元宝们春节攻势的当头炮，没有预想中炸裂

窄播WEEKLY02-02

有用性才是AI助手建立用户粘性的根本依仗。AI助手的春节红包大战开打，但除了流量狂欢，我们没看到任何有意思的AI体验。早上8点多，我在一个群里看到了第一个元宝红包链接，之后陆续有人开始在不同的群里分享链接，一个上午就形成了大规模的裂变，许多沉寂已久的微信群都重新被元宝红包链接激活，小红书上也出现了大量关于元宝红包互助的笔记。与之同步，元宝在App Store免费榜上的排名也在下午稳定在第一名的位置...

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href=https://tech.ifeng.com/c/8qMd74BpD5S><strong>窄播WEEKLY</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>有用性才是AI助手建立用户粘性的根本依仗。AI助手的春节红包大战开打，但除了流量狂欢，我们没看到任何有意思的AI体验。早上8点多，我在一个群里看到了第一个元宝红包链接，之后陆续有人开始在不同的群里分享链接，一个上午就形成了大规模的裂变，许多沉寂已久的微信群都重新被元宝红包链接激活，小红书上也出现了大量关于元宝红包互助的笔记。与之同步，元宝在App Store免费榜上的排名也在下午稳定在第一名的位置...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://tech.ifeng.com/c/8qMd74BpD5S\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU0261947096.USD","symbol_name":"FIDELITY FUNDS  SUSTAINABLE ASIA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) 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Store免费榜上的排名也在下午稳定在第一名的位置。同一天，百度APP文心助手也开启了春节红包活动，并表示已有近5000万人次使用AI功能抢红包。与腾讯选择AI原生产品元宝作为主战场不同，百度的5亿春节红包是在百度APP内部发放，来激励用户在百度APP内完成切换。一位朋友告诉我，腾讯元宝红包让他感受到了一种“经济上行的美”。过往两三年的春节已经很难有红包玩法能调动如此大的流量。究其原因，一方面是AI助手确实处于发展的上行期，到了走向更大众的时间点；另一方面则是腾讯的投入确实很大，除了马化腾在公司年会上进行预告，还进行了大规模投放。这种轰炸下，我当然也加入了这股潮流，但积极性并没有维持太久。当我发现抢红包的次数有每日限额之后，便不再分发我的红包链接。至于元宝想要通过红包吸引我体验的做同款内容、和元宝聊春节话题、高情商AI好友，我也都体验了，但没有获得任何差异化体验。下午，我又参与了到各个文章中寻找元宝派邀请码的项目。说实话，我对这个项目有两个不解：一是不能理解这个被“重视”的功能，目前竟然真的就没有一点有意思的创新。二是不能理解为什么不能像文心一样全量放开，以及为什么不想全量放开，还要在大量公众渠道里让大家抢邀请码。我们觉得，春节攻势第一天的以上体验至少可以说明四点。有必要修正春节攻势的预期今年的春节大概率不会像2015年一样一战定胜负。尽管当字节牵手春晚，千问整合阿里生态，腾讯和百度分别拿出10亿和5亿来发红包的消息在一个月内纷至沓来，会造成一种要在春节期间一决胜负的热闹氛围，但互联网产品和AI助手是两种不同的逻辑，简单做类比并不恰当。大部分互联网产品是出生即长成的逻辑，在上线之初往往就确定了基本的产品价值，然后产品的高完成度叠加庞大流量的灌注，能够快速跑马圈地，留住用户使用习惯。但AI助手是先搭框架再填内容的逻辑，真正吸引用户留下的是有价值的内容，也就是技术能力和场景体验。现在，AI助手之争只剩下豆包、千问、元宝、文心等少数参与者，但这些产品各有各的优势和不足。豆包用户体量大、运营手段灵活、背后有抖音流量，但缺乏生态纵深；千问有生态，缺流量池，运营脑洞不够大；元宝有社交加持，基础模型弱、能力辨识度低；文心有搜索积累，但存在感偏弱。现在几方的竞争态势是，豆包、千问发展势头更猛，但元宝和文心都有进行继续一搏的决心，所以会抢先发力春节大战。腾讯和百度都是从互联网时代跨越到移动互联网时代的入口持有者，此前积累的资源依然能支撑他们继续参与AI时代的入口之争。因此，虽然竞争参与者的弹药都很充足，但因为产品体验不够成熟，无论是红包还是春晚吸引来的短时庞大流量，都很难成为决胜的关键。我们更愿意将这场春节攻势看作是一次对豆包上春晚的积极防御，一场兼顾内部士气提振与外部存在感提升的大团建。AI助手应该向大众展示有用马化腾在提到元宝发红包时有两点希望：一个是希望能重现2015年微信红包的高光时刻；另一个是希望借春节这个超级社交场景，让更多人感受到腾讯AI的价值。