历史魔咒预警！巴克莱：美联储新主席上任半年内，标普500平均暴跌16%

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智通财经APP获悉，巴克莱分析显示，美联储即将到来的领导层更迭，凯文·沃什将于5月接任主席，而这很可能会给美国股市注入新的动荡，历史经验预示了这种波动风险。巴克莱全球股票战术策略主管亚历山大·奥特曼汇编的数据显示，自1930年以来，在新任美联储主席上任后的一、三和六个月期间，标普500指数平均回撤幅度分别达到5%、12%和16%。这样的暴跌幅度，比在任意随机选择的年份中标普500指数典型的峰谷跌幅...

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Barclays: The S&P 500 plummeted 16% on average within six months of the new Fed chairman taking office","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"SDS":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"IVOO":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"HIBL":0.6,"SPXS":0.6,".SPX":1.91,"SPYV":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"SPY":1.91,"UPRO":0.6,"IVW":0.6,"SPXL":0.6,"SPYM":0.6,"SPDN":0.6,"VTI":0.6,"MESmain":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"XDTE":0.6,"VOOV":0.6,"SPLV":0.6,"GPIX":0.6,"BMAY":0.6,"SH":0.6,"OEF":0.6},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，巴克莱分析显示，美联储即将到来的领导层更迭，凯文·沃什将于5月接任主席，而这很可能会给美国股市注入新的动荡，历史经验预示了这种波动风险。巴克莱全球股票战术策略主管亚历山大·奥特曼汇编的数据显示，自1930年以来，在新任美联储主席上任后的一、三和六个月期间，标普500指数平均回撤幅度分别达到5%、12%和16%。这样的暴跌幅度，比在任意随机选择的年份中标普500指数典型的峰谷跌幅都要大。奥特曼在给客户的报告中写道：\"市场可能在焦虑沃什先生是否被视作'鹰派'，但真正的考验更可能在5月之后到来。新任美联储主席通常在就职后的六个月内，会在某种程度上受到股市的'考验'。\"在总统特朗普提名沃什接替杰罗姆·鲍威尔的消息最初公布后，美国股市上周五下跌，因为交易员认为他是候选名单中最不鸽派的人选。沃什曾在2006年至2011年间担任美联储理事。若获得参议院确认，沃什将面对一个已然对美联储独立性感到不安的市场。此前特朗普已多次抨击鲍威尔，声称其放松货币政策的速度不够快。尽管沃什此前在央行任职期间以鹰派声誉著称，但后来他通过公开主张降低利率而与总统立场保持一致。他还表示，美联储应缩减其债券投资组合并重新思考其经济模型。领导层的变动将加剧货币政策路径本已相当大的不确定性。当前政策一直在高通胀与就业市场周期性降温迹象之间被拉扯。加拿大帝国商业银行资本市场股票及投资组合策略主管克里斯托弗·哈维表示，推动缩减美联储资产负债表上的部分资产持有规模(这将从金融体系中抽走流动性)可能会对风险资产产生负面影响。另一方面，摩根士丹利的迈克尔·威尔逊周一在给客户的报告中写道，沃什作为\"资产负债表鹰派\"的声誉也可能有助于冷却金价，并对美元形成适度支撑，\"为更广泛的政策目标按计划展开争取时间。\"","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2608302810","isCrawlerRequest":true}