特斯拉豪赌！第三代Optimus剑指百万目标，Model S/X退场让路

格隆汇02-02

今日，特斯拉官微宣布，第三代特斯拉人形机器人即将亮相。这款机器人并没有沿用现有的供应链体系，团队从第一性原理出发，进行了重新设计。可通过观察人类行为即可学习新技能，通过演示、口头描述、展示视频让机器人执行任务。这也是特斯拉第一款走向量产的机器人，预计年产百万台。第三代Optimus人形机器人即将亮相值得一提的是，特斯拉Optimus 3将是一次重大升级，搭载了最新设计的机械手。第三代机器人也将是...

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The third-generation Optimus aims at a million-dollar target, and Model S/X exits to make way","themeId":"ac0b8a01a0e12a018db698b76a51d82b","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8e4456cf431835751fe34b72fd63006","symbols_score_info":{"TSLY":0.6,"TSDD":0.6,"TSLA":1.97,"TSLR":0.6,"TESL":0.6,"TSL":0.6,"TSLQ":0.6,"TSLS":0.6,"TSLW":0.6,"TSLZ":0.6,"TSII":0.6,"TSLT":0.6,"TSLO":0.6,"TSLI":0.6,"TSYY":0.6,"TSLP":0.6,"TSLG":0.6},"content_text":"今日，特斯拉官微宣布，第三代特斯拉人形机器人即将亮相。这款机器人并没有沿用现有的供应链体系，团队从第一性原理出发，进行了重新设计。可通过观察人类行为即可学习新技能，通过演示、口头描述、展示视频让机器人执行任务。这也是特斯拉第一款走向量产的机器人，预计年产百万台。第三代Optimus人形机器人即将亮相值得一提的是，特斯拉Optimus 3将是一次重大升级，搭载了最新设计的机械手。第三代机器人也将是首款面向量产的设计版本，首条生产线和供应链准备工作正在推进之中。Optimus 3的生产线规划最高年产能为100万台。而长期愿景是在V5时代实现年产5000万至1亿台。对于如此激进的产能目标，特斯拉的底气主要来源于技术与垂直整合、以及核心突破的灵巧手。具体来看，Optimus共享了特斯拉电动汽车的电池系统、摄像头视觉处理方案和AI算法。这种技术复用大大降低了研发成本和时间。与此同时，面对不成熟的供应链，特斯拉采取了高度垂直整合的策略，自研或深度介入核心零部件的生产，以控制成本、保障供应。另一方面，机械手则是量产的最大难点之一。第三代Optimus在灵巧手技术上取得突破，为它执行复杂任务奠定了基础，这是实现“通用机器人”价值的关键。近段时间，马斯克连发机器人Optimus相关推文，罕见提到了Optimus 4。这可能预示着Optimus 3量产条件已趋于成熟。如果特斯拉的蓝图成为现实，将会开创一个全新的巨大市场。高盛预测到2035年全球市场规模可达1540亿美元。马斯克：最大竞争对手在中国在此之前，特斯拉已经公布了两款人形机器人。第一代是“Bumble C”的行走原型机，能够行走、挥手、以及完成简单的搬运任务。这标志着项目从概念进入工程阶段，特斯拉还展示了更接近量产的第一代Optimus（Gen 1）的设计。第二代机器人更侧重于功能演示，步行速度相对于第一代提升30%，重量减轻10公斤。在2023-2024年，特斯拉展示了第二代机器人行走、抓取物体、在工厂执行任务的能力。关于现在的第三代机器人，特斯拉在2025年第四季度财报及电话会议中正式披露，将于2026年第一季度推出。此外，马斯克还表示，特斯拉将逐步停止Model S和Model X车型生产，将加州弗里蒙特工厂原生产线改造为Optimus专用产线，全力推进机器人规模化量产。对于人形机器人的行业竞争，马斯克直言，人形机器人领域目前最大的竞争将来自中国。中国在规模化制造和AI领域的实力都十分突出，AI模型表现不错且持续进步，无疑会成为特斯拉最强劲的竞争对手。近期，摩根士丹利上调了2026年中国人形机器人销量预测。摩根士丹利预计，2026年中国人形机器人销量将同比增长133%，达到28000台，较此前的预测14000台高出一倍。此外，中国人形机器人销量到2030年将达到26.2万台，到2035年将达到260万台，而2025年的销量约为1.2万台。不过，马斯克还强调，第三代Optimus机器人在智能水平、机电灵巧性上显著领先中国同类机器人，尤其在机器人手部设计这一行业难点上具备核心优势。人形机器人研发存在三大核心难题——复刻人类手部灵巧度、实现现实世界AI能力、完成规模化生产，而特斯拉是目前唯一同时掌握这三大能力的企业。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"productRelease","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":2,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.42.0","shortVersion":"4.42.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2608662498","isCrawlerRequest":true}