季度业绩前瞻 | 阿里巴巴-W：电商增长放缓，云业务看好，预测第三季度营业收入2851.24~302

朝阳永续02-04

1. 阿里巴巴-W 第三季度业绩预期怎么样？截至2026年02月04日，根据朝阳永续季度业绩前瞻数据：预测营业收入2851.24~3026.73亿元，同比增长1.8%~8.0%；预测净利润254.18~360.08亿元，同比变动-48.3%~-26.7%；预测经调整净利润272.28~399.17亿元，同比变动-46.7%~-21.8%。关注后续财报数据披露后能否超预期，朝阳永续港股季度业绩前瞻...

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href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260204220803a47c3ef3&s=b><strong>朝阳永续</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>1.  阿里巴巴-W 第三季度业绩预期怎么样？截至2026年02月04日，根据朝阳永续季度业绩前瞻数据：预测营业收入2851.24~3026.73亿元，同比增长1.8%~8.0%；预测净利润254.18~360.08亿元，同比变动-48.3%~-26.7%；预测经调整净利润272.28~399.17亿元，同比变动-46.7%~-21.8%。关注后续财报数据披露后能否超预期，朝阳永续港股季度业绩前瞻...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260204220803a47c3ef3&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU0675040207.SGD","symbol_name":"JPM ASIA PACIFIC EQUITY \"A\" (SGD) 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growth slows down, cloud business is promising, operating income in the third quarter is predicted to be 2851.24 ~ 302","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"89988":0.6,"HBBD.SI":0.6,"09988":1.96,"ALBmain":0.6,"BABA":1.96},"content_text":"1.  阿里巴巴-W 第三季度业绩预期怎么样？截至2026年02月04日，根据朝阳永续季度业绩前瞻数据：预测营业收入2851.24~3026.73亿元，同比增长1.8%~8.0%；预测净利润254.18~360.08亿元，同比变动-48.3%~-26.7%；预测经调整净利润272.28~399.17亿元，同比变动-46.7%~-21.8%。关注后续财报数据披露后能否超预期，朝阳永续港股季度业绩前瞻数据将为投资者提供业绩鉴定。2. 阿里巴巴-W最新卖方观点国海证券 认为：阿里巴巴-W预计在FY2026Q3实现总营收2,910亿元，同比增长4%，经调整EBITA同比下降47%至291亿元。中国电商集团预计营收1,660亿元，同比增长10%，经调整EBITA_margin为22%。阿里国际数字商业集团预计营收416亿元，同比增长10%，经调整EBITAmargin为-3.1%。云智能集团预计营收432亿元，同比增长36%，经调整EBITA_margin为9%。长期看好云业务增长、传统电商稳健增长及国际电商业务减亏，但短期利润受即时零售投入和其他业务AI探索影响。预计FY2026-2028财年营收分别为10,364/11,327/12,352亿元，归母净利润分别为1,087/1,166/1,493亿元。维持“买入”评级。分业务来说：1)中国电商集团:预计FY2026Q3总营收同比增长10%，经调整EBITA同比下降40%至362亿元。2)云智能集团:预计FY2026Q3营收同比增长36%至432亿元，经调整EBITA_margin为9%，长期收入增长乐观。3)阿里国际数字商业集团:预计FY2026Q3营收同比增长10%，经调整EBITA为-13亿元。东吴证券 认为：阿里巴巴-W FY2026Q3收入预计达2929.03亿元，同比增长4.6%，但增速放缓。电商业务受宏观消费需求走弱影响，CMR增速预计降至3.0%。闪购业务亏损预计收窄，GMV和AOV稳步提升。云业务收入预计达428.52亿元，同比增长35.0%，EBITA_Margin维持在9.0%左右。公司在AI云领域布局深化，B端和C端均有所拓展。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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