决定AI交易的大问题：OpenAI本轮能融多少钱？

华尔街见闻02-03

OpenAI能否顺利完成新一轮巨额融资，已不仅是其自身的生存问题，更成为了决定整个AI板块交易逻辑的关键变量。虽然市场传言显示OpenAI下一轮融资规模可能高达1500亿至1700亿美元，若该消息属实，将确保其资金链维持至2030年，并有望推动整个AI板块大幅上涨。然而，现实层面的不确定性正在增加。据华尔街见闻此前文章称，黄仁勋1月31日明确澄清，尽管芯片巨头“绝对会参与”OpenAI的最新...

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ACC","LU2506951792.HKD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"CRH\" (HKDHDG)       ACC","LU0553294199.USD":"BGF GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A5G\" (USD) INC","LU2242650005.HKD":"FIDELITY FUNDS GLOBAL MULTI ASSET DYNAMIC \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU1721428933.USD":"法巴全球经典环境基金RH MD Dis","LU2125909759.SGD":"Natixis Thematics Safety H-R/A SGD","SG9999014542.SGD":"United Income Focus Trust Acc SGD","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","LU2211815571.USD":"ALLIANZ POSITIVE CHANGE \"AT\" (USD) ACC","LU2125909916.SGD":"Natixis Thematics Safety R/A SGD","IE00B19Z3B42.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc SGD","LU0964807845.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME & GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0211328371.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (MDIS) (USD)   INC","LU0070302665.USD":"FRANKLIN MUTUAL U.S. VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","LU1923622291.USD":"Natixis Thematics Safety R/A USD","BK4598":"佩洛西持仓","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓"},"translate_title":"The big question that determines AI transactions: How much money can OpenAI raise this round?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDY":0.6,"NVDG":0.6,"ORCU":0.6,"NVD2.UK":0.6,"ORCS":0.6,"NVII":0.6,"NVDW":0.6,"2NVD.UK":0.6,"ORCL":1.9,"NVDS":0.6,"NVD":0.6,"NVIW.SI":0.6,"NVDD":0.6,"DIPS":0.6,"NVDX":0.6,"NVD3.UK":0.6,"NVDS.UK":0.6,"NVDQ":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"3NVD.UK":0.6,"ORCX":0.6,"SNVD.UK":0.6},"content_text":"OpenAI能否顺利完成新一轮巨额融资，已不仅是其自身的生存问题，更成为了决定整个AI板块交易逻辑的关键变量。\n虽然市场传言显示OpenAI下一轮融资规模可能高达1500亿至1700亿美元，若该消息属实，将确保其资金链维持至2030年，并有望推动整个AI板块大幅上涨。然而，现实层面的不确定性正在增加。\n据华尔街见闻此前文章称，黄仁勋1月31日明确澄清，尽管芯片巨头“绝对会参与”OpenAI的最新一轮融资，但金额绝非外界猜测的那样巨大。\n2月2日，据华尔街日报称，这一资金缺口引发了连锁反应，直接冲击了为OpenAI提供算力的甲骨文。甲骨文此前将与OpenAI签订的3000亿美元合同计入剩余履约义务（RPO），支撑了其股价早前的飙升。\n分析指出，如今，随着核心投资方出资意愿的调整，投资者开始质疑OpenAI是否有能力支付这笔天文数字般的费用，以及甲骨文将其全额计入账目的会计处理是否审慎。\n报道指出，目前，甲骨文正面临两难境地：一方面需通过发行股票筹集资金以捍卫其投资级信用评级，另一方面则需应对股价自去年9月高点腰斩后的股东稀释担忧。\n融资规模存在巨大不确定性\nOpenAI本轮融资的最终规模，是决定AI产业链资金流向的“胜负手”。\n2月2日，社交平台X上流传出的最新市场传闻称，OpenAI下一轮融资额可能高达1500亿至1700亿美元，这一乐观预期被视为整个AI综合体（AI complex）能否继续飙升的燃料。\n\n然而，融资端的实际进展充满变数。据华尔街日报上周五报道，由于英伟达内部存在疑虑，双方此前于9月披露的意向书——即Nvidia将在多年内向OpenAI投资高达1000亿美元的交易——已经陷入停滞。\n英伟达CEO黄仁勋1月31日明确澄清，当被问及投资额是否会超过1000亿美元时，他明确表示：“不，不，完全不是那样。”尽管他确认英伟达绝对会参与OpenAI的最新一轮融资，但出资规模的缩水已成定局。\n为了填补资金缺口，OpenAI正寻求其他巨头的支持。软银在去年12月向OpenAI投资225亿美元并将其持股比例提升至11%后，正在就进一步投资高达300亿美元进行谈判。\n此外，亚马逊也在与OpenAI就参与本轮融资进行接触。考虑到OpenAI估计背负着高达1.4万亿美元的各项承诺，其能否成功从上述投资者手中筹集到海量资金，将直接决定其履约能力。\n甲骨文的3000亿美元豪赌\nOpenAI与英伟达的关系长期以来被视为AI交易“循环性”的缩影：英伟达投资OpenAI，OpenAI利用资金向甲骨文购买算力，而甲骨文再用这些收入购买英伟达的芯片。\nOpenAI融资的不确定性，让其核心供应商甲骨文面临巨大的风险敞口。截至11月30日，甲骨文报告的剩余履约义务（RPO）为5230亿美元，这一数字约为其过去四个季度收入的九倍。\n值得注意的是，其中包含了与OpenAI相关的3000亿美元合同。去年9月初，正是因为财报显示RPO较上一季度翻了两番以上，甲骨文股价单日一度飙升36%。\n甲骨文发言人Deborah Hellinger表示：\n\n“英伟达与OpenAI的交易对我们与OpenAI的财务关系零影响。我们对OpenAI筹集资金和履行承诺的能力充满信心。”\n\n然而，根据会计准则，只有在管理层判断收款是“极可能（probable）”的情况下，记账方才能将这3000亿美元计入RPO。如果OpenAI无法全额支付，或者需要其他客户填补空缺，账面数据的可信度将大打折扣。\n这也给甲骨文的管理层带来了一个紧迫的问题：在即将发布的财务报告中，他们是否依然认定从OpenAI收回3000亿美元是“极可能”的？这一判断将直接影响市场信心。\n甲骨文资产负债表的保卫战\n在对OpenAI履约能力和自身债务水平的担忧中，甲骨文正在采取行动以维护其财务信誉。\n2月1日，Oracle宣布计划在今年发行高达200亿美元的普通股，这是其通过股权和债务融资筹集450亿至500亿美元更广泛计划的一部分，旨在扩展其云基础设施业务。\n报道称，这一举措虽然会稀释股东权益——且发生在股价较去年9月高点下跌约一半之后——但在AI交易充满不确定性的当下，增加股本缓冲被视为审慎之举。甲骨文目前正在举债建设数据中心，而这些投资在很大程度上依赖于与OpenAI签署的合同。\n市场的担忧已在债券市场显现。甲骨文目前的信用评级为BBB级，已被标普和穆迪列入负面观察名单，面临降级风险。甲骨文的部分债务（包括9月发行的10年期票据）近期的交易价格已接近垃圾债水平，且其债务违约保护成本飙升。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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