中信证券：资金流出高峰已过银行股配置价值稳步回升

智通财经02-01

智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研报称，1月被动资金大幅流出，测算上周（2026年1月26日至30日，下同）及1月，11个银行挂钩相关ETF分别净流出3773亿元/9102亿元，影响银行股资金净流出约485亿元/1051亿元（测算值），导致年初至今板块下跌6.1%。当前板块分红率4.4%，抬升至高性价比区间，上周为单周最大资金流出周、但银行指数回升1%，隐含长线机构投资者配置意愿大幅提升。展望...

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href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1400249.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研报称，1月被动资金大幅流出，测算上周（2026年1月26日至30日，下同）及1月，11个银行挂钩相关ETF分别净流出3773亿元/9102亿元，影响银行股资金净流出约485亿元/1051亿元（测算值），导致年初至今板块下跌6.1%。当前板块分红率4.4%，抬升至高性价比区间，上周为单周最大资金流出周、但银行指数回升1%，隐含长线机构投资者配置意愿大幅提升。展望...</p>\n\n<a 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rebounded","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"600030":1.5,"06030":1.5},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研报称，1月被动资金大幅流出，测算上周（2026年1月26日至30日，下同）及1月，11个银行挂钩相关ETF分别净流出3773亿元/9102亿元，影响银行股资金净流出约485亿元/1051亿元（测算值），导致年初至今板块下跌6.1%。当前板块分红率4.4%，抬升至高性价比区间，上周为单周最大资金流出周、但银行指数回升1%，隐含长线机构投资者配置意愿大幅提升。展望2026年，预计1季度信贷开门红和银行经营格局良好，息差和资产质量预期稳定，营收和利润增速恢复，夯实核心权益资产价值。中信证券主要观点如下：板块资金流出高峰已过，配置价值开始显现1）1月被动资金集中流出，阶段性压力出清，后续冲击空间有限。该行测算，上周及1月，沪深300、上证50、中证银行等在内的11个银行相关指数挂钩ETF分别净流出3773亿元/9102亿元，对应影响银行股资金净流出约485亿元/1051亿元（测算值与实际或有所偏离）。其中，1月沪深300与上证50ETF份额分别回落48%和53%，被动基金减配压力已集中释放，后续冲击空间相对有限。2）估值与收益优势重新显现，行情企稳增强配置吸引力。上周为1月相关ETF净流出规模最大的单周，中信银行股指数（CI005021.WI）仍录得+0.87%，隐含机构投资者已开始积极布局；1月中信银行股指数（CI005021.WI）回撤幅度较大，板块市值加权股息率较年初抬升约40bps至4.4%左右，部分大市值蓝筹标的股息率回升5%以上，落入高性价比区间。上周两家城商行发布业绩快报，经营具备韧性上周，两家城商行（青岛银行、厦门银行）披露2025年业绩快报，数据显示：1）业绩保持增长，利润增速回升。青岛银行营收/归母净利润分别+7.97%/+21.66%，全年利润增速较Q1-Q3（+15.54%）进一步加速；厦门银行营收/归母净利润分别+1.69%/+1.52%，全年利润增速较Q1-Q3（+0.73%）回升。2）存贷扩张景气。2025年，青岛银行贷款/存款分别+16.53%/+16.41%；厦门银行贷款/存款分别+18.39%/+13.75%。3）资产质量维持优异，风险抵补能力总体充足。2025年底，青岛银行不良率0.97%，较年初显著改善（-0.17ppts），拨备覆盖率较年初大幅提升51ppts至292.30%；厦门银行不良率0.77%，拨备覆盖率312.63%。预计银行1季度开门红信贷投放积极，全年经营格局稳定该行认为，1季度银行延续“早投放、早收益”策略，通过考核前置及项目储备推动一季度“开门红”，该行预计新增信贷与上年同期相当：1）对公仍是信贷增长主引擎。从结构看，对公投放预计是主要增量来源，重点投向基建、先进制造业、科技金融及政策支持产业，零售端增长偏弱但随产品与客群结构调整有望企稳；2）息差预期稳定。受资产端收益率下行影响，净息差仍在下行通道，但在负债成本管控与资产结构优化支撑下，下行斜率有望放缓并逐步企稳；3）营收增速优于上年。该行预计净利息收入和营收增速继续改善，资产质量整体稳定支撑下，利润延续稳健增长。风险因素：宏观经济增速大幅下行；银行资产质量超预期恶化；监管政策超预期变化。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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中信证券：资金流出高峰已过 银行股配置价值稳步回升

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中信证券：资金流出高峰已过银行股配置价值稳步回升