统，按知名科技博主阑夕的说法，“说人话可能就是，缺卡”。坊间流传着一个传闻：腾讯曾向英伟达订购了价值数十亿的GPU算力卡，但在2022 年启动“降本增效”后，腾讯最终宁愿违约支付赔偿金，也要退掉这笔订单。而后因为美国的芯片管制升级，再想订购新卡就极为困难。一个可以相印证的侧面是，在全球科技巨头在斥资囤积GPU的2025 年，腾讯2025年三季报却显示腾讯资本支出总额录得130亿元，同比减少24%，较二季度的191亿元环比下降约32%。当时，腾讯总裁刘炽平解释道，这一变化并不反映公司AI战略调整，与对未来算力或token消耗预期也无关，而是受AI芯片供应情况影响。刘炽平还称，当AI芯片供应紧张时，腾讯会优先内部使用，而非对外出租。他表示，当前腾讯用于内部的GPU资源是足够的，但外部云收入存在限制。这些话综合起来，你细品再细品。相较之下，字节跳动在断供之前储备了大批算力卡，阿里也持续加码GPU采购，“用一辆辆卡车来采购GPU”，据传连消费级显卡RTX 4090都不放过。目前阿里、字节跳动已具备10万卡级别的算力储备。当然，腾讯在陆续“补课”，目前也手握十万张以上的算力卡。如果一切顺利，它们将在春节迎来更大的考验。02我们认为，没人能教腾讯怎么做社交。在挑战腾讯社交帝国的征途上，堆满了米聊、飞信、来往、多闪、子弹短信等等挑战者的“骸骨”。在可预见的未来，也无人能撼动微信的超级地位。但腾讯无近忧必有远虑，算力只能算半个，大模型上的落后，才是腾讯最大的心腹之患。元宝内置的是腾讯自研的混元大模型和接入的deepseek 大模型。这次元宝派调用的会是哪个模型呢？元宝AI 自己是这么说的：在国内大模型的竞争格局中，阿里通义千问（Qwen）已然领先。2026年1月26日，阿里刚刚发布了Qwen3-Max-Thinking，这是一个总参数超过1万亿、预训练数据规模高达36T Tokens的旗舰推理模型。在全球权威基准测试中，Qwen3-Max-Thinking的性能已经可以媲美GPT-5.2-Thinking和Claude-Opus-4.5。虽然混元大模型已在腾讯的广告定向、游戏内容生成、元宝智能助手等核心场景，并帮助腾讯赚到了钱，但其实被普遍认为处于国产模型的第二梯队，与第一梯队是存在着不小的差距，更与腾讯的体量、行业地位严重不匹配。腾讯云在2025年宣布混元大模型全面降价,其主力模型混元-lite从0.008元/千tokens直接调整为全面免费,混元T1推理模型的输出价格仅为DeepSeek标准时段的1/4。降价不一定代表算力充足,更像是在激烈竞争下，混元不得不采取”赔本赚吆喝”的价格战策略。如果说计算卡还可以买，但基础模型是买不来的。在AI时代持续依赖外部模型,那么无论基于它在应用层做得多好,都只是在别人的地基上盖房子。混元大模型再不赶超，就相当于把腾讯的未来都拱手交出去了。混元大模型进展不如期待，跟腾讯过于稳扎（保）稳打（守）有关。马化腾在2023年股东大会上曾说：“我们最初以为AI是互联网十年不遇的机会，越想越觉得，这是几百年不遇、堪比发明电的工业革命级机遇。”但他话锋一转指出，对于工业革命而言，早一个月拿出电灯泡，在长周期维度下并不那么重要。“目前还在做一些思考。现在很多公司太急了，我们一贯不是这种风格。”既然老板都不急，整个公司自然就更不急，既没有大规模招募 AI人才，也没有积极储备算力，对外始终强调的是，更看重AI 的落地应用以及产生的效益。那段时间与腾讯的朋友们交流时，一个很直观的感受是公司对AI 的紧迫性确实不高，甚至并不是优先事项。彼时腾讯正处在“降本增效”期间，连技术中台也要自负盈亏，其中就包括元宝App此前所在的技术工程事业群（TEG），而云与智慧产业事业群（CSIG）自转向“被集成”后，更是业务线以及人员都进行了不小的“优化”。预算削减，技术团队无法静下心，自然会影响到AI这种需要集团层面确定资源配置，并且接受长期投入但短期看不到经济回报的新兴业务。当ChatGPT在2022年底掀起AI热潮时，百度、阿里、字节跳动在2023年3月到8月就迅速发布了各自的大模型。