AI企业分化：大厂“砸钱”，小厂“融资”，中厂“等机会”？

蓝鲸财经02-01

文｜互联网江湖刘致呈在钞能力的加持下，去年，腾讯的元宝、阿里的千问连续上演了两场后来者居上的名场面。而今年，AI大厂们更是豪气。先是字节旗下的火山引擎官宣成为2026央视春晚独家AI云合作伙伴，豆包AI将深度参与春晚互动。然后是腾讯宣布2月1日上线春节活动，用户上元宝App分10亿现金红包，单个红包金额可达万元。对此，马化腾直言“希望此举能够重现11年前微信红包的时刻”。接着，百度也宣布跟进马年...

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刘致呈在钞能力的加持下，去年，腾讯的元宝、阿里的千问连续上演了两场后来者居上的名场面。而今年，AI大厂们更是豪气。先是字节旗下的火山引擎官宣成为2026央视春晚独家AI云合作伙伴，豆包AI将深度参与春晚互动。然后是腾讯宣布2月1日上线春节活动，用户上元宝App分10亿现金红包，单个红包金额可达万元。对此，马化腾直言“希望此举能够重现11年前微信红包的时刻”。接着，百度也宣布跟进马年...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.lanjinger.com/d/1769688681931060576\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"IE00B543WZ88.USD","symbol_name":"NEUBERGER BERMAN CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.lanjinger.com/d/1769688681931060576","article_id":"2608400243","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2608400243","pubTimestamp":1769941632,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"lanjinger_stock","name":"蓝鲸财经"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"而今年，AI大厂们更是豪气。2025年，科大讯飞再次以210个中标项目、231568万元披露金额，在通用大模型厂商中实现中标数量与中标金额双第一。截止2025年前三季度，昆仑万维实现海外业务收入 54.1 亿元，占比达 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刘致呈在钞能力的加持下，去年，腾讯的元宝、阿里的千问连续上演了两场后来者居上的名场面。而今年，AI大厂们更是豪气。先是字节旗下的火山引擎官宣成为2026央视春晚独家AI云合作伙伴，豆包AI将深度参与春晚互动。然后是腾讯宣布2月1日上线春节活动，用户上元宝App分10亿现金红包，单个红包金额可达万元。对此，马化腾直言“希望此举能够重现11年前微信红包的时刻”。接着，百度也宣布跟进马年春节活动，投入5亿元红包，并且百度AI还将作为首席AI合作伙伴登上2026北京广播电视台春节联欢晚会……显然，在对待AI这件事上，大厂们依然都遵循着不出手则已，一出手就是绝杀的经典狩猎法则。其实，这些操作并没有明确针对谁，但是包括昆仑万维在内的不少二三线AI投资者们，却还是从中感到了一阵窒息：为了争夺用户规模，现在一个春节营销就能砸钱数十亿，那么等到AI商业模式明了的那一天，谁又能顶得住大厂们的进攻？这个春节过后，AI中厂们是不是该重新思考一下自身在AI行业中的生态位了？科大讯飞找到toG，昆仑万维选择海外？目前，比较典型的AI中厂，主要就是以昆仑万维、科大讯飞为代表的老牌AI玩家们了。特别是昆仑万维，其董事长方汉曾明确表示：“作为一家中型互联网公司，昆仑万维唯一的梦想是成为巨头。”