内存价格飙升冲击盈利苹果(AAPL.US)财报将成行业“压力测试”风向标

智通财经01-29

智通财经APP获悉，苹果公司(AAPL.US)股价持续承压，投资者正试图评估急速上涨的内存芯片价格对其利润的侵蚀程度。这家iPhone制造商将于周四盘后公布财报，届时市场将获得关键线索。自去年12月2日触及高点以来，苹果股价已下跌逾10%，是同期“科技七巨头”中表现最差的，也是标普500指数点数层面最大的拖累因素。该股已连续八周下跌，上次出现更长的连跌纪录还要追溯到1993年。此次抛售部分源于市场...

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vane","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":1.98,"MACW.SI":0.6},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，苹果公司(AAPL.US)股价持续承压，投资者正试图评估急速上涨的内存芯片价格对其利润的侵蚀程度。这家iPhone制造商将于周四盘后公布财报，届时市场将获得关键线索。自去年12月2日触及高点以来，苹果股价已下跌逾10%，是同期“科技七巨头”中表现最差的，也是标普500指数点数层面最大的拖累因素。该股已连续八周下跌，上次出现更长的连跌纪录还要追溯到1993年。此次抛售部分源于市场担忧，作为智能手机和平板电脑关键部件，内存芯片成本的飙升将挤压苹果的利润率和收益。这一问题已盖过了其人工智能计划的利好，并预计在2026年下半年供应合同到期时变得更加突出。预计在可预见的未来，旺盛的需求将使内存价格保持高位。“我们曾见过苹果面临内存价格压力，但从未以如此前所未有的速度。”持有大量苹果股份的Janus Henderson高级分析师Shaon Baqui表示，“市场明显不确定且担忧，我们将在内存方面看到更多坏消息。”自去年9月底以来，动态随机存取存储器(DRAM)芯片现货价格指数已上涨近400%，反映了随着更多人工智能数据中心建设带来的飙升需求。周二，苹果供应商Qorvo Inc.给出的业绩展望远低于预期，并在电话会议中提及“一些影响客户生产计划的内存定价和供应限制”。苹果的体量意味着其对供应商有强大的议价能力，并有一定能力将成本上涨转嫁给消费者，尤其是对高端机型的需求依然坚挺的情况下。但内存价格的陡峭上涨使其面临艰难选择。根据科技研究公司IDC数据，内存占智能手机制造成本的10%至20%，该公司称内存价格上涨对硬件公司是一场“危机”。“苹果可以缓解部分影响，但其可用的手段有限。”Baqui指出，“提高售价可能破坏需求。明确了解对利润率的冲击至关重要。”目前，华尔街正采取观望态度。根据数据，过去一个月，市场对苹果2026财年净利润的普遍预期几乎没有变化，对营收和毛利率的预期也保持稳定。如果这些假设因内存成本而下调，将意味着尽管苹果股票估值已高于主要指数及其自身历史水平，但其实际估值可能比看起来更高。内存问题浮现之际，投资者对这家科技巨头的情绪复杂。苹果上一份财报给出了乐观的预测，尽管其中因中国区销售额意外下滑而蒙上阴影。然而，在苹果与Alphabet Inc.旗下谷歌达成一项为期多年的协议，由谷歌为包括Siri在内的苹果AI技术提供支持后，华尔街对其AI布局的看法正转向积极。此消息被视为验证了苹果未像其他科技巨头那样激进投入AI建设的策略。“我喜欢苹果在支出方面的做法。”持有苹果股票的投资机构Aptus Capital Advisors的投资组合经理David Wagner表示，“此前每个人都关注其在AI领域的布局，但这表明它并未落后。”苹果股价目前交易于约30倍的预期市盈率，高于其22倍的10年平均水平，也高于纳斯达克100指数和“科技七巨头”的平均估值倍数。苹果2026财年(截至今年9月)营收预计将增长8.7%，这将是自2021年以来的最快增速，但预计在接下来的三个财年增速将逐年放缓。根据市场研究，整个科技行业2026年营收预计将增长约19%，其中科技硬件和设备子行业预计增长11%。尽管如此，即便该公司估值高企且增长相对温和，许多投资者仍视其股票为科技板块中相对安全的避风港。其健康的资产负债表、稳定的盈利和强劲的现金流使其成为投资组合中的稳定持仓。“显然估值处于高位，但相较于‘七巨头’中的其他公司，苹果的业务看起来非常有韧性。”Janus 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内存价格飙升冲击盈利 苹果(AAPL.US)财报将成行业“压力测试”风向标

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内存价格飙升冲击盈利苹果(AAPL.US)财报将成行业“压力测试”风向标