未来美联储主席是鸽是鹰?小摩：沃什立场恐难持久，警惕中期选举后转向

智通财经02-02

智通财经APP获悉，摩根大通在1月30日发布的研报中对凯文·沃什获提名担任下一任美联储主席一事进行了深度剖析。报告指出，这位曾在2006年至2011年间担任美联储理事的官员，在金融危机后的岁月里常显露鹰派本色，然而近期言论却明显转向鸽派，恰好与现任政府的货币政策偏好同频共振。这种立场转换引发了一个关键疑问：沃什的真实政策倾向究竟如何，而这种倾向又能在多长时间内保持不变?小摩的分析师认为，今年的沃什...

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yuyanx
02-02
yuyanx
沃什落选[真香]

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href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1400555.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，摩根大通在1月30日发布的研报中对凯文·沃什获提名担任下一任美联储主席一事进行了深度剖析。报告指出，这位曾在2006年至2011年间担任美联储理事的官员，在金融危机后的岁月里常显露鹰派本色，然而近期言论却明显转向鸽派，恰好与现任政府的货币政策偏好同频共振。这种立场转换引发了一个关键疑问：沃什的真实政策倾向究竟如何，而这种倾向又能在多长时间内保持不变?小摩的分析师认为，今年的沃什...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1400555.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU0882574139.USD","symbol_name":"富达环球消费行业基金A 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JPMorgan: Walsh's position may not last, be wary of turning after the mid-term elections","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"JPM":1.88,"IVV":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"MESmain":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"OEX":0.6},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，摩根大通在1月30日发布的研报中对凯文·沃什获提名担任下一任美联储主席一事进行了深度剖析。报告指出，这位曾在2006年至2011年间担任美联储理事的官员，在金融危机后的岁月里常显露鹰派本色，然而近期言论却明显转向鸽派，恰好与现任政府的货币政策偏好同频共振。这种立场转换引发了一个关键疑问：沃什的真实政策倾向究竟如何，而这种倾向又能在多长时间内保持不变?小摩的分析师认为，今年的沃什很可能会为降息政策据理力争，但随着时间推移，特别是在中期选举结束、政府进入跛脚鸭阶段后，他的立场存在重新回归鹰派的风险，届时其政策取向可能面临重大调整。在探讨美联储主席对联邦公开市场委员会的影响力时，研报揭示了一个常被忽视的现实：尽管美联储主席拥有巨大声望，但FOMC其他成员对其的服从并非无限。历史经验表明，如果美联储主席试图将自己置于委员会立场的某一极端，反而可能面临被其他成员联手否决的尴尬境地——上一次出现主席在投票中落败的情况还要追溯到1986年。为了避免这种局面，历届主席在正式会议前都会与每位委员进行双边沟通，提前摸底探查共识所在。这种\"先协商后决策\"的机制意味着，即便沃什上任后力主降息，他也必须提出比上周三更具说服力的论据，毕竟仅仅批评现有模型的不足，与真正提供一个更优的预测框架之间存在着本质区别。针对沃什一贯主张的缩减美联储资产负债表规模的政策立场，研报表达了明确的质疑。虽然沃什认为更小的资产负债表将压低利率，且这一观点在委员会内部确有一些支持者，但摩根大通更倾向于传统看法，即缩表行为反而可能对长期利率施加温和的上行压力。这一技术判断与本届政府显然希望压低抵押贷款利率的政策目标形成了直接矛盾，构成了沃什未来政策推行中的一个潜在张力。在金融监管领域，沃什可能会与现任负责监管事务的副主席鲍曼保持高度一致，尽管他可能会在公开表态上更为直言不讳，而鲍曼在过去几年中一直是鲍威尔在监管事务上的主要依赖对象。关于提名确认的程序前景，报告指出了当前的政治复杂性。总统在社交媒体上宣布提名时并未明确说明沃什是否会填补米兰即将到期的理事席位。考虑到鲍威尔至今尚未宣布是否在五月任期届满后辞去理事职务，小摩猜测政府很可能会安排沃什接替米兰的席位。然而，来自北卡罗来纳州的参议员蒂利斯已经明确表示，在针对鲍威尔的刑事调查结束之前，他将反对确认任何美联储提名人，而参议院多数党领袖图恩也承认，没有蒂利斯的支持，相关程序难以推进。这种政治僵局可能导致一个意外结果：鲍威尔可能以临时主席的身份在五月之后继续留任，这种情况虽然尴尬，但反而为政府解决针对鲍威尔的调查、并最终在几周后确认沃什的提名提供了充分的政治动力。在货币政策展望方面，摩根大通维持其既有判断，即美联储将在今年剩余时间内保持利率不变。报告强调，当天早间公布的最新数据进一步证实，核心PCE通胀正进一步偏离政策目标水平，这从根本上削弱了近期内实施降息的理由。无论沃什的个人政策偏好如何，持续高企的通胀数据都将成为制约其政策空间的最现实因素。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":528396327842312,"gmtCreate":1770023901395,"gmtModify":1770023904142,"author":{"id":"4096258624810250","authorId":"4096258624810250","name":"yuyanx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/887f7a9dbeca6477e40873c169cc4c5e","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a2963eb37c60c5d6d4a8dbcd266952","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4096258624810250","authorIdStr":"4096258624810250"},"htmlText":"沃什落选[真香]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"沃什落选[真香]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"沃什落选[真香]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/528396327842312","repostId":2608851310,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2608851310","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1770021543,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2608851310?