大客户又怎样？买内存都排队等着涨价去

电子工程专辑02-02

最近全球DRAM市场供需严重失衡，缺货到什么程度？就连苹果这样的头部客户的议价能力都不好使了。1月27日，据业内消息及韩媒报道，三星电子与SK海力士已与苹果达成协议，将2026年第一季度供应给iPhone的LPDDR内存价格大幅上调，其中三星涨幅超80%，SK海力士涨幅近100%。此次涨价的核心驱动力是全球互联网巨头及初创企业对AI基础设施的大规模投资。AI训练与推理需求爆发，直接带动了DRAM...

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I wait in line to buy memory and wait for the price increase","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"MUD":0.6,"AAPU":0.6,"AAPX":0.6,"AAPY":0.6,"AAPB":0.6,"MULL":0.6,"AAPD":0.6,"MU":0.9,"GS":0.61,"AAPW":0.6,"AAPL":1.95,"MACW.SI":0.6,"APLY":0.6},"content_text":"最近全球DRAM市场供需严重失衡，缺货到什么程度？就连苹果这样的头部客户的议价能力都不好使了。1月27日，据业内消息及韩媒报道，三星电子与SK海力士已与苹果达成协议，将2026年第一季度供应给iPhone的LPDDR内存价格大幅上调，其中三星涨幅超80%，SK海力士涨幅近100%。此次涨价的核心驱动力是全球互联网巨头及初创企业对AI基础设施的大规模投资。AI训练与推理需求爆发，直接带动了DRAM内存的激增，尤其是高性能DRAM产品。据市场研究机构TrendForce预测，2026年第一季度通用型DRAM价格将环比上涨55%-60%，而LPDDR5等移动端内存产品因需求集中，涨幅更为显著。与此同时，DRAM厂商的产能分配策略进一步加剧了供应紧张。为追逐AI领域更高的利润，三星、SK海力士等头部企业将产能从传统DRAM（如LPDDR）转向高带宽内存（HBM），后者是AI芯片（如GPU、TPU）的关键组件。这一转型导致消费级DRAM（如LPDDR5X）的产能被压缩，市场供应趋紧，价格随之飙升。苹果锁定上半年价格，下半年或再涨根据协议，三星电子为iPhone供应的LPDDR内存价格涨幅将超过80%，SK海力士的涨幅则接近100%。此次调价主要针对2026年第一季度的供货，而苹果仅与供应商敲定了上半年的价格。业内人士透露，由于当前内存供需危机，苹果未能签订全年长期协议，下半年随着iPhone 18 Pro系列等新品发布，LPDDR内存价格可能进一步上涨。尽管涨幅显著，苹果仍凭借其“超级大客户”的地位获得了一定议价优势。作为全球最大的智能手机制造商，苹果长期以低于行业均价的成本采购LPDDR内存。此次谈判虽缩小了价格差距，但苹果的采购成本仍低于其他厂商。例如，LPDDR5内存价格在2025年第四季度已上涨40%，2026年第一季度涨幅进一步扩大至60%以上，而苹果的采购价绝对值仍处于较低水平。苹果成本承压，供应链格局生变此次涨价对苹果的影响显而易见。内存成本占智能手机总成本的比重较高，LPDDR价格的大幅上涨将直接挤压iPhone的毛利率。天风国际证券分析师郭明𫓹指出，苹果虽计划通过服务业务弥补硬件利润损失，并尽可能维持iPhone 18系列的起售价不变，但成本压力仍不容忽视。2025年iPhone 17/Air系列发布价格如下：iPhone 17：256GB 5999元；512GB 7999元iPhone Air：256GB 7999元；512GB 9999元；1TB 11999元iPhone 17 Pro：256GB 8999元；512GB 10999元；1TB 12999元iPhone 17 Pro Max：256GB 9999元；512GB 11999元；1TB 13999元；2TB 17999元从供应链角度看，三星与SK海力士的涨价策略反映了行业资源向高附加值领域集中的趋势。AI需求推动下，HBM成为DRAM厂商的利润增长点，而传统DRAM市场则面临供应短缺与价格飙升。这种分化不仅考验着下游厂商的成本控制能力，也倒逼其加深与国产芯片厂商的合作，以分散供应风险。行业趋势短期来看，DRAM市场的供需失衡与价格高企局面难以缓解，或将在2026年和2027年持续下去。三星、SK 海力士和美光作为全球最大的内存公司，虽然正致力于扩大生产，但要实现扩产目标，需要“至少”两年的时间，这也是此次短缺将持续下去的原因之一。TrendForce数据显示，2026年第一季度LPDDR5价格涨幅可能超过60%，部分品类近乎翻倍。这种趋势将延续至下半年，尤其是随着iPhone 18 Pro等新品发布，需求进一步释放，价格或再创新高。高盛则在近期的调查报告中指出，自新年伊始，DDR5现货价格已出现大幅上涨，而 DDR4现货价格自2024年9月开始上涨，目前仍呈上升趋势。这意味着DRAM合约价格近期上涨动力强劲，原因是DDR5/DDR4 现货价格已经相较于合约价格产生了巨大溢价。高盛还预测，全球存储巨头三星今年的DRAM芯片平均定价将会每个季度环比增长，尤其是一季度增幅预计可达50%。高盛：三星今年DRAM芯片定价预计持续增长而野村在近期的报告中指出，全球存储器市场正在经历前所未有的“三重超级周期”，预计在2026年，DRAM、NAND和HBM的需求将同时激增。野村还判断称，在强劲的需求增长和有限的供应扩张影响下，这一超级周期将持续到2027年。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.42.0","shortVersion":"4.42.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2608837473","isCrawlerRequest":true}