微软崩了，Meta 爆了

芯调查01-31

尽管同样身处激烈的人工智能（AI）竞赛，市场对微软与 Meta 的反应却呈现出明显分化。两家公司于当地时间 28 日同步发布财报，均交出了超出市场预期的亮眼成绩单，也都持续加码 AI 投入，但股价走势却南辕北辙。这一反差清晰表明，资本市场关注的焦点，已不再只是投入规模本身，而是AI 投资何时、以及能否真正转化为利润。微软：业绩超预期，但市场担忧回报节奏微软第四季度营收达到813 亿美元，同比增长 ...

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日盘后交易中一度暴跌近7%，常规交易时段跌幅扩大至9.9%。华尔街日报指出，包括微软在内的科技巨头，正面临投资者对AI在盈利模式尚未完全清晰之前，便大规模扩建数据中心建设的集体不安。Meta：AI 已实现商业闭环，资本愿意为扩张买单与微软形成鲜明对比的是，Meta 在宣布更激进 AI 投资计划的同时，股价却迎来大幅上涨。在财报电话会议上，Meta 表示，今年 AI 相关资本支出将高达1350 亿美元，几乎是去年的两倍，并预计明年资本支出将进一步增至1620 亿–1690 亿美元，用于扩建AI 数据中心、采购算力设备以及吸纳顶级人才。即便如此激进，市场依旧给予积极反馈。财报发布后，Meta 股价盘后上涨约9%，29 日常规交易时段最终收涨10.4%，显示投资者更关注其业绩兑现能力，而非短期成本压力。财报数据显示，Meta 第四季度营收598.9 亿美元，同比增长 24%，其中核心广告业务收入581.37 亿美元，同样增长 24%，成为业绩增长的核心引擎。更重要的是，Meta 已成功将 AI 深度嵌入广告投放系统。基于AI 的推荐算法与精准定向，不仅提升了广告曝光效率，也同步抬高了广告单价，使得用户平均收入（ARPU）实现两位数增长。这意味着，AI 投资已在广告业务中形成清晰的盈利闭环。正因如此，市场对Meta 旗下 Reality Labs（虚拟现实、智能眼镜等）累计高达600 亿美元的亏损反而表现出更强包容度。Wedbush 分析师 Scott Devitt 直言：“Meta 是少数几家能够将AI 驱动型营收实时反映到利润中的公司之一。”华尔街日报也指出，投资者实际上已经默许并认可了Meta 的激进扩张策略。整体来看，这轮财报清晰地展现了资本市场对AI 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