那么面对大厂们的战略威胁，科大讯飞、昆仑万维是否找到了破局之法？答案还真有，并且各不相同。先说科大讯飞，在坚持国产化的道路上，科大讯飞逐渐搭建起了一个集算法、算力、数据等要素自主可控的AI核心技术研究和模型训练体系，也由此跑出了一条独特的AI to B/G业务优势路线。直接的表现就是，2024年，据第三方机构智能超参数发布的《中国大模型中标项目监测报告》，在通用大模型厂商中标排行榜中，科大讯飞披露中标金额84780.8万元，排名第一，断层式领先百度、阿里云们，成为2024年度标王。2025年，科大讯飞再次以210个中标项目、231568万元披露金额，在通用大模型厂商中实现中标数量与中标金额双第一。整体中标项目主要分布在教育、医疗、通信、能源和政务等行业，且央国企占了相当一部分比例。所以单就护城河而言，现在科大讯飞已经卷出来了一条路，并且还经过了AI消费市场和阿里、百度们的竞争考验，只要走下去就能够形成自己差异化的竞争优势。相比之下，昆仑万维则是取了个巧。在2015年上市后，昆仑万维为了绕开和中国互联网巨头们的竞争，所以就逐渐开始向海外发展，直到现在进入AI时代。截止2025年前三季度，昆仑万维实现海外业务收入 54.1 亿元，占比达 93.3%。很明显，相比于科大讯飞，昆仑万维并没有从自身内部找到一条新破局路径，只是换了个市场，换了个更容易找到细分增长机会的市场，比如南美、非洲等国家地区。整体发展路径跟传音手机颇为相似。不过这里就有个问题：在营收上，虽然近年来（除2021年和2022年外），昆仑万维确实都实现了连续增长，但是在此前互联网出海阶段，无论是国内，还是海外的互联网商业模式都是清晰的、被验证过的，昆仑万维要做的无非就是怎么打开市场，去做巨头们不愿意做的“脏活累活”市场。所以，过去昆仑万维才能不被海内外巨头们倾轧，并且还活的相当滋润。可在AI时代，这条路线的弊端就逐渐显现出来了。一、AI前路不明，探索难，防守难。由于现在AI技术路线、商业化路径都还不够清晰，所以提前入局的昆仑万维们不仅要开拓新的消费市场，还要摸索新的方向、验证AI商业模式……结果就是整体不确定性变得更大、试错成本更高。这对于弹药有限的AI中厂们来说，无疑成了一场马拉松式的艰难考验。此时，有人愿意踩坑趟路，大多数巨头们自然也是乐见其成的。不过接下来，当昆仑万维们跑通AI商业模式，并完成市场教育后，其能不能守住成功果实才是最大的挑战。毕竟远的不说，就说去年的外卖大战，当阿里、京东明确了外卖和即时零售的市场规模、商业化路径，且知道有人曾经跑通过、盈利过后，双方立马就拿出了数百亿的资金去all in。结果大家都看到了，哪怕是强如美团，也依然被阿里、京东硬生生撕开了一道口子。海外也是一样，甚至说昆仑万维要面临的谷歌、Meta们的战略威胁更严峻，更容易被摘桃子。而且这一次，在巨大的AI投入产出盈利压力下，即便昆仑万维能够继续捡“小而苦”的市场发力，但财务层面也需要慎重选择了。二、和AI巨头“撞衫”，硬碰硬并非上策。财报中，昆仑万维的业务线除了AI大模型外，还有AI浏览器、AI 社交、AI视频/短剧等多个方向。这些AI业务确实很有想象力，但问题在于，它们大多也都是巨头们不容侵犯的“后院”。现在之所以放任昆仑万维们发力，除了还没发育起来，以及大厂们也需要看到更多新方向之外，很重要的一点就是，阿里、字节、谷歌和OpenAI们正在发力AI时代的水电煤（算力、数据），也在聚焦通用大模型，探索Super APP之路，以抢占AI时代的入口权。可以看到，当阿里、腾讯们的AI基础设施搭建走上正轨后，很快，蚂蚁就推出了阿福，腾讯元宝则推出了元宝派，尝试探索AI社交，还有更早之前的快手可灵AI……很明显，即便是在国内社交市场上拥有垄断性实力的腾讯，在AI时代也怕被颠覆，那么海外同样做社交起家的Meta（facebook），又如何能接受卧榻之侧成长出一个新巨头？至于AI浏览器，AI视频和AI办公等业务，也同样如此。谷歌、奈飞和微软们可以接受一个啃硬骨头成长的AI中厂，但很难会放出一个可以威胁到自身战略地位的昆仑万维……三、生态短板：AI大厂和中厂的分水岭。和阿里、谷歌和微软们相比，以昆仑万维、科大讯飞为代表的AI中厂们非常吃亏的一点就是生态布局。