特斯拉的2026，一场关乎存亡的空前豪赌

新动力车语02-04

马斯克在特斯拉史上最差财报发布后，却宣布了一场规模空前的资本豪赌。作者 |路易新经济封面图| AI生成本文来自格隆（ID：guru-lama），新动力车语经授权后转载。“现在是时候让Model S和Model X项目光荣退役了。”2026年1月28日美东时间下午，特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克在2025年第四季度财报电话会议上平静地宣布了这一决定。就在几分钟前，特斯拉方才公布了公司史上首次年度营收下滑—...

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X项目光荣退役了。”2026年1月28日美东时间下午，特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克在2025年第四季度财报电话会议上平静地宣布了这一决定。就在几分钟前，特斯拉方才公布了公司史上首次年度营收下滑——2025年总营收948.27亿美元，同比下降3%，净利润同比暴跌46%。两款曾经定义特斯拉高端形象的旗舰车型，将在2026年第二季度末停产，让位给名为Optimus的人形机器人生产线。尽管2025年特斯拉全球交付量163.6万辆，同比下降8.6%，首次被比亚迪的226万辆超越，但市场反应却有些微妙：先是在财报公布后的1月29日大跌3.45%，然后又在科技股集体暴跌的1月30日，却逆势上涨了3.32%。显然，市场对于特斯拉这一场豪赌的态度，似乎也充满了矛盾和分化。一边是跌入冰点的汽车销量，一边是狂飙突进的AI野心，市场究竟该相信哪一边？财报中的“真相”从表面看，特斯拉的2025年成绩单充满危机。汽车业务收入695.26亿美元，同比下降10%；在三大主要市场，特斯拉都面临压力：美国市场销量同比下降超10%，欧洲市场前11个月注册量下降39%，中国市场销量62.6万辆，同比下降4.8%。汽车销售这个市场认知中的“主营业务”，眼下成为拉低公司总营收的主要板块。但冰冷的整体数据背后，好像隐藏着业务结构的质变。2025年第四季度，当汽车业务持续低迷时，特斯拉储能装机量创下历史新高，14.2GWh的部署量同比增长13.6%；能源业务全年营收128亿美元，同比增长26.6%，连续第五季度创纪录。更值得关注的是，FSD（全自动驾驶）订阅业务呈现爆发式增长。2025年末，FSD有效订阅用户达110万，同比增长40%，占累计交付量的约12%；在韩国上线仅一个月，当地用户的智能辅助驾驶行驶里程便突破100万公里。显然，特斯拉正在两条截然不同的轨道上狂奔。一条是竞争对手环伺、日益拥挤的电动车赛道，另一条是刚刚起步的物理AI世界。与此同时，也正是在这份“史上最差”财报的电话会议上，马斯克还宣布了将进行一场规模空前的资本豪赌的消息——2026年资本支出将超过200亿美元。200亿美元，对于谷歌、微软、苹果等巨头来说或许并不算什么，但对于特斯拉来说已是创纪录的水平，相当于特斯拉2025年全年净利润的5倍多。这些资金将集中投向AI芯片、超算集群、机器人生产线和储能设施。或者市场更关注的是，这可能是一个马斯克要在物理AI世界加速狂奔的信号（资本投入向其他科技巨头看齐）。马斯克甚至将公司使命更新为“创造惊人的富足”，并断言道：“我看到了特斯拉成为全球最有价值公司的路径。”200亿美元资本开支的背后马斯克“空前”的资本开支，决策背后究竟是什么？问题的答案，就隐藏在特斯拉各个业务线的连接处。在奥斯汀和旧金山湾区，特斯拉Robotaxi车队已超过500辆，并在2026年1月于奥斯汀正式开启无安全员的完全无人驾驶试运行。