相比之下，腾讯直到2023年2月才组建“混元助手”项目组，是头部大厂中最晚推出自研大模型的。但公允地说，腾讯的谨慎与当时的大环境有关。2022年游戏版号总量减少约32%，对腾讯最赚钱的业务造成冲击，股价持续下跌，抖音的强势崛起也让腾讯如鲠在喉，以至于马化腾在2022-2023年多次强调视频号是“全场的希望”，而非AI。不能说腾讯没有预判到AI 的巨大潜力，只是多重内外因素压力下，腾讯不得不保持“股东友好策略”，强调ROI。直到DeepSeek 横空出世，对中国乃至全世界的AI 业界都带来了极大的震撼。它成功挑战了AI领域此前盛行的“规模至上”传统思维，通过混合专家模型（MoE）架构、多头潜在注意力机制（MLA）等创新技术，在保证性能的前提下将训练成本降低了一个数量级以上。更重要的是，DeepSeek在美国芯片出口限制的背景下，通过在CUDA更底层的PTX层面进行优化，实现了在较低性能硬件上的高效运行。这种“降维突破”证明了算法创新可以部分克服硬件约束，其开源策略更是颠覆性的，很大程度上改变了全球不得不向闭源模型缴纳“AI 税”的格局。我们了解到的是，阿里、蚂蚁在研究完DeepSeek 后，都在反思“为什么DeepSeek 没有诞生在我们这”，马云还专门会见了梁文峰。是的，在阿里系内部，AI 其实也是赛马机制，阿里主攻通义，蚂蚁则研发百灵，两者在一段时期内甚至视对方为竞对。腾讯内部应该也是进行了反思，但正如一位在腾讯工作的朋友所言，创新一般都不会出现在大公司。打不过就加入，事实上，腾讯是最彻底拥抱DeepSeek 的科技大厂，在马化腾的推动下，元宝迅速接入DeepSeek，并在线上线下都投入大量广告资源，将用户量做大了三千万规模，仅落后于字节的豆包、阿里的千问，好不容易握住了一张“二等舱船票”。在接入DeepSeek 后，元宝一度将其设置为默认模型，就让“亲儿子”混元大模型的地位显得颇为尴尬。过去一年,经过知耻而后勇的投入和升级后，混元大模型是有所进步——例如2025年12月5日,腾讯混元2.0正式发布,采用混合专家(MoE)架构,总参数达406B。但这些进步，放在全球竞争的坐标系里看，仍然是”追赶者”的姿态,而非”领跑者\"的位置。从这个角度看,这10亿现金的本质,更像是腾讯通过春节这个全网级的流量场景,强行验证自己的AI基础设施是否真的能打，以及让涌进来的用户帮助“调教”元宝AI 助手背后的混元大模型。从目前对元宝派里的AI 助手的实际体验来看,混元大模型的表现并不算有多好。1月27日,我体验了元宝派的内测版本。在群内@元宝时，AI的响应速度肉眼可见地迟缓，稍微复杂点的专业问题就无法回答，画的图与给出的提示词不能说是驴头不对马嘴，起码也是有待改进。这还只是在小范围内测、流量和需求远未达到峰值的情况下。如果春节期间亿级用户涌入，以这个响应速度和性能，会发生啥样情况呢？03虽然腾讯的社交护城河足够宽足够深，但当阿里押注“AI+电商”、字节发力“AI+娱乐”时，腾讯判断AI入口的争夺窗口期正在快速收窄，只能用自己最擅长的“AI+社交”来破局，必须用上非常规手段。除了算力、基座模型方面有所欠缺，事实上，腾讯过去的组织架构也已经不适应AI 时代。1月26日的那场年会上,马化腾透露了一个关键词——\"Co-design\"(联合设计)。他说:\"姚顺雨(腾讯首席AI科学家)加入之后,公司加快吸引人才的力度,重构研发团队,以及在内部加快了Co-design设计,强化混元大模型和元宝的协同。\"这句话意味着腾讯将以组织升级以适应AI时代的变化。基础设施团队、大模型技术团队、前端产品团队从规划阶段就深度融合，打穿部门墙，共同定义产品形态和技术路径，快速迭代。过去两年,腾讯的AI打法是各自突破，独立的大模型团队，独立的元宝团队，元宝要自己去微信、QQ、腾讯会议里要流量。这种做法的问题在于,AI的底层模型与产品脱节，整个AI 体系既缺乏领导者，也没有形成强有力的组织合力。