当 Model 3 卖不动了，特斯拉决定不光靠汽车赚钱

动点科技02-03

特斯拉不想做汽车公司文｜动点科技作者｜Steven Li排版｜黄文劼本文预计阅读时长6分钟特斯拉还是汽车公司吗？过去一年里，我们越来越频繁地自问这个问题——尤其当该公司汽车业务不断萎缩，而埃隆·马斯克始终强调特斯拉更应被视为 AI 与机器人技术领导者，而非单纯的四轮交通工具销售商。在特斯拉季度财报电话会议上，马斯克及其团队似乎对“特斯拉是否还想卖车”给出了答案。他们一举停产了旗舰电动汽车 ...

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from cars","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLI":0.6,"TSLS":0.6,"TSLP":0.6,"TSLY":0.6,"TSL":0.6,"07766":0.6,"TSLQ":0.6,"TSDD":0.6,"TSLR":0.6,"TSLO":0.6,"TSLW":0.6,"TESL":0.6,"TSLA":1.98,"TSLT":0.6,"TSLG":0.6,"TSII":0.6,"TSLZ":0.6,"CRSH":0.6,"TSYY":0.6},"content_text":"特斯拉不想做汽车公司文 ｜动点科技作者｜Steven Li排版｜黄文劼本文预计阅读时长6分钟特斯拉还是汽车公司吗？过去一年里，我们越来越频繁地自问这个问题——尤其当该公司汽车业务不断萎缩，而埃隆·马斯克始终强调特斯拉更应被视为 AI 与机器人技术领导者，而非单纯的四轮交通工具销售商。在特斯拉季度财报电话会议上，马斯克及其团队似乎对“特斯拉是否还想卖车”给出了答案。他们一举停产了旗舰电动汽车 Model S 和 Model X，为大规模生产人形机器人腾出空间（尽管这种机器人连基本任务都难以完成）。一位特斯拉高管表示，公司应该被视为“交通即服务”（transportation as a service）提供商，而不是汽车制造商。马斯克重申了他的观点，即特斯拉不需要生产更多大众市场车型，因为未来所有汽车都将能自动驾驶。“未来绝大多数行驶里程将由自动驾驶完成，“马斯克表示，“我推测可能低于 5%，甚至可能低至 1% 的里程会有人类驾驶员亲自操控车辆。”随后，马斯克进一步强调：“所以，我认为从长远来看……我们生产的唯一车型将是自动驾驶车辆。”特斯拉确实仍在制造和销售汽车，但基于马斯克的言论与行动，感觉特斯拉只是名义上仍是一家汽车公司。2025 年，特斯拉实现了 948 亿美元营收，其中 695 亿美元（即 73%）来自汽车销售。汽车业务收入一直在急剧下滑，同比下降了 10%，而其他业务板块：能源生产和储存、服务和其他收入却在上升。2025 年，特斯拉已经被比亚迪超越，失去了全球电动汽车销量冠军头衔。比亚迪 2025 年卖出 226 万辆纯电动汽车，而特斯拉全年交付量约为 163 万辆。尽管特斯拉努力推出价格更亲民的 Model 3 和 Model Y 车型（目前国内还没上市），但这两款主要车型销量仍在下滑。在全球范围内，电动汽车税收抵免和其他激励计划正在逐步取消，这些计划曾帮助降低电动汽车成本，使更多人能够负担得起这些车辆。此外，马斯克的政治活动及其极具争议的公众形象，也让特斯拉品牌在客户群体中变得声名狼藉。与许多科技公司一样，特斯拉寄希望托于订阅收入驱动的未来。该公司首次披露了 FSD（驾驶员监督版）订阅用户数量为 110 万，马斯克声称这比 2024 年第四季度增长了 38%。马斯克最近表示，特斯拉将停止单独销售完全自动驾驶功能，转而采用订阅模式。FSD 允许在高速公路和城市道路上实现免手控驾驶，但驾驶员仍需时刻关注路况，并在出现问题时随时准备接管车辆。