英伟达要重新跑赢市场，需要什么条件？｜MS

第四维的梦想01-30

专注分享财经信息的专业社区，喜欢请点击下方名片关注。英伟达近期的相对跑输发生在市场对其短期预期仍然很高的背景下，这一点与以往不同。尽管眼下仍有一堵需要翻越的担忧之墙，但我们认为 Vera Rubin 的强劲放量将缓解市场对份额的疑虑，并预计从当前位置开始股价有望重新跑赢。我们对英伟达今年迄今为止的相对跑输其实有些意外，尤其是在 2025 年末表现偏弱之后。今年以来我们收到的最大高频问题之一，就是...

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MS","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"3NVD.UK":0.6,"NVDG":0.6,"NVD":0.6,"NVDX":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"NVDD":0.6,"NVDQ":0.6,"NVDY":0.6,"DIPS":0.6,"NVDW":0.6,"NVD3.UK":0.6,"SNVD.UK":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"NVD2.UK":0.6,"NVDS.UK":0.6,"NVII":0.6,"NVDA":1.98,"NVIW.SI":0.6,"2NVD.UK":0.6},"content_text":"专注分享财经信息的专业社区，喜欢请点击下方名片关注。英伟达近期的相对跑输发生在市场对其短期预期仍然很高的背景下，这一点与以往不同。尽管眼下仍有一堵需要翻越的担忧之墙，但我们认为 Vera Rubin 的强劲放量将缓解市场对份额的疑虑，并预计从当前位置开始股价有望重新跑赢。我们对英伟达今年迄今为止的相对跑输其实有些意外，尤其是在 2025 年末表现偏弱之后。今年以来我们收到的最大高频问题之一，就是这种跑输到底源于什么因素，以及这些压制因素在 2026 年会如何以正面或负面的方式得到化解。这一次与以往不同的是，在过去三年这轮强劲的 AI 趋势中，英伟达出现阶段性跑输时，往往伴随更偏短期基本面的担忧，而且更容易被证伪，例如 2024 年交期缩短是因为其他瓶颈浮现，市场担心 DeepSeek 叙事，担心机架 ODM 的库存过度堆积等，而事实证明这些都只是次要变量，真正的主线仍是持续的放量爬坡。而现在我们听到的这类担忧明显少了，因为大多数投资者对持续放量的主线是偏乐观的。我们听到有人提到今年英伟达的盈利能力可能达到每股 9 美元以上，而市场一致预期约为 7.75 美元，所以短期业绩超预期的空间看起来相当明确，也基本被市场充分理解。我们一般把短期股价表现的驱动因素概括为三点。第一是客户融资方面的担忧，以及英伟达在融资中的角色。第二是与 ASIC 以及 AMD 的竞争格局。第三是随着 AI 开始挑战整个半导体生态系统，投资者可选的 AI 受益标的明显变多，资金配置更分散。依次展开来看。第一是客户融资风险。与 OpenAI 相关联、但不属于半导体的股票，例如微软、软银、CoreWeave、甲骨文等，都出现了明显跑输，核心是市场担心资金来源以及 OpenAI 的竞争压力。在我们与投资者的交流中，大家对 OpenAI 的支出雄心有疑问，从而对英伟达在这些与 OpenAI 基础设施规划绑定更深的客户上的前景给予折价。以甲骨文为例，Keith Weiss 目前的模型显示，甲骨文在 2030 财年的每股收益可能比公司三个月前给出的 2030 财年 EPS 指引低 50%，原因是为了支撑其 5230 亿美元的 RPO 余额所需要的 3560 亿美元 IT 资本开支将带来新增利息支出与租赁负债，其中大部分 RPO 与 OpenAI 有关。