而姚顺雨加入后，腾讯算是有了真正跑过一遍LLM 的技术精英，有马化腾的当众授权，由姚顺雨牵头“Co-design”就是顺水推舟的事情。但对于姚顺雨领衔的“Co-design”来说，最大的难题并不是技术，而是重构腾讯赖以生存的基因——“联邦制”。过去二十年，腾讯的成功建立在“赛马机制”和高度自治的事业群（BG）制度之上。微信是张小龙的“独立王国”，王者荣耀是互娱（IEG）的摇钱树，腾讯会议属于云与智慧产业（CSIG）。这些诸侯虽然都姓“腾”，但数据不互通、接口不开放、利益不一致，是众所周知的秘密。而原生Agent的核心逻辑是什么？是“集权”。一个能够帮你在元宝或者微信里回答问题、订票、在日历里提醒、帮助你玩游戏的超级Agent，前提是它必须拥有跨越所有APP的高权限，能够随意调用微信的社交链、腾讯文档的数据、游戏的数据接口。这才是姚顺雨面临的真正难题：他要在一个诸侯割据的联邦里，建立一个需要高度集权的中央大脑。他手中的“Co-design”尚方宝剑，到底能推倒多少部门墙？原生Agent化微信的打造，不仅是一个产品，而是一场注定不平坦的“削藩”运动。当下大模型的本质，其实是一种算法、数据、算力的“暴力美学”，在算法驱动下，它需要集中最优质的数据、最庞大的算力，去Scaling出一个通用的超级大脑。在这方面，腾讯的微信社交数据、搜索行为数据，都是行业顶尖的“富矿”，且丰厚的现金流也不会使其缺乏那点买卡钱。但腾讯与阿里、字节的关键差距，不在于“有没有”，而在于数据和算力在组织内的存在形式。字节从起家那天起，全公司就一套底层架构（中台系统）。无论是今日头条、抖音还是后来的豆包，它们产生的数据是标准化的、全公司打通的，这是一种十分“集权”的生产关系。但相较之下，腾讯的数据和算力，却是“固态”的。腾讯的数据被锁在不同的“深井”里。出于隐私和安全，微信的数据很难动，互娱的数据也是不互通。你要练大模型，需要调拨微信的数据，需要互娱（游戏）开放接口，需要云增加算力和带宽。在腾讯，各个事业群（BG）的独立性很高，AI 时代要将BG 拧成一条绳，就需要打通组织、数据、API 的次元壁。改掉“联邦制”，可能意味着腾讯内部的权力、权限分配要重新划分；强推“数据共享”，可能意味着微信要重置隐私沙盒。但在AI迅猛发展的当下，为了避免成为“倒下的巨人”，腾讯也不得不做出了改变。据报道，腾讯的TEG正在进行架构调整，未来，TEG还将继续深化与各业务部门的合作，推动智能体在微信、QQ及游戏等多个领域的全面落地。这说明马化腾也意识到，指望各个BG自发协作是不可能的，必须派一个带有“钦差大臣”性质的人（姚顺雨），直接拿着尚方宝剑去协调资源。但话又说回来，很多事情并不是绝对不能做，或者做不了。在马云的指导下，阿里就既将通义改为千问，取代夸克成为其争夺AI 超级入口的主力，并且接入了淘天、飞书、高德、支付宝、钉钉等几乎阿里的全矩阵产品，并且是“系统级打通”，能在对话界面内完成从意图理解到执行的全闭环。虽然马化腾对千问深度整合阿里生态的尝试表示赞赏，但同时又认为“用户不一定喜欢全家桶，且生态内也不是所有的服务都是业界最好的。”但显然，未来微信或者元宝演进的方向必然就是Agent化，只是与阿里千问的生态内闭环不同，腾讯更倾向于将AI能力融入并赋能其核心的社交生态与企业服务平台，并且向创业者开放生态。这是比元宝派拉新更艰难的事，不可能依赖DeepSeek，腾讯是可以借用DeepSeek辅助撑住体验，但必须加速混元大模型的研发和Agent化，那才是腾讯的命根子。毕竟短短两天时间，用户侧已经给了反馈，都2026年了，简单粗暴的发红包，是解决不了留存和促活问题的。某种程度上，它甚至在削弱AI的价值，这本该改善人类生存方式的技术，伴随着红包雨的落下，爆开，被定格在了一个很小的数字——一块或者八毛。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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