15亿春节红包火力全开：字节守位、阿里反击、腾讯奇袭、百度猛追

蓝鲸财经02-02

文丨新博弈林一白近几年，在春节期间“撒钱”已经成为大厂抢占用户注意力的重要方式。从11年前微信借春节红包，新增绑定约2亿张银行卡，到后来抖音借助春晚合作，以“集卡+抢红包”的互动玩法拉出703亿次的超高互动峰值，卡位短视频电商，春节红包在过年期间释放的营销想象力，逐渐与酝酿下一个国民级App挂钩。而今年，大厂们将目标对准了AI超级入口的抢位战上。截至目前，腾讯、百度已经累计将15亿现金红包放入...

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林一白近几年，在春节期间“撒钱”已经成为大厂抢占用户注意力的重要方式。从11年前微信借春节红包，新增绑定约2亿张银行卡，到后来抖音借助春晚合作，以“集卡+抢红包”的互动玩法拉出703亿次的超高互动峰值，卡位短视频电商，春节红包在过年期间释放的营销想象力，逐渐与酝酿下一个国民级App挂钩。而今年，大厂们将目标对准了AI超级入口的抢位战上。截至目前，腾讯、百度已经累计将15亿现金红包放入奖池，字节跳动继续与央视春晚绑定，大年夜的红包雨大概率不会缺席，抖音的3亿红包玩法也已经上线，阿里旗下的通义大模型更名千问后，在C端市场的打法越来越激进……各家积极落子之下，今年注定又是一场酣战。豆包日活破亿，阿里率先开始反击2025年12月，据36氪消息称，豆包的日活用户已经突破1亿。在此之前，QuestMobile发布的2025年三季度AI应用行业报告数据显示，豆包以1.72亿月活反超DeepSeek（1.44亿）登顶。 结合这两组数据，一方面反映出用户规模迅速扩大的豆包，已经逐渐与同类产品拉开身位。另一方面，过亿的日活则意味着，国内AI应用市场离第一款国民级App的距离更近了。同在12月，豆包与中兴合作的工程样机努比亚M153正式发售，拿到系统级权限的豆包AI助手，可以轻松搞定比价、支付、导航、聊天等跨App的复杂操作。这在市场很快炸开了锅，原售价3499元的努比亚M153，在二手市场迅速被炒至上万元。不过，各大厂商很快对此采取反制措施，豆包手机的核心功能瞬间被卡了脖子。可即便如此，字节已经借此向外界传递出一个重要信号：豆包不只是将Chat作为超级入口的AI应用，更是具备调用各种工具能力的调度中心，后者是即将到来的Agent时代最为重要的核心能力。豆包手机的落地，宣告了这一长期以对话问答为主的AI产品，早已是复杂的“Agent集合”。这意味着，豆包不仅在C端市场拥有更高的国民度，同时也具备在B端市场分蛋糕的实力。依然在12月，字节面向B端的云和AI服务中心火山引擎，在上海世博中心举办了一场火山引擎FORCE原动力大会，会上，火山引擎总裁谭待公布了一组数据：中国超过九成主流车企、全球Top10手机厂商中的9家已是火山引擎客户。另外，有超过100万家企业与开发者正在其平台上调用豆包大模型能力，其中，超过100家企业的累计Tokens使用量已突破1万亿。换言之，豆包在C端市场迅速发酵，已然对B端形成反哺。犹记得2014年，微信的春节红包玩法一举创下10.1亿次收发总量，摇一摇互动峰值达到每分钟8.1亿次，这一举动甚至直接影响了移动支付市场后来的格局。当时，马云用“珍珠港偷袭”来比喻此事。如今，字节在AI超级入口上的打法，对阿里的影响不亚于又一次“珍珠港偷袭”，因为切入B端市场，直接指向了阿里通义的腹地，阿里如今激进地推进AI to C战略也在印证这一点。2025年11月，阿里通义正式更名千问，开始面向C端市场。在此之前，阿里围绕AI的布局主要着力B端，Hugging Face数据，截至1月9日，阿里的千问大模型累计下载量达到7亿，是目前全球开发者采用率最高的开源大模型。而在更名之后，阿里AI to C已然成为公司发展的关键战略。一方面，千问对标ChatGPT，并在两个月后全面接入淘宝、支付宝、淘宝闪购、飞猪、高德等阿里生态业务，实现点外卖、购物、订机票等AI购物功能，向所有用户开放测试。这个时间点刚好是在豆包手机问世后不久。随后在1月27日，阿里正式发布千问旗舰推理模型Qwen3-Max-Thinking，继续强化千问调用工具的原生Agent能力。另一方面，作为C端市场的后来者，阿里迅速选择以投流换增量的打法驱动用户增长。DataEye研究院旗下的ADX行业版数据显示，自2025年11月起，千问的买量数据迅速攀升至与元宝不相上下的位置。