特斯拉自研的AI5与AI6推理芯片已取得进展，计划分别于2027年和2028年投产，其中AI5目标性能较AI4提升约50倍。更值得关注的是，特斯拉正在得克萨斯州超级工厂打造Cortex 2算力集群，2026年上半年，得州超级工厂的本地算力规模将提升超一倍。物理学中，“相变”指物质从一种形态到另一种形态的突变。而特斯拉似乎就正在经历一场商业领域的“相变”。2025年，特斯拉首次明确将自己定位为“物理世界AI公司”。马斯克的愿景是创建一个闭环系统：特斯拉车辆在实际道路行驶中产生海量数据，数据训练AI算法，优化后的算法通过OTA更新推送至车辆，提升自动驾驶能力，进而吸引更多用户使用FSD，产生更多数据。如今，这个商业“相变”的飞轮，正在马斯克的掌舵之下加速旋转。截至2025年底，FSD累计行驶里程已突破70亿英里，仅第四季度就贡献了10亿英里的增量；马斯克曾界定的“完全无人化”门槛约为100亿英里，特斯拉已完成70%的进程。人形机器人Optimus则是这个闭环的延伸。特斯拉计划在2026年年底前启动量产，最终规划年产能为100万台。马斯克甚至宣称，Optimus未来能实现5倍于人类的工作效率，成为“非凡的外科医生”。悲观派与乐观派的对决特斯拉股价在暴跌后又逆市上涨的背后，实则完美诠释了投资者对公司的分歧。而这种分化背后是两种不同的估值逻辑。传统汽车制造商估值的核心指标是销量、产能利用率和单车利润。按此标准，特斯拉的估值难言合理。2025年，特斯拉市盈率高达418倍，远高于传统车企。但AI乐观主义者认为，特斯拉应被视为一家AI公司，其商业逻辑的核心从“卖车”变成了追求“最低的每英里成本”和极高的“资产利用率”，因此其价值应基于数据优势、算法迭代速度和网络效应。William Blair能源研究团队主管杰德·多西海默估计，自动驾驶技术现在占特斯拉总价值的70%以上。这种分歧也体现在分析师对特斯拉的态度上。近期50位分析师中有30位建议“持有”或“卖出”，显示出专业投资者对特斯拉转型前景的谨慎态度。这种分歧的本源其实并非难以理解：伟大公司往往死于范式转移，而生还者必须主动引领范式转移。传统汽车产业正面临百年未有的变局。2025年，欧洲电动汽车约占所有新车销量的16%，美国电动汽车市场整体放缓。当行业从增量市场进入存量市场，价格战和利润下滑成为必然。马斯克的应对之策是典型的第二曲线战略：在核心业务尚未衰退时，主动培育新兴业务。但特斯拉的不同之处在于，其新旧业务之间存在强大的协同效应。汽车业务为AI发展提供真实道路数据、品牌认知和现金流；储能业务为AI基础设施提供稳定能源支持；AI技术反过来提升汽车产品的竞争力和溢价能力。这种生态化反效应是特斯拉最深的护城河。然而，历史表明，范式转移的成功率极低。比如，柯达发明了数码相机却未能成功转型，诺基亚曾引领智能手机潮流但最终掉队。特斯拉能否打破这一魔咒？关键取决于其AI技术商业化的速度与效率。结语：投资价值的重新定义特斯拉的2025年，对价值投资者提出了一个深刻问题：什么是真正的“价值”？是当前的盈利能力，还是未来的产业地位？是稳定的现金流，还是颠覆性的增长潜力？传统价值投资强调“安全边际”，即价格与内在价值之间的缓冲空间。但在新兴科技行业，内在价值本身难以量化，安全边际更多体现在技术领先性、生态构建能力和团队执行力上。特斯拉展示了一种新型价值投资框架：基于愿景而非短期业绩，基于生态系统而非单一产品，基于数据资产而非物理资产。这种框架下，特斯拉的业绩下滑不再是致命危机，而是转型阵痛，200亿美元的资本支出也不是盲目冒险，而是战略必需。因为，它主动选择了一条虽然更艰难但前景更广阔的道路。- End 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