比如阿里，由于生态布局足够全面，所以现在，用户一句话就能通过千问实现点外卖、定酒店和购物等各种功能需求的联动。这种系统性体验升级，不是任何一个单打独斗的AI产品（软件）所能提供的，哪怕是豆包和DeepSeek。又比如谷歌、微软们也可以把AI直接焊死在自己的操作系统和Office全家桶里，只给其他AI玩家们，留下一个“功能”空位，而不是一个独立“产品”空间……这样一来，昆仑万维们或许可以在功能层面实现创新突破，但难的是成长为一个新的AI大厂……AI中厂：不下牌桌，就还有机会？其实对于AI巨头们的战略威胁，昆仑万维的掌舵人——方汉，早在2024年时就已经有着充分的思想准备了。彼时，在《晚点》的专访中，方汉曾提到“我们 2022 年考虑 AIGC 的终局是什么？这里面绕不开的话题就是 Google、字节这样的巨头会做什么。”随后在解释昆仑万维们的破局机会时，他提到了两点：一个是做全球市场；另一个是做泛化的垂类。“移动互联网时代有两个特别好的例子：为什么巨头林立的现在，B站、小红书还能活得特别好？是因为这两家在垂类做到极致，再去泛化。小红书是美妆、穿搭起家，泛化到线下的酒旅；B站是从二次元泛化到中视频、长视频”。这几乎就是现在昆仑万维的主要发力方向。不过对于后者，这里有个非常遗憾的点是，方汉后来似乎只记住了垂类泛化，但却没有想起“做到极致”。按照2025年三季报的划分，现在昆仑万维的业务线，大的就有三类：AGI与AIGC业务、海外信息分发与元宇宙业务和投资业务。其中，在AI板块又分了9个子业务：AI大模型、AI智能助手、AI视频、AI音乐与音频、AI 游戏、AI社交、短剧业务、社交娱乐平台 StarMake、AI算力芯片。要知道，现在国内大厂这么布局AI的，也就一个阿里和百度（爱奇艺），但这两家的硬实力和资金弹药都不是昆仑万维所能比拟了。至于剩下的字节（豆包）、快手（可灵）、腾讯（元宝），一开始也都非常专注。特别是腾讯，直到前两天才又搞出来了个元宝派。相比之下，昆仑万维好像确实是有点分散资源和精力了。毕竟，单从研发创新的角度讲，一年15.43亿元的研发费用，到底是集中到一个垂类业务上发力，更容易打造出一条极致护城河？还是分散开来“雨露均沾”，更能让公司有安全感？这个问题答案，不能不值得方汉反思和关注……此外在对比完科大讯飞后，我们还注意到，现在昆仑万维All in AI的动作似乎有点太激进了，以致于过去自身最擅长的游戏业务基本盘，都快被归为“others”了。天眼查APP显示，在去年上半年，昆仑万维的收入基本盘，主要以“网络广告业务”“Opera 搜索业务”和“短剧平台业务”为主，营收占比分别为38.39%、18.51%和15.62%。而曾经最核心的游戏业务，对应营收则仅为2.39亿元，占比6.4%。当然这里要肯定的是，现在昆仑万维的新业务们表现非常亮眼，比如广告业务，在报告期内就实现营收同比增长61.05%。但即便如此，当前AI烧钱时代，无论是为了更有底气地加码AI，还是给自己留条增长后路，方汉似乎也不应该放任这块最擅长的现金牛业务持续衰落？同时作为对比，现在科大讯飞依然保留着录音笔、学习机的现金牛业务，并且还连续4年实现全国高端学习机销售额销量双第一。所以从这个角度看，无论是为了找准自身的AI生态位，还是给成为“新时代巨头”的梦想加一份筹码，昆仑万维和方汉是不是也该来一次战略大调整了？去精简业务版图、去集中力量办大事、去为自己筹集更多的战略弹药……事实上，美团创始人王兴曾说过：大多数人以为战争由拼搏组成，其实战争是由等待和煎熬组成。一位投资人也认为，现在AI大厂们正处在“上头”期，但“一旦一件事干了几年还拿不到结果”，内部张力会涌现，尤其是组织上的拉扯。这时如果创业公司还在场，可能有机会。总之，昆仑万维们是有可能实现梦想的，但前提是要能在牌桌上，等到机会女神降临的那一天……","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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