多年来，特斯拉因完全自动驾驶的安全性和市场推广问题而面临多起诉讼和调查。在马斯克看来，完全自动驾驶和无人驾驶出租车代表着未来。他预测，特斯拉 Robotaxi 今年将在美国“数十个”城市投入使用，此前他曾宣布的扩张计划未能实现。他还大力宣传即将推出的特斯拉 Optimus 机器人“第三代”，并表示该机器人将于 2027 年底准备量产。自动驾驶不仅是特斯拉未来的关键，也是马斯克为自己解锁高达 1 万亿美元薪酬方案的关键。马斯克与股东们打了个赌：让我掌控一支机器人大军，我就让你们都发财。根据协议，他需要达成一系列雄心勃勃的里程碑才能获得这笔报酬，包括生产超过 100 万台机器人、100 万辆无人驾驶出租车，并为特斯拉股东创造 7.5 万亿美元的价值。但持怀疑态度的人可能会问，咱们还是看看协议要求吧。特斯拉还需要卖出数百万辆汽车，马斯克才能成为世界首位万亿富翁，对吧？其实，汽车销量里程碑很容易实现。如果特斯拉未来十年平均每年售出 120 万辆汽车（比 2024 年年销量还要少 50 万辆），那么马斯克将获得 82 亿美元股票收益——前提是特斯拉市值从目前的 1.4 万亿美元增长到 2035 年的 2 万亿美元。特斯拉汽车销量下滑似乎已经纳入了马斯克薪酬方案考量范围。值得注意的是，特斯拉汽车业务的衰落，每一步都得到了其董事会和股东默许。他们完全认同马斯克所描绘的那个由 AI、自动驾驶汽车和人形机器人主导的未来愿景——尽管特斯拉在追赶 Waymo 无人驾驶出租车技术方面步履维艰，Optimus 人形机器人也存在明显缺陷。联邦事故数据显示，即使车内配备安全员，特斯拉无人驾驶出租车的事故率也高于人类驾驶员。而且，特斯拉机器人大多远程操控，难以完成基本任务。马斯克本人在财报电话会议上也承认，Optimus 目前在特斯拉工厂“并未发挥实质性作用”。然而，特斯拉逐步脱离传统汽车制造与销售业务的战略转型并非孤立现象。总体而言，许多汽车制造商的长期目标是打造所谓软件定义汽车（software-defined vehicles，SEV），这个行业术语指可通过 OTA 不断改进的联网汽车。而这些公司主要目标是让客户通过订阅来支付这些升级费用。这也不难理解，毕竟，制造汽车是一项残酷、劳动密集型且利润率低下的业务。谁不想从订阅服务中获得丰厚的经常性收入呢？但特斯拉仅靠 FSD 订阅服务收入不足以弥补其主要收入来源：汽车销售。短期内无法实现，而且考虑到自动驾驶技术发展速度缓慢，长期来看也难。更何况，随着 Model S 和 Model X 停产，特斯拉产品线中又少了两个可以依靠的车型。追逐机器人 / 无人驾驶出租车的梦想代价极其高昂：特斯拉预计 2026 年资本支出将达到 200 亿美元，是 2025 年 85 亿美元的两倍多。首席财务官瓦伊巴夫·塔内贾表示，这笔创纪录投资大部分将用于生产 Cybercab（一款没有方向盘和踏板的全自动驾驶汽车）、特斯拉承诺已久的半挂卡车 Semi、Optimus 机器人以及电池和锂生产工厂的生产线。这些投资虽然巨大，但它们是特斯拉未来发展的关键。在财报电话会议接近尾声时，马斯克承认，很多支出都是“出于无奈”。他同时也强调了这些投资的重要性，并指出特斯拉需要自己建设这些设施，因为其他人可能难以满足特定需求与标准。总的来说，特斯拉正在全力以赴地推进自动驾驶和机器人技术研发与应用，尽管这需要巨大投入和努力。马斯克的愿景究竟何时能完全实现呢？未来一切都存在变数。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"corporation","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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