存储芯片赚疯了！曝又要涨价

芯东西01-29

HBM4大战在即，硝烟弥漫。作者 |ZeR0编辑 |漠影存储芯片正在变天。芯东西1月29日报道，今日新公布的财报显示，SK海力士2025年营业利润首度超越三星，创下47.2万亿韩元（约合人民币228亿元）的历史新高。三星2025年营业利润为43.6万亿韩元（约合人民币211亿元），其中存储业务创造了24.9万亿韩元（约合人民币121亿元）的营业利润。今日，全球两大存储芯片巨头三星与SK海力士相隔1...

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It is revealed that the price will increase again","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"NVD3.UK":0.6,"SNVD.UK":0.6,"3NVD.UK":0.6,"NVD":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"2NVD.UK":0.6,"MUD":0.6,"NVDY":0.6,"NVDX":0.6,"NVIW.SI":0.6,"SSNLF":1.95,"NVII":0.6,"MU":0.9,"NVDQ":0.6,"DIPS":0.6,"NVDW":0.6,"MULL":0.6,"NVDG":0.6,"NVD2.UK":0.6,"NVDS.UK":0.6,"NVDD":0.6},"content_text":"HBM4大战在即，硝烟弥漫。作者 |ZeR0编辑 |漠影存储芯片正在变天。芯东西1月29日报道，今日新公布的财报显示，SK海力士2025年营业利润首度超越三星，创下47.2万亿韩元（约合人民币228亿元）的历史新高。三星2025年营业利润为43.6万亿韩元（约合人民币211亿元），其中存储业务创造了24.9万亿韩元（约合人民币121亿元）的营业利润。今日，全球两大存储芯片巨头三星与SK海力士相隔1小时举行财报电话会议，尤其在谈到今年AI内存市场角逐的焦点HBM4时，火药味相当浓呛。这边全球HBM芯片“一哥”SK海力士自陈优势，说HBM需要技术、量产能力、质量保证和供应执行能力，而自己除了技术领先外，积累的量产经验和客户信任度都是短时间内难以赶上的。SK海力士称2025年HBM收入同比增长1倍以上，HBM4正按照与客户约定的时间表推进，封装技术竞争力也将成为其HBM4的优势。那边三星隔空反击，宣布正按计划推进HBM4量产，计划在今年2月开始交付，还强调“尽管客户对性能的要求从最初的开发阶段到现在有所提高，但我们并未进行任何重新设计”。而三星提到的“重新设计”，似乎就是在针对SK海力士。此前，SK海力士曾收到其最大客户英伟达关于HBM4样品产品的反馈，并在产品开发和量产过程中对部分工艺进行了调整。三星称，自家产品已顺利通过更为严格的HBM4规格要求，所有已具备量产条件的HBM产能均已被客户预订，预计2026年HBM销量将同比增长3倍以上。以AI为中心的内存市场结构性转变正在加速。过去半年，三星股价已上涨128%，SK海力士股价更是上涨了228%。两家巨头均预计今年HBM市场需求将保持强劲，AI内存热潮将持续全年，各类存储产品仍将出现严重短缺。SK海力士正努力提高产能以满足快速增长的DRAM需求，计划大幅增加资本支出。三星也表示2026年将加大对内存产能的投资，但预计2026年和2027年供应扩张有限。AI的快速发展还提振了芯片代工业务。三星芯片代工业务的目标是在2026年实现两位数的营收增长，预计2nm芯片订单量将增长约130%，该公司正在积极与美国和中国的客户进行洽谈。其第二代2nm工艺研发进展顺利，预计将于今年下半年量产；1.4nm工艺正在研发中，计划在2029年量产。01.传SK海力士拿下英伟达HBM4约70%订单，英伟达AMD完成对三星HBM4的验证当前SK海力士在HBM市场处于统治地位。