1400亿！黄仁勋押注这一领域

创投日报02-02

至2030年，预计AI推理在整个AI计算市场将占到80%的份额，而聚焦于极致推理的AI芯片，未来会有更强的爆发性。作者 | 黄心怡随着大模型行业逐渐从大规模训练阶段走向推理落地阶段，业内分析普遍认为，2026年全球AI推理的需求将超过AI训练场景。不久前，英伟达以200亿美元（约合1400亿元）收购一家AI推理芯片初创企业Groq的技术授权，并把Groq核心团队招入囊中，来补全推理算力拼图。在近日...

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Jensen Huang bets on this space","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"89888":0.6,"00020":0.9,"09888":0.9,"06682":0.9,"NVDA":1.95},"content_text":"至2030年，预计AI推理在整个AI计算市场将占到80%的份额，而聚焦于极致推理的AI芯片，未来会有更强的爆发性。作者 | 黄心怡随着大模型行业逐渐从大规模训练阶段走向推理落地阶段，业内分析普遍认为，2026年全球AI推理的需求将超过AI训练场景。不久前，英伟达以200亿美元（约合1400亿元）收购一家AI推理芯片初创企业Groq的技术授权，并把Groq核心团队招入囊中，来补全推理算力拼图。在近日的采访中，曦望董事长徐冰向《科创板日报》记者判断称，至2030年，预计AI推理在整个AI计算市场将占到80%的份额，而聚焦于极致推理的AI芯片，未来会有更强的爆发性，并会对现有的算力系统造成冲击。另有AI芯片产业链人士也对《科创板日报》记者表示，未来，推理请求量与并发数将大幅增加，推理算力需求呈指数级攀升。▍推理算力需求呈指数级攀升“现阶段正处于以智能体为代表的人工智能新应用爆发初期，未来推理请求量与并发数大幅增加，推理算力需求呈指数级攀升。”一名AI产业链人士向《科创板日报》记者表示，“随着推理范式变化，AI智能体将加速落地，其整体算力消耗可达同参数规模大语言模型的10倍以上，对智能算力的需求呈数量级跃迁。目前，全球AI算力龙头正处于由训练转向推理的阶段。英伟达此前完成了对AI推理芯片公司Groq的收购，也是其迄今规模最大的一笔收购。Groq是一家专注极致推理的AI芯片企业，其创始人Jonathan Ross带领的谷歌TPU原班人马，用七年时间打造出LPU（语言处理单元）架构，曾宣称其推理性能是英伟达H100 GPU 10倍，而成本仅为其十分之一。此外，美国的Etched.ai、Groq等也是主打极致推理芯片路线的企业。这类公司的核心逻辑是，大模型架构已经收敛，因此放弃通用训练GPU，更专注于打造最快的AI推理芯片。在国内，也有企业瞄准这一方向。近日，从商汤科技拆分独立的AI芯片企业——曦望Sunrise，推出了聚焦于大模型推理的GPGPU 芯片启望 S3。在DeepSeek V3/R1满血版等主流大模型推理场景中，S3 的单位 Token 推理成本较上一代降低约 90%。曦望的目标是把百万 Token的推理成本降低至1分钱。为此，曦望联合商汤科技、第四范式等，发起“百万 Token 一分钱”推理成本计划。曦望联席CEO王勇认为，AI训练芯片赛道逐渐收敛，已经变成头部玩家的游戏。“如今，市场格局越来越清晰，能做预训练大模型的公司数量是有限的，因为门槛越来越高。而推理赛道还没有收敛。既有AI智能体，大语言模型，也有具身智能模型、世界模型等等，都会需要芯片来做推理任务。如果能把算力做到极致性价比，那么在下一代的芯片就占据了极有利的生态。”▍AI应用或借力春节加速落地从市场格局来看，相比英伟达在训练端一家独大。在推理端，由于对成本和能效的极致追求，技术路线呈现出百花齐放的态势，为国产AI芯片厂商带来机遇。对于后续国产AI芯片的市场格局，曦望联席CEO王湛认为，英伟达的市值达到4万亿美金，而中国或许将出现多家市值数千亿，甚至万亿人民币的GPU公司。“相较于美国，中国AI产业呈现出较为明显的区域化发展特征,国内不同GPU企业在各自优势地域市场占据主导.而互联网巨头们除自研芯片外，也在采购国产芯片，并已形成各自的深度合作伙伴关系。尽管中国GPU企业的总市值可能难以达到英伟达4万亿美元的高度，但即便以4万亿人民币计算，市场依然蕴藏着巨大的增长空间。”当前，AI产业链企业的高估值，也引发了市场担忧。曾领导瑞士银行商品策略团队的英国分析师朱利安·加兰认为，美国的资本配置不当，AI泡沫的狂热是互联网泡沫的17倍，2008年房地产泡沫的4倍。曾经历过互联网泡沫破灭的王湛认为，“当时的互联网泡沫之所以形成，很大程度上是因为尽管市场概念火热，实际用户规模却非常有限。如今，AI应用的月活用户规模已经破亿，其增长速度和行业渗透率，远超当年的互联网产品，也比整个互联网浪潮来得更快、更迅猛。”目前，百度、腾讯先后宣布旗下AI应用将在今年春节期间发放数亿元红包。阿里旗下的通义千问也计划加入红包促销行列。花旗在研报中表示，回顾以往，春节活动能有效帮助互联网大厂为其消费级应用吸引大量关注。预计在今年的一系列新春推广活动后，中国AI应用的普及进程有望进一步加速。王湛也看好春节对于AI应用的助推作用。“除了腾讯、百度等的红包促销，不少机器人也要上春晚。今年春节过完，中国的AI渗透率、使用率会进一步的提升，这也代表整个AI产业价值的提升。”在现阶段的AI产业架构中，最底层的芯片拿到了绝大部分价值。徐冰表示，AI芯片占据了整个AI产业价值70%甚至90%，这是现状。展望未来， AI芯片或许仍会占据整体AGI（通用人工智能）价值的大头。“试想一下，一旦AGI时代真的到来，机器人的数量会超过人类。这些机器人需要进行7×24小时的推理，所有的这些应用，包括物理AI、多模态等，会让推理的需求变得没有天花板。随着AGI时代的来临，我们需要构建一个推理的算力网络，让普惠的推理算力，能够为每一台机器人，每一台终端设备，每一个消费者，每一个企业所用。”","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.42.0","shortVersion":"4.42.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2608832849","isCrawlerRequest":true}