受此带动，千问上线一个月，月活用户便达到4000万，涨势凶猛。 但需要注意的是，无论是在C端面对体量有一定差距的豆包，还是在B端迎来与火山引擎的正面交锋，双方为了抢位Agent时代的AI超级入口，必然会展开更激烈的对决。此前，阿里千问已经独家冠名B站2025跨年晚会，并上线红包玩法，进一步拉近与年轻市场的距离。字节则继续绑定央视春晚，且在具体的合作上，字节有意将今年的推广重心放在火山引擎上，后者成为2026央视春晚的AI独家合作伙伴，豆包也将与之同步推进相关的互动玩法。腾讯打出社交牌，百度在C端奋起直追当然，更多玩家还在进一步搅乱战局。实际上，在豆包用户规模一路走高的过程中，腾讯的元宝、百度的文心AI助手等同类产品也在积极推进市场扩容。其中，腾讯对元宝的投入可谓“财大气粗”，AppGrowing估算数据显示，2025年，元宝投流高达150亿元。且从具体的投入分布看，元宝在2025下半年的投流力度明显拉高，三、四季度合计投入约105亿元。而这段时间正是豆包迅速扩张，逐渐反超DeepSeek登顶的阶段。作为对比，QuestMobile数据显示，元宝3000万左右的月活已经保持了一段时间，相对稳定地占据着行业第三的位置。这也反映出，腾讯的重金投入并没有换来用户的明显增长，而豆包的增长则不赖于投流。据了解，豆包基于C端市场的定位，在早期的开发中，与面向B端的阿里通义、百度文心一言等产品相比，并不过度追求解决问题的质量，而去探寻这样一个AI产品能够解决哪些问题。因此，相对于以质量换取B端市场的回报，豆包给出了更具吸引力的价格。据字节跳动产品与战略副总裁朱骏透露：豆包大模型定价0.0008元/千Tokens，这一价格仅为当时市场普遍价格的约1%。这样的运营模式，使得豆包在短时间内迅速吸引到大量开发者涌入。基于此，在后来的市场竞争中，豆包虽然不是最“聪明”的，但却显现出更强的拟人化特点。一如眼下，豆包指导用户穿搭、豆包监督孩子做作业等内容在抖音上的传播度非常广，其毒舌俏皮的对话能力，是其出圈的重要原因，可见豆包的高速增长本质在于内容驱动。在这样的发展趋势下，腾讯终于拿出了“杀手锏”。首先是其屡试不爽的春节红包玩法。1月25日，腾讯旗下AI应用元宝发布公告，将在2月1日开启新春活动，用户上元宝App即可参与抢10亿现金红包，其中单个红包金额最高可达1万元。腾讯对此颇为重视，随后的年会上，马化腾表示希望此次活动能重现当年微信红包的盛况。 其次，在继续砸钱之外，腾讯打出了其有着核心优势的“社交牌”。同在年会上，马化腾提及元宝要做社交类产品元宝派，并声称这本来是绝密的项目。在具体的产品设计上，元宝派的定位是一个AI与用户共同娱乐、协作的社交空间，用户通过建群，可实现与好友、与AI的同步交互。单从功能上看，这与目前抖音群中已经接入的AI助手有一定相似之处。不过，元宝派之后的功能还会继续升级，陆续开放上线“一起看”，“一起听”等玩法，后者将接入腾讯会议的音视频底层能力，进一步丰富AI社交空间。这也意味着，在千问接入阿里生态资源之后，元宝也已经在推进生态布局，而借助生态辐射多平台能力和资源，是豆包目前的短板所在。同样不得不“拼”的还有百度。在元宝官宣红包玩法之后，百度也宣布将拿出5亿现金，给文心助手用户发春节红包，单个金额最高1万元。 值得注意的是，相比于百度面向B端市场的文心一言，此次这一重磅活动针对的是其接入百度搜索生态内的AI入口文心助手，也就是面向C端的产品。前不久，《华尔街日报》的一则报道显示，文心助手的月活用户已突破2亿。但是，百度在重金投入的同时也在自断其臂。因为在接入AI助手之后，其搜索的大部分首条结果都已被AI生成的内容覆盖，而其搜索业务的核心盈利方式是竞价广告，AI结果的介入，进一步收窄了其广告收入空间。财报数据显示，2025年第三季度，百度核心营销收入153亿元，同比下降18%，这是其连续第六个季度出现负增长。不过，从其发放5亿巨额红包的动作看，百度已然做出了选择。由此可见，当抢位国民级AI应用的关键战役，撞上春节这一超级流量窗口期，各家都不得不放手一搏。此战之后，行业格局是否改写，我们不妨拭目以待。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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