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-02-02 16:39","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"未来美联储主席是鸽是鹰?小摩：沃什立场恐难持久，警惕中期选举后转向","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2608851310","media":"智通财经","summary":"小摩的分析师认为，今年的沃什很可能会为降息政策据理力争，但随着时间推移，特别是在中期选举结束、政府进入跛脚鸭阶段后，他的立场存在重新回归鹰派的风险，届时其政策取向可能面临重大调整。针对沃什一贯主张的缩减美联储资产负债表规模的政策立场，研报表达了明确的质疑。考虑到鲍威尔至今尚未宣布是否在五月任期届满后辞去理事职务，小摩猜测政府很可能会安排沃什接替米兰的席位。","content":"<html><body><p>智通财经APP获悉，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>在1月30日发布的研报中对凯文·沃什获提名担任下一任美联储主席一事进行了深度剖析。报告指出，这位曾在2006年至2011年间担任美联储理事的官员，在金融危机后的岁月里常显露鹰派本色，然而近期言论却明显转向鸽派，恰好与现任政府的货币政策偏好同频共振。这种立场转换引发了一个关键疑问：沃什的真实政策倾向究竟如何，而这种倾向又能在多长时间内保持不变?小摩的分析师认为，今年的沃什很可能会为降息政策据理力争，但随着时间推移，特别是在中期选举结束、政府进入跛脚鸭阶段后，他的立场存在重新回归鹰派的风险，届时其政策取向可能面临重大调整。</p><p>在探讨美联储主席对联邦公开市场委员会的影响力时，研报揭示了一个常被忽视的现实：尽管美联储主席拥有巨大声望，但FOMC其他成员对其的服从并非无限。历史经验表明，如果美联储主席试图将自己置于委员会立场的某一极端，反而可能面临被其他成员联手否决的尴尬境地——上一次出现主席在投票中落败的情况还要追溯到1986年。</p><p>为了避免这种局面，历届主席在正式会议前都会与每位委员进行双边沟通，提前摸底探查共识所在。这种\"先协商后决策\"的机制意味着，即便沃什上任后力主降息，他也必须提出比上周三更具说服力的论据，毕竟仅仅批评现有模型的不足，与真正提供一个更优的预测框架之间存在着本质区别。</p><p>针对沃什一贯主张的缩减美联储资产负债表规模的政策立场，研报表达了明确的质疑。虽然沃什认为更小的资产负债表将压低利率，且这一观点在委员会内部确有一些支持者，但摩根大通更倾向于传统看法，即缩表行为反而可能对长期利率施加温和的上行压力。这一技术判断与本届政府显然希望压低抵押贷款利率的政策目标形成了直接矛盾，构成了沃什未来政策推行中的一个潜在张力。</p><p>在金融监管领域，沃什可能会与现任负责监管事务的副主席鲍曼保持高度一致，尽管他可能会在公开表态上更为直言不讳，而鲍曼在过去几年中一直是鲍威尔在监管事务上的主要依赖对象。</p><p>关于提名确认的程序前景，报告指出了当前的政治复杂性。总统在社交媒体上宣布提名时并未明确说明沃什是否会填补米兰即将到期的理事席位。考虑到鲍威尔至今尚未宣布是否在五月任期届满后辞去理事职务，小摩猜测政府很可能会安排沃什接替米兰的席位。</p><p>然而，来自北卡罗来纳州的参议员蒂利斯已经明确表示，在针对鲍威尔的刑事调查结束之前，他将反对确认任何美联储提名人，而参议院多数党领袖图恩也承认，没有蒂利斯的支持，相关程序难以推进。</p><p>这种政治僵局可能导致一个意外结果：鲍威尔可能以临时主席的身份在五月之后继续留任，这种情况虽然尴尬，但反而为政府解决针对鲍威尔的调查、并最终在几周后确认沃什的提名提供了充分的政治动力。</p><p>在货币政策展望方面，摩根大通维持其既有判断，即美联储将在今年剩余时间内保持利率不变。报告强调，当天早间公布的最新数据进一步证实，核心PCE通胀正进一步偏离政策目标水平，这从根本上削弱了近期内实施降息的理由。无论沃什的个人政策偏好如何，持续高企的通胀数据都将成为制约其政策空间的最现实因素。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-02-02 16:39 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1400555.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，摩根大通在1月30日发布的研报中对凯文·沃什获提名担任下一任美联储主席一事进行了深度剖析。报告指出，这位曾在2006年至2011年间担任美联储理事的官员，在金融危机后的岁月里常显露鹰派本色，然而近期言论却明显转向鸽派，恰好与现任政府的货币政策偏好同频共振。这种立场转换引发了一个关键疑问：沃什的真实政策倾向究竟如何，而这种倾向又能在多长时间内保持不变?小摩的分析师认为，今年的沃什...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1400555.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0882574139.USD":"富达环球消费行业基金A ACC","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","LU2462157665.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1244550494.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET INCOME \"A\" (USDHEDGED) ACC","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU0211328371.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (MDIS) (USD)   INC","LU0964807845.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME & GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","LU2211815571.USD":"ALLIANZ POSITIVE CHANGE \"AT\" (USD) 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