甲骨文是英伟达的重要客户之一，如果投资者对其执行积压订单的能力，以及 OpenAI 支付能力持怀疑态度，英伟达的估值也会被动反映这类折价。虽然算力投资回报率一直是核心争议点，但近几个月市场更聚焦在基础模型竞争格局的变化，尤其是在企业端的竞争基准里，OpenAI、谷歌与 Anthropic 之间出现了轮动。但这里有一个重要的考量。如果客户的多年支出计划比几个月前的一致预期高出两到三倍，那么即便这些数字最终没有完全落地，其方向性也指向上行。更激进的支出轨迹意味着增长动能仍在，即便其中部分目标看起来过于激进。换个说法，最激进版本的客户支出计划定义的是牛市情形，而不是基准情形。基准情形依然是一个非常强劲的多年增长路径，客户想花得更多并不会自动构成下行逻辑。此外，我们预计大模型开发者的竞争将逐步摆脱近期赢家通吃的叙事。AI 应用本质上是一块巨大的新开垦市场，类似过去 24 个月 AI 半导体的演进，会阶段性出现所谓相对落后者，但在需求超过供给的环境下，落后者往往能快速追赶。大模型竞赛在今天看起来也很相似。Anthropic 在企业端的确表现强劲，但需要强调的是，OpenAI 在 2025 年末的收入 run rate 同比增长约 3.6 倍。OpenAI 也表示其消费者与企业收入结构大致从 70 比 30 变为 60 比 40，这意味着企业端收入增长大约 5 倍，达到约 80 亿美元的 run rate，与 Anthropic 约 90 亿美元的总 run rate 并没有本质差距。软件端胜负难以预测，但我们倾向于认为会出现多家赢家，而无论谁赢，英伟达都会是关键使能者。1A）英伟达在融资中的角色也引发了更多讨论，因为现实是英伟达正在对客户和生态伙伴进行大规模投资。对 OpenAI、Anthropic、CoreWeave 等的投资让市场产生疑问，同时也包括对英特尔等伙伴，以及 EDA 软件公司、通信基础设施公司的投资。我们认为黄仁勋在 CES 上谈到 Anthropic 的表述很有信息量。他说如果能重来，当初会在 Anthropic 上做出不同选择，因为最初 Anthropic 很想与他们合作，但也需要资金，而当时英伟达无法提供其所需规模的融资。反而是另外两家体量更大的公司做到了，即亚马逊和谷歌，因此它们在早期对 Anthropic 的支持更强，这也使得 Anthropic 在早期路径上更偏 ASIC。这些投资如今显然已成为战略的一部分，并会持续下去，但我们不认为这构成所谓循环。如果英伟达按当前公开或私募市场价格投资，要么这些公司未来有足够的股权价值支撑投入，要么没有。公司也指出 OpenAI 与英伟达的 10GW 合作是愿景式的，没有约束性承诺，但表达了 OpenAI 的意图。相比之下，信贷或租赁安排确实会更容易引发焦虑。但需要注意的是，英伟达目前并不存在租赁安排，只有与 CoreWeave 初始投资相关的一小部分信贷安排，且披露充分。本周对 CoreWeave 的投资仅为股权投资，不含信贷部分。尽管如此，公司似乎对未来出现一定的信贷敞口保持开放态度，例如针对其他规模可能更小的新云加速器，以及一些可能被视作租赁的安排。不过我们认为第一，不会出现全面的供应商融资模式，即长期延长付款条款。第二，相关敞口应当会保持完全透明。第三，整体规模会相对有限，或者通过结构设计把信用风险转移给其他主体。这可能只是语义问题，但我们不把它视为管理层为了推收入而做的花活。管理层的核心判断是英伟达收入到本十年末将走向一万亿美元量级，这会在生态系统中创造巨大价值，而英伟达希望参与这部分价值创造，并确保其在生态中继续保持主导地位。尽管如此，我们确实认为市场对其潜在融资意愿的担忧，会对股价形成阶段性压制。第二点是对 ASIC 与 AMD 的竞争疑问，但答案可能很快会通过 Vera Rubin 的推出给到。