甲骨文(ORCL.US)最新融资成功安抚市场：CDS暴跌17%，缓解“AI债务浪潮”担忧

智通财经02-03

智通财经APP获悉，甲骨文(ORCL.US)计划通过债务和股权融资筹集 500 亿美元，这提振了投资者对该公司能够避免信用评级下调的信心，因为该公司正在为其人工智能建设提供资金，受此消息影响，5 年期信用违约互换价格暴跌 17%。与此同时，分析师也指出，这有助于缓解市场对科技巨头庞大债务融资的担忧。股债双线融资缓解市场担忧，信用违约保险成本下降数周以来，由于市场担忧甲骨文在人工智能领域的投资即便...

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17%。与此同时，分析师也指出，这有助于缓解市场对科技巨头庞大债务融资的担忧。股债双线融资缓解市场担忧，信用违约保险成本下降数周以来，由于市场担忧甲骨文在人工智能领域的投资即便能够获得回报，也至少需要数年时间，其债券价格一直处于垃圾级水平。但周一，这家软件巨头发行的250亿美元债券获得了创纪录的需求，这些担忧似乎有所缓解。甲骨文上周日宣布，今年将在债务融资的基础上再增发约250亿美元的股权，此举引发了市场情绪的转变。此举让投资者放心，该公司在为数据中心进行大规模投资的同时，不会对其资产负债表造成过大的压力。这家科技公司的债券和股票在当天的大部分时间里都呈现上涨趋势。一些投资者表示，甲骨文融资带来的乐观情绪可能会蔓延至更广泛的信贷市场。资管规模约为6280亿美元的Allspring Global Investments的高级固定收益交易员Mark Clegg表示：“甲骨文的交易可能预示着投资级公司债券市场可以重新开始承担风险了，大型人工智能融资项目一直是市场的噩梦，预计未来几个季度将带来大量供应。然而，现在情况发生了变化——噩梦消失了。”巴克莱银行信贷分析师 Andrew Keches周一在给客户的报告中写道：“股权融资显著抑制了信贷下行风险。”凯奇斯将甲骨文的债务评级上调至“增持”，并表示其信用违约互换(CDS)价格应会进一步下降。在宣布发行债券后，甲骨文公司的长期债券在二级市场上涨，衡量该公司信用风险的指标也降至 2021 年 4 月以来的最低水平。甲骨文分八部分出售了债券，期限从三年到四十年不等。其中期限最长的债券收益率比美国国债高出1.95个百分点，低于此前预期的2.25个百分点左右。分析指出，甲骨文计划发行八期债券，总额最高可达250亿美元。随着融资确定性的到来，加上同等规模的股权融资以支持其人工智能资本支出计划，此次发行有望在经历了自2025年第三季度以来的显著低迷后，引发债券和信用违约互换市场的上涨行情。在评级机构确认甲骨文公司中等BBB评级后，分析师认为整个债券市场都具有强劲的投资价值，尤其是对于长期投资者而言，相较于40年期美国国债收益率的溢价有望随着时间的推移收窄50个基点，而最初的定价预期为美国国债收益率加上225个基点。甲骨文上一次进入美国公司债券市场是在去年9月份，甲骨文通过发行巨额债券筹集了180亿美元，这是科技行业有史以来规模最大的债务发行之一。去年底，由于市场担忧甲骨文公司庞大的数据中心建设项目会损害其资产负债表，使债务投资者面临风险，甲骨文的信用违约互换(CDS)价格飙升。信用违约互换就像投资者的保险，买家付费是为了在借款人无法偿还债务时获得保障。市场一直将五年期互换合约视为投资者对冲人工智能繁荣风险的一种方式。过去几个月，甲骨文公司一直处于“恐慌高峰”周期中，市场几乎对任何新闻都做出负面反应。甲骨文最新发债有助于缓解AI债务浪潮担忧今年美国高等级公司债券的发行量可能达到创纪录水平，摩根士丹利策略师去年预测发行量约为2.25万亿美元。但投资者对证券的需求依然旺盛，部分原因是企业利润依然强劲。债券的风险溢价徘徊在数十年来的低位附近。投资者认购了超过1290亿美元的甲骨文公司债券，超过了此前Meta Platforms(META.US)在10月份发行300亿美元债券时创下的1250亿美元的认购纪录。该公司在周日发布的声明中表示，预计2026年不会再发行债券。一些债券投资者此前预计，甲骨文公司今年将发行400亿至600亿美元的债券。未来几年科技公司发行的人工智能相关债券规模是影响市场表现的关键因素。Alphabet(GOOGL.US)、亚马逊(AMZN.US)、Meta 和甲骨文预计在 2025 年将在美国投资级公司债券市场发行约 930 亿美元，约占去年发行债券总额的 6%。尽管规模约为 8 万亿美元的市场轻松消化了首轮人工智能相关债券发行，但摩根大通预测，未来五年每年将有约 3000 亿美元的人工智能和数据中心相关交易。这些债券发行今年已经出现。IBM(IBM.US)上周发行了近75亿美元的美元和欧元债券，预计未来几周，在各公司公布财报后，会有更多公司效仿。摩根大通信贷策略师Nathaniel Rosenbaum表示，2月和3月通常是该行业最繁忙的月份，但未来两个月将比往年更加活跃。除了发行公司债券外，各银行还促成了价值数百亿美元的数据中心交易，甲骨文公司是这些数据中心的预定租户。其中包括为Vantage Data Centers在威斯康星州和德克萨斯州开发的新设施提供的380亿美元贷款，这些设施是该公司与OpenAI签订的星际之门大型人工智能基础设施合同的一部分。由于市场担忧甲骨文公司的融资计划及其对OpenAI的依赖，该公司股价自9月份达到峰值以来已下跌一半。据DA Davidson的分析师称，甲骨文剩余的5230亿美元履约义务中，至少有3000亿美元与OpenAI相关。但这些科技公司通常拥有稳健的资产负债表和良好的盈利能力。以甲骨文为例，该公司也在筹集股权资金，其中包括50亿美元的强制性可转换优先股。据知情人士透露，这些优先股的股息率为6.25%至7.25%。此外，该公司还将通过市场发行的方式，分阶段出售至多200亿美元的股票。甲骨文的大量借贷反映了人工智能增长所需的融资规模。甲骨文正在建设额外的产能，以满足其最大云客户的需求，这些客户包括AMD(AMD.US)、英伟达(NVDA.US)、Meta Platforms、OpenAI、TikTok和xAI。知情人士透露，美国银行、花旗、德意志银行、高盛、汇丰和摩根大通正在负责此次发行。在周一之前，甲骨文在机构美国高等级公司债券指数中的债务约为 950 亿美元，使其成为金融行业以外最大的发行人。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"shareholding","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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