郭明𫓹 × 库克：从iPhone内存涨幅100%，看供应链的“失控”

3C供应链02-03

TrendForce报道，2026年第一季度（1Q26）用于Apple iPhone的LPDDR内存价格在与苹果的谈判中出现强劲上行：三星电子推动季度环比（QoQ）涨幅超过80%，SK海力士的报价接近100%。这一涨幅是在季度环比口径下的结果，而非年度同比口径。Apple过去通常签署年度长期供货协议（LTA）来稳定内存价格及供应当前供需紧张环境下，协议“似乎只敲定到上半年”，导致报价周期缩短为“按...

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Cook明确表示内存成本上升已经开始对盈利带来影响。电话会议中库克指出：内存价格正在显著上涨，并已对当期与后续季度的盈利能力产生实质性影响相关成本压力将在下一财季（2026财年第二季度）体现得更加明显库克给出的48%–49%毛利率指引并没有下降（第一财季毛利率为 48.2%），这说明在内存价格上升等成本因素影响下，苹果仍预计通过产品组合、定价和服务等结构性优势，把整体毛利维持在较高区间。对行业的判断：Memory定价仍处于上行通道库克同时指出，公司“持续看到Memory市场的定价显著上行”，并表示Apple正在评估多种应对选项。这一判断与多家第三方机构的判断一致：内存厂商正在将更多产能与资本投入转向AI相关的高带宽内存（HBM）传统DRAM（包括手机与PC用内存）的供给因此被进一步压缩部分PC与手机品牌客户已经开始通过降低采购量或调整产品规格来应对价格冲击郭明𫓹观点：iPhone内存涨价的核心结论以下为郭明𫓹（Ming-Chi Kuo）于1月28日发布的核心内容1. 新闻提到的1Q26 LPDDR涨价幅度跟我认知的接近，NAND Flash的涨价幅度略低。2. iPhone的记忆体报价现在是按季谈，而非半年，所以iPhone的记忆体报价在2Q26还会再涨一次。目前看2Q26的QoQ涨价幅度约跟1Q26接近。3. 绝大部分非AI产业的品牌客户，就算愿意付钱也不见得能得到记忆体供应保证，所以Apple能谈成这样已经算很强了。4. 记忆体报价上涨会影响iPhone的毛利率。但Apple的策略是，趁记忆体市场混乱时，透过确定能拿到货与吸收成本的优势，提升市占率，后续再用服务业务赚回来。5. 记忆体报价上涨导致成本上升的议题，应该是投资人与分析师对本周Apple法说的关注重点之一。Apple对这件事的说法，可能对其他产业的股价造成的波动，会远高于对Apple自身与其供应链股价的影响。6. Apple目前对2H26新款iPhone18的定价策略是“尽可能不涨价”，至少起始价不动，有利营销宣传。7. Apple已经意识到，在记忆体跟T-glass后，可能还会有其他零组件也会受到AI服务器产业的影响而供应短缺。（详见文末链接）结语｜AI服务器重塑上游资源配置，苹果正不再具备绝对供应链优势随着AI服务器需求的快速放大，正在系统性改变上游产能分配与定价逻辑。无论是内存、先进制程还是关键材料，资源优先级正持续向AI相关应用倾斜。苹果已不再像过去那样，在所有核心环节都具备天然的绝对优先权。以晶圆代工举例，苹果已不再是台积电的第一大客户，开始重新评估并尝试启用英特尔代工方案，即便其良率与成熟度仍不及台积电 。不过这并非单纯的成本考量，而是对供应链安全性、谈判空间与长期选择权的再平衡。苹果抢购T-glass：玻璃纤维布如何卡住AI封装与折叠iPhone苹果供应链创新系列｜如何把3D打印做成量产工艺郭明𫓹｜苹果智能眼镜路线图，Vision Pro只是过渡，AI眼镜才是终局日更即时资讯 定期研究报告 优质付费人脉","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.42.0","shortVersion":"4.42.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2608146278","isCrawlerRequest":true}