当前竞争判断很难，是因为我们覆盖的多家 AI 处理器公司今年都可能维持 75% 以上增长且受制于产能约束。大家都觉得自己在抢份额，而在 75% 增长的环境里，这种体感对所有人都成立。各种总拥有成本 TCO 研究对替代方案更便宜与否给出不同结论，但我们的观点是，仅凭厂商规格参数去评估 TCO 是严重简化。我们与 AI 生态内交流的对象普遍认为真实情况复杂得多，甚至有人说只有规模化部署后才真正知道 TCO。MLPerf 等基准更接近真实，但往往在部署后才出结果，而且表现不佳的公司也不会提交，信息并不完整。说到底，竞争问题很复杂。但英伟达在 2025 年确实在提升份额，符合我们的判断，今年其收入份额很可能接近维持在 85%。客户与英伟达保持的激进支出计划，某种程度上就是对真实 TCO 的投票。英伟达今年每个季度的环比增量收入，都会超过第二大公司全年的总收入。客户当然在推动替代方案，我们也在一定程度上惊讶于前沿模型开发者什么算力都想买的强烈意愿。在这种背景下，公司护城河的强度不易被量化验证，但 Vera Rubin 会更明确地指向这一点。我们近期调研显示，从 Blackwell 向 Rubin 的切换速度可能比我们最初预期更快。CES 上关于 Vera Rubin 系统可制造性的表述，例如板卡组装时间约 5 分钟，而 Blackwell 约 2 小时，增强了我们对其在 2026 年顺利放量的信心。在 AI 工作负载以极快速度演进的过程中，英伟达一直领先推出开发者需要的关键创新，包括机架级互连在领先速率下的全面实现，FP4 精度，以及通过 Rubin CPX 在硅层面实现 prefill 与 decode 分离。我们并不认为今年任何 ASIC 或通用竞争对手能把这些要素完整拼起来，我们的调研也指向市场对 Rubin 的热情明显高于竞争对手。第三点是，当 AI 把整个半导体生态推到极限时，投资者面对的是一个更靶子多的环境。过去三年中，市场曾阶段性偏好存储、晶圆代工或半导体设备，但受益范围相对有限。而我们的观点是 2026 年不同，因为生态系统正面临生产端限制，因此 AI 的持续增长会带来更广泛的外溢效应。这意味着有更多股票可以参与强劲的 AI 建设，尤其是偏商品属性的一些环节具备更高经营杠杆。但同时也要承认，如果英伟达增长放缓，上述很多股票都难以成立。某个阶段我们也会预期英伟达股价会追上这轮更广泛的生态行情。那么应当如何看待这只股票。我们对超配评级仍保持高信心，英伟达仍是我们最偏好的 AI 处理器标的，尽管我们同样超配 AVGO，并认为 AMD 与 MRVL 近期基本面也很强。当前英伟达的市盈率已经低于我们覆盖范围内多数成长股或周期股，尽管这部分折价在一定程度上可以理解，考虑到英伟达自身经营杠杆有限，但我们的调研强度与本轮周期中任何阶段相比都不逊色，我们对覆盖的 AI 处理器公司继续维持高增速的信心也很强。价值的释放需要时间，因为短期业绩超预期的空间似乎已被市场理解，但三月中旬的 GTC 可能成为一个重要催化剂，届时市场会获得更多关于 Vera Rubin 以及产品管线其他部分的信息。我们仍需要一个稳健的资本市场来支撑 AI 支出，我们预计会如此，同时也需要对任何潜在信贷协议保持高度透明，我们也预计公司会做到这一点。往期精彩回顾《最新的一些思考...》（周末删除，注意保存）《半导体测试经济学进入新阶段了吗？》《Intel Q4 业绩电话会有哪些看点？》差不多每天更新，公众号现在是乱序推送，需要及时收到推送的朋友可以关注并星标公众号！专注分享财经信息的专业社区，喜欢请点击下方名片关注备用号。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; 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