韩媒报道称，SK海力士已从英伟达获得超过2/3的HBM供应订单，将用于今年的Vera Rubin旗舰AI计算平台。据消息人士透露，英伟达将其用于先进AI架构的HBM4需求的约70%分配给了SK海力士，高于市场此前估计的50%左右，预计2026年将实现这一目标。消息人士还说，英伟达和AMD最近也完成了对三星HBM4产品的质量测试，预计将于2月正式供货。此前有消息称，三星正增加对博通等美国主要客户的HBM供应。三星在HBM内存研发方面落后于SK海力士，但如今它重振旗鼓，正力图凭借HBM4重夺市场领导地位。三星、SK海力士都声称自家HBM4实现了业界最快的稳定速度——11.7Gbps。不同的是，三星HBM4采用自研1c DRAM，并将HBM4集成到4nm制程芯片上，从而提升了性能和量产稳定性。SK海力士HBM4为确保稳定性，采用了与HBM3E相同的第五代1b DRAM芯片，其HBM4基础芯片采用台积电12nm工艺。三星在电话会议中透露，应一位重要客户的要求，其11.7Gbps HBM4产品的出货将于2月开始，客户正在进行认证测试。该公司计划于2026年中期开始提供标准HBM4E产品的样品，下半年推出基于HBM4E核心芯片的定制产品。据其管理层分享，目前市场对16层HBM产品的需求有限，公司暂无计划大规模商业化上一代16层HBM3E或HBM4产品。三星已掌握可用于量产的16层封装技术，并已交付基于HBM4的铜混合键合样品，近期重点工作包括扩大HBM3E产能，并积极投资以确保HBM4和HBM4E的1c nm产能。这意味着2026年HBM4市场竞赛将剑拔弩张。市场研究机构Counterpoint Research预计，2026年，SK海力士将占据全球HBM4市场54%的份额，其次是三星电子（28%）和美光科技（18%）。02.SK海力士HBM收入翻倍，三星半导体部门营业利润狂飙465%在内存芯片短缺和AI服务器强劲需求提振下，SK海力士、三星电子均公布了创纪录的季度收益。第四季度，SK海力士营收增长66.1%至32.8万亿韩元，营业利润飙升137.2%至19.2万亿韩元，营业利润率高达58%，盈利能力令人瞩目。DRAM业务方面，SK海力士在2025年3月实现全球首批HBM4样品出货，为行业第一；传统DRAM已开始量产1c nmDDR5，并开发了基于1b nm 32Gb的业界最高密度256GB DDR5 RDIMM。受下半年eSSD需求复苏推动，其NAND年度营收也创下新高。三星同样在第四季度业绩创历史纪录：营收达93.8万亿韩元，同比增长23%，环比增长9%；营业利润达到20.1万亿韩元，同比增长208%。由于新款智能手机的上市效应减弱以及激烈的市场竞争，三星设备体验（DX）部门的收入环比下降了8%。而AI蓬勃发展推动的内存价格飙升和供应紧张，抵消了智能手机、电视和家电业务的季节性疲软。三星DS事业部（包括其存储器、晶圆代工和系统LSI业务）第四季度表现亮眼，营收环比增长33%，达到44万亿韩元；营业利润同比增长超过465%，达到16.4万亿韩元，占集团总营业利润的81%以上。其中，内存业务是业绩增长的主要驱动力。三星在新闻稿中写道，第四季度，内存业务通过满足强劲的传统DRAM需求，并在整体价格上涨的情况下扩大HBM销售，实现了季度收入和营业利润的历史新高。第四季度，其DRAM平均售价环比上涨约40%，NAND闪存平均售价也上涨了20%左右。SK海力士称其HBM4量产正按照客户约定的时间表进行，并准备交付优化的定制HBM，扩大高密度SV DRAM等高价值产品的生产，加速1c nm迁移以扩展AI内存产品组合，并在NAND方面通过下一代245TB产品引领超高密度AI存储市场。三星亦计划加大力度推动AI相关的NAND闪存需求，预计用于AI推理的基于TLC闪存的PCIe Gen 6固态硬盘的需求将大幅增长。其战略将专注于TLC产品，以获取更高的利润率，并提高服务器固态硬盘在NAND闪存总收入中的份额。