第一点我们上面讲到了，可能会再现流量盛况，但难以动摇行业格局。第二点，我暂时也没有感受到腾讯AI的独特性。第一天的红包任务中，腾讯和百度都仍然在让大家体验AI助手的内容生成能力和聊天对话能力。但经历了2025年的快速普及，人们对于基础的聊天、生图、生视频等AI能力有基础认知，没有Nano Banana那样的颠覆性升级，很难给用户留下印象，甚至可能因为体验不好带来负面认知。另一个体验，就是马化腾所说的结合腾讯自身社交和关系链优势的全新尝试——元宝派。马化腾表示，这个玩法之前是绝密项目，灵感来自腾讯会议群聊，核心是在AI助手中叠加社交属性，打造专属社交空间，未来还会探索更多通信功能。但在我费尽心机找到一个邀请码进入元宝派界面后，看到了元宝派推荐的四个场景：总结公众号内容、提醒集合、创意P图和一起听歌、看电影、投屏。这让我想到了2019年写过的一系列社交产品观察，元宝派像是从那些社交尝试中脱胎出来的边角料功能合集。生图也好，群聊也罢，这些偏娱乐且差异度不高的产品能力，都不是说服用户放弃豆包、千问，转向元宝的理由。也可能后续我们会看到元宝和元宝派能拿出更多能让人眼前一亮的体验，但这种体验需要更有用，以及与具体场景结合更紧密。从2025年到2026年，AI助手要走向大众市场，也要争夺用户时长。做广和做深都会聚焦在有用，而不是有趣上。人们对AI的诉求确实有一部分是陪聊天，但更多是期待通过聊天让其完成诸如资料收集、为孩子讲题、推荐旅行路线、制作PPT、生成绘本等日常任务。产品形态收敛，不意味着成熟腾讯和百度抢先发动春节攻势的一个客观原因是，各家在AI助手的产品形态上已经达成基础共识，当下的AI助手都有着相似的界面和交互，再不发力强化用户认知和市场存在感，可能就没有继续参与下一阶段AI助手竞争的机会了。但2026年的春节可能不是AI助手竞争的终局，而是白热化阶段的开始。大家会在这个阶段硬碰硬地比拼模型能力、场景理解、生态优势和资源厚度。马化腾的焦虑和腾讯的AI业务调整，都来自其在这种AI综合能力上的相对落后。从基础模型能力来看，各家有强有弱，但都没能形成绝对的技术领先。我们与几位业内人士的交流中，他们都认为未来这几家中可能不会出现像DeepSeek那种能引发全民热潮的纯技术突破。技术上的创新与场景叠加形成的功能，可能会是真正的变量。这也意味着，对于场景的选择和改造程度，会带来不同通用型助手之间的差异累积，成为影响用户选择AI助手的重要因素。AI助手需要针对不同场景来打磨完善能力，丰富AI助手框架下的内容，然后再结合互联网时代的流量竞争手段，将其推广出去，成为压在竞争天平上的筹码。千问和豆包都已经在用自己擅长的方式来丰富场景化的服务能力。千问此前打通阿里生态实现的点外卖、订车票，可以被看作是一种生活助理的能力。豆包最近则在推广基于视频通话实现的AI看展能力，甚至演化出了鉴定瓷器价格、品评朋友画作这样的玩法。豆包评价画作相比元宝，微信依然被大家视为腾讯在AI领域中的最大变数。一方面，每个人都在微信上积累了大量数据，且微信一贯的好口碑，让大家更放心将个人数据给其处理；另一方面，微信拥有小程序生态，本身就是一个操作系统，有便利的条件去养成一个AI生态。在此前的财报电话会上，腾讯总裁刘炽平就强调过对微信Agent的看重和期待。在公司年会上，马化腾也表示，微信不搞强制的AI全家桶，始终兼顾用户需求和隐私安全，只做底层连接，让创业者能在微信生态里打造自己的专属入口。被认为“起大早赶晚集”之后，百度也进行了一系列调整，打磨更具体的AI场景。在快速跟进春节攻势，与腾讯一起抢先发起红包活动同时，百度宣布组建了个人超级智能事业群组（PSIG），将百度网盘和百度文库合并，把个人办公层面的AI能力探索拔高到了更高的战略层面。争夺大众化节点非常关键这是我参与第一天红包活动之后得出来的一个结论。我问了几个远离互联网圈子的朋友，他们都没有参与今天的抢红包活动，甚至他们所在的群里也少有人发红包链接。在小红书上，也有用户吐槽自己完全不知道元宝还有口令红包，甚至还请了孟子义和曾舜曦来帮助推广。这表明，春节作为超级社交场景是产品发力的重要时间段，抢占春晚这样的大众化节点，对于一个希望广而告之的产品会非常关键。缺乏这样的大众化节点，就导致了元宝的红包活动没有实现广而告之，影响了第一天的爆发力。当然，广而告之之后，如何持续调动大众积极性也是一个问题。相比2015年的发红包玩法，现在的发红包更像是为了完成把钱发出去做的动作，而不是要激活用户的使用兴趣。我就不理解，一个AI助手为什么还要发口令红包，以及为什么红包活动设置毫无新意可言。大家真的应该好好想想如何借助大众化节点来调动用户使用AI助手的积极性。比如，千问点外卖的能力虽然会被质疑，但理论上，用户有点外卖的高频需求，只要千问补贴力度更大，很多用户就会优先选择千问，在一次次使用中养成AI点外卖的习惯。特别是，竞争远未结束，未来是持续的围绕技术、生态、场景进行的综合较量，还会有更多大众化节点争夺战。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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