合并不只给AI输血，也是“马斯克经济体”的集体自救

电厂02-04

美国时间2月2日，马斯克旗下的人工智能公司xAI与商业航天公司SpaceX完成合并，从有消息传出到正式官宣仅经历3天。今年1月，xAI完成了一轮200亿美元的融资，估值约为2300亿美元。SpaceX目前估值达8000亿美元，上市后估值最高达1.5万亿美元。马斯克在 SpaceX 官网声明中表示，该举措旨在将算力中心部署在太空。他认为，将 AI 数据中心部署在近地轨道，可利用太空近乎无限的太阳能和...

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SpaceX、特斯拉、xAI 等）正在面临多线压力。在 xAI 持续烧钱、特斯拉增长承压的背景下，SpaceX 正被推到一个此前它极力回避的情形——融资上市，成为整个马斯克商业版图的资金中枢。“马斯克经济体”内部资源严重失衡“马斯克经济体”正面临截然不同的处境。对于SpaceX，是资源过剩，但增长空间已经十分有限。外媒援引两位知情人士称，SpaceX去年实现150亿至160亿美元收入，EBITDA利润约80亿美元。根据一些预测分析，SpaceX明年的收入预计将在220亿至240亿美元之间，这个数字甚至与NASA的年度预算相当。截至 2024 年，仅政府合同一项，SpaceX 的在手订单规模就达到 220 亿美元，客户涵盖 NASA、美国国防部和国家侦察局。星链方面，已有约 9000 颗卫星在轨，用户超过 900 万。但问题在于，发射次数与产能存在天然上限。即便资金充裕，火箭发射频次和制造节奏决定了 SpaceX 无法像互联网公司那样快速烧钱扩张。另外，受限于监管审查、竞争加剧等因素，SpaceX难以再获得大幅的订单增量，增长已经见顶。图源：SpaceX官网xAI的处境则是截然相反。xAI每月现金消耗约10亿美元，用以训练Grok、建造Colossus超级计算机集群等。据《信息报》报道，xAI已告知投资者，截至2025年前九个月，公司亏损约95亿美元。即便在去年获得了2亿美元的政府合同，这些收入比起巨额支出仍十分有限。作为一家成立时间并不长的人工智能公司，xAI 需要在模型能力、算力规模和人才储备上同时追赶多个强劲对手，这需要持续且高强度地烧钱。但xAI的外部融资并不占优势，其合并前的估值约为2300亿美元，而OpenAI在去年10月的估值达到5000亿美元，并将在下一轮融资中提升至约7500亿美元；Anthropic在今年签署了一份融资意向书，该融资对公司的估值为3500亿美元。人工智能的竞争本质是抢位赛，xAI对资金的紧迫性已经达到顶峰，而以往“马斯克经济体”中的“现金奶牛”特斯拉却在这时遇到了困难。1月29日，特斯拉披露2025年第四季度财报。2025 年全年营收948.27亿美元，同比下滑3%，创下公司史上首次年度营收下滑。其核心的汽车业务下行是主要原因，全年交付163.61万辆同比下滑8.6%，作为全球最大电动汽车制造商的地位也已被比亚迪取代。图源：特斯拉官方账号虽然自动驾驶和人形机器人的潜力还在支撑特斯拉的估值，但如果特斯拉长期无法兑现许诺，其市值必然会大幅下跌。目前，特斯拉FSD被多地区的监管拦在门外，Robotaxi的运营范围仍十分有限，在今年1月初才得到准许让部分地区的安全员离车。人形机器人Optimus计划在今年4月量产，但此前出现过多次量产计划跳票。SpaceX与xAI合并，与其说是输血给xAI，不如说是整个“马斯克经济体”的一次资源重新配置。而由于这个庞大生态紧密关联，财务独立的特斯拉也能从中获益。资源高效分配，特斯拉同样收益在宣布合并之前，马斯克旗下公司之间的资金与资源流动，早已十分频繁。单看资金往来，特斯拉今年 1 月宣布，将在最新一轮融资中向 xAI 投资 20 亿美元；SpaceX 也曾在 2025 年 7 月向 xAI 注资 20 亿美元。更早之前，2022 年马斯克收购社交媒体公司 X（原 Twitter）时，还曾向 SpaceX 借款 10 亿美元，并出售了价值数十亿美元的特斯拉股票来筹集资金，而这家 X 后续也成为了 xAI 的一部分。图源：X社交平台2015 -2016 年，SpaceX 曾向马斯克任董事长、且为最大股东的一家太阳能公司发行的债券投资 3.3 亿美元，该公司后被特斯拉收购。马斯克还曾透露，多年前他曾从 SpaceX 借 2000 万美元，助力彼时陷入困境的特斯拉，使其在 2008 年底堪堪躲过破产危机。这些公司的业务往来也十分密切。例如，特斯拉曾向SpaceX出售汽车零部件和太阳能设备，并且这家汽车制造商还依靠SpaceX为其Cybertruck皮卡开发了一种特殊合金。公开信息显示，特斯拉在2025年向xAI出售了价值4.3亿美元的巨型备用电池Megapack，约占特斯拉当年能源业务收入的3.4%，这些电池为xAI在田纳西州孟菲斯附近建设的数据基础设施提供电力支持。xAI的Grok已经成为特斯拉智能化的重要部分，X（原Twitter）还与特斯拉有广告、商业、咨询和支持等方面的合作。故而，SpaceX与xAI的发展，也会使来往密切的特斯拉从中收益。在人才、技术等资源上，这些公司也在共享。例如，特斯拉和SpaceX在业务上存在深度合作，比如共用一个专业的材料科学团队，并且在过去还曾共同使用企业资源规划（ERP）系统。据《CBT新闻》报道，自2023年7月成立以来，xAI已招募了至少11名特斯拉前员工，其中包括6名曾在特斯拉自动驾驶团队工作的员工，专注于人工智能驱动的自动驾驶技术。此外，xAI还获得了特斯拉Model X的关键图形处理器（GPU）和实时数据访问权限。图源：特斯拉官方账号而这样以马斯克为中心的资源共享与互换并不是让所有人都满意，例如已经上市的特斯拉，股东曾不满其资源被瓜分给另外的公司。有一项股东诉讼专门针对英伟达 GPU 从特斯拉向xAI和X的重新分配，认为马斯克正在以牺牲特斯拉的利益为代价，在 xAI 创造巨大的价值。报道还提到，马斯克辩护称这些英伟达芯片原本在特斯拉就无法使用，而且将来可以归还。尽管如此，这也揭露了马斯克在平衡旗下各业务相互冲突的需求、并维持投资者信心方面所面临的挑战。合并公司能最大程度减少资源共享的阻力，完成内部资源的高效配置，而特斯拉可能会成为最后一片巨大拼图。彭博社等多家外媒爆料称，SpaceX与特斯拉的合并也正在考虑中。一旦合并实现，一个估值可能超3万亿美元的巨无霸即将诞生。从前为了保护火星梦想，马斯克坚持多年让 SpaceX 保持私有化。而今 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