03.服务器DRAM报价上调60%~70%，NAND闪存、LPDDR价格翻倍三星在电话会议中透露，虽然内存价格飙升对其芯片业务有利，但成本上升预计也会对其智能手机和显示业务产生影响。三星高管谈道，为了降低市场波动风险，公司被迫有选择地回应客户的供货合同请求。三星优先向服务器客户供应DRAM芯片，PC和移动客户则排在后面。这意味着，今年有存储芯片采购需求的企业，将陷入一场比拼财力的生存竞赛。据韩媒报道，三星电子和SK海力士计划将2026年第一季度服务器DRAM的报价相较2025年第四季度上调60%~70%。三星第一季度NAND闪存供应价格上调超过100%。该公司已于2025年底前完成与主要客户的供应合同谈判，修订后的价格将于2026年1月生效。另据DIGITIMES援引知情人士消息，SK海力士也已实施了类似幅度的NAND闪存价格上调。还有报道称，闪迪也计划在2026年将NAND闪存价格上调100%。据ZDNet援引业内消息人士报道，三星和SK海力士通过谈判，向苹果公司供应的低功耗DRAM（LPDDR）价格大幅上涨，较上一季度几乎翻倍。具体而言，三星提出的涨幅超过80%，而SK海力士提出的涨幅约为100%。此前苹果一直以相对较低的价格采购LPDDR，但自去年中以来，内存供应短缺问题日益严重，苹果似乎难以扭转价格上涨的趋势，而三星和SK海力士在今年第一季度成功实现了DRAM业务利润最大化。一位半导体行业内部人士解释说：“苹果通常每年都会签订内存长期协议（LTA），但考虑到最近的内存危机，据我了解，他们只完成了今年上半年的单价谈判。”他预计随着下半年新产品的推出，价格可能会进一步上涨。另一位消息人士称，今年第四季度LPDDR价格已经上涨了约40%，第一季度涨幅还会更大，至少达到60%。市场研究公司TrendForce预测，通用DRAM价格将在第一季度环比上涨55%~60%。据Wccftech援引业内消息人士报道，近几周来，各大科技公司的采购团队频繁前往韩国，以确保DRAM的供应，寻求签订能够锁定2~3年固定供应量的长期协议，但这些努力大多以失败告终。三星和SK海力士正在拒绝签订长期供货协议，坚持按季度签订合同，并大幅涨价。除了向主要服务器DRAM客户提价外，供应商们还在寻求对PC和智能手机DRAM产品进行类似的提价。因此，预计短期内内存短缺和价格上涨的压力将持续存在。据报道，服务器级64GB RDIMM内存条的现货价格已攀升至2550美元，涨幅超过20%。这一趋势表明，制造商的官方报价可能接近1000美元，且季度环比涨幅可能达到90%~100%。网上也流传着三星向客户发出通知的消息，文件暗示三星内存产品可能涨价80%。虽然三星尚未公开证实具体细节，但业内人士预计第一季度价格将大幅上涨。一些服务器供应链厂商估计第一季度RDIMM价格涨幅可能超过70%甚至80%，因为大多数供应商2026年的产能配额已基本售罄。04.结语：存储大厂积极抓住AI时代机遇存储芯片企业若想保持其市场地位，就必须适应AI时代。本周三，SK海力士宣布将成立一家总部位于美国的新公司，专注于AI解决方案，并承诺至少投入100亿美元，以抓住AI新增长引擎带来的机遇。该公司将通过重组其美国企业级固态硬盘子公司Solidigm来创建新的AI公司。这家美国新实体暂定名为“AI Company”或“AI Co.”，将作为SK集团AI战略的中心。已经凭借抓住AI时代红利崛起的SK海力士，还在持续加快投资步伐，包括已承诺投资近130亿美元在韩国建设一座先进封装厂。三星半导体部门预计AI和服务器需求将继续增长，从而带来更多结构性增长的机会，为此将继续专注于盈利能力，重点发展高性能产品。来源：DIGITIMES，Chosunbiz，ZDNET，Wccftech","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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