特斯拉加速告别“豪华车公司”那条路

华尔街见闻01-29

特斯拉做了一件在传统汽车行业几乎不可想象的事。 2026年1月29日，特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克宣布，2026年资本支出将“非常大”；将终止Model S和Model X项目。 2025 年特斯拉全年交付约 160多万辆中，包括 Model S/X 在内的 “Other Models” 只有约5万辆出头，量级已边缘化。 Model S 和 Model X这两款曾经定义了特斯拉早期“高端电动车”理念。...

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Roadster将在4月首次亮相。\n这款最早在2017年发布概念与预订计划，历经接近10年跳票与沉默，如今又被重新拉回舞台中央。这更多是对极端性能与技术符号的再一次展示，高昂的价格大概率与规模化产品层级无关。\n这背后反映的并不是单一产品的成败，而是企业经营逻辑的明确。\n1.旗舰车退役\nModel S 和 Model X 诞生的年代，电动车仍然处在“技术展示品”的位置。\n续航、性能、智能化、设计感，每一个维度都需要一个标杆产品去打破市场偏见。\n从这个意义上说，S/X 的角色更像是产业教育工具。\n它们的任务不是走量，而是证明电动车可以比燃油车更快、更智能、更具未来感。\n十年之后，这个任务已经不再稀缺。\n高端电动车市场里，传统豪华品牌完成电动化转型，新势力构建自己的高端叙事，消费者对“电动=低端”的认知早已翻篇。\n当示范意义消失，旗舰车就要被放在一个更现实的位置来权衡，即在公司规模、成本结构和技术飞轮中，究竟处在什么位置。\n从制造体系看，S/X 与 Model 3/Y 属于两代产品哲学。\n前者诞生于特斯拉仍然以工程突破为核心目标的阶段，起初平台复杂、定制化程度高、零部件体系分散。\n后者则是为自动化、降本和全球复制而生，强调平台。\n当一家公司的增长引擎从技术领先转向追求规模效率，复杂度就会变成系统成本。\nS/X的年销量在特斯拉披露中已和Cybertruck、Semi共同被纳入“Other”序列，与Model Y单一车型的百万级规模相比，已经不再具备资源配置上的优先级。\n从资本效率角度看，同样的工程团队、产线资源和供应链议价能力，是投向低产量、高复杂度的旗舰车型，还是投向可以持续放大规模和数据的主力平台？\n特斯拉习惯了第一性原理的答案显然偏向后者。\n2.去品牌、效率中心与挑战\n传统车企经营的是品牌结构。\n低端车型负责走量，中高端车型负责利润，旗舰车型负责天花板和溢价能力。哪怕销量有限，旗舰车依然是整个价格体系的支点。\n特斯拉更像是在经营一个效率系统。包括制造效率、供应链整合能力、软件与数据规模、自动化水平，以及未来潜在的平台型业务。\n在这个结构里，产品的价值不只体现在毛利率上，而体现在它能否放大系统的规模效应。\nModel 3/Y是数据入口、制造平台和全球供应链复制的核心节点，相比之下已难有规模的S/X对飞轮转速的贡献有限。\n其实这件事放在特斯拉的对外叙事中，并不令人意外。\n自动驾驶、算力平台、能源系统和人形机器人，开始取代“下一代车型”，成为资本市场关注的核心变量。\n从“卖硬件”走向“运营平台和系统”，这是一种典型的产业跃迁故事。\n这个框架下，旗舰豪华车的象征意义徒有虚表，它既不能显著贡献数据规模，也难以成为新技术的规模化试验场，反而会占用工程资源和产线空间。\n从企业内部视角看，这不仅是产品线调整，更是一次资源重分配。\n放弃旗舰产品线，并不是没有代价。\n一方面，特斯拉在高端市场的品牌锚点会被削弱。\n当价格体系不再由“天花板车型”托底，中端产品在价格战中的承压能力，会比传统豪华车体系更强地暴露出来。\n另一方面，未来叙事的兑现节奏本身具有不确定性。\n自动驾驶和机器人属于长周期技术路线，一旦商业化进展放缓，公司的估值逻辑仍然会被拉回“卖车为主”的现实框架中。\n在这种情况下，没有高端产品线作为利润缓冲区，周期波动会更直接地反映在财务报表上。\n从产业视角看，S/X 的退场更像是特斯拉对自身定位的又一次明确表态。\n它早已不再试图成为一家品牌梯度完整的汽车集团，而是铁了心押注成为一家以制造为基础、以AI和自动化为上层结构的工业科技公司。\n成，则是新物种；但不成，仍要回到汽车产业的竞争逻辑中，重新接受规